is grading inflation a big problem with U.S. coins?

I collect ancients only* (a few cool moderns here and there, modern being 1500's to the end of struck coinage), and stated grade isn't terribly important to most ancient collectors, which is why slabs also aren't terribly popular with collectors.

That being said, I buy coins because of other factors, how they look (are they cool?), etc. Many ancients dealers don't bother to include a grade (like someone recently pointed out, the grades were more important in the days of fixed price paper lists, with no pictures), but some do. I've been noticing that there's a bunch of grade inflation. The grades certainly aren't the same as when I was entering the hobby. The European dealers seem especially egregious.

Example: https://www.vcoins.com/en/stores/ae..._ef_rome_103_bc_warriors/1999219/Default.aspx

This is not to pick on said dealer, it's a random example, but EF minus! It's certainly minus! It's a handsome coin, but maybe F+/F to my old-school grading scale.

I have very few slabs, maybe a dozen, all presents. However, I also noticed the same thing. I'd disagree with 60% of the grades, although it usually wasn't nearly as egregious as above. For example, a 'choice VF' Antoninianus was F+ to my eyes, etc. I'd jailbreak them all if I were less of a klutz, but that's another matter..

Has this grade inflation been happening with U.S. coins? Even shades of difference in a grade are important in U.S. coins. A wild grade would be somewhat of a problem.

 

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"Grade-flation" has been happening for U.S. coins for quite some time. It has been gradual, but real if you have been handling slabbed coins for over 30 years as I have been doing. What used to be AU-58 is now often becoming low end Mint State. That situation has existed for a while, but it seems to be getting more common. What used to be EF is now AU-50, and I have been really disappointed with the coins I see in the more recently graded EF-40 pieces.

I am "an American grader." That means that I have always been more liberal than the classic European graders. My EF was their VF, and my AU was their EF. The only American graders who use "European standards" are the American Coppers Club people. BUT even they have to adjust with prices that are higher than many that appear in the popular catalogs.

In recent years, as American slab companies have gotten into the foreign and ancient coin markets, the European standards seem to softened. In general, I have found that the NGC grades for ancient Roman coins were pretty much in line with my opinions. Since I prefer my ancient and hammer British coins raw, I have often avoided the slab market, but from what I have seen, the slabbed coins were in-line with my opinion.

The coin in the OP link is over graded in my opinion. I would give it a VF-25 or so, with comment that it has been cleaned. I know that cleaning is not such a big deal for ancient coins, although it is possible to hit my limit for cleaning. This coin is close to it.

Let's see what you think of this piece.



I bought this one in an American auction that is run by a dealer who has British connections. It was graded EF. It has been cleaned, but not polished, a bit and is brighter than it seems in this photo. Since I was the only person who bid the minimum which was $400 in May of 2021, I figured I probably paid too much.

Your opinions would be interesting.

 

Well, I'm not a high-end collector in the ancients market, but here's my opinion, for what it's worth..

I'd rate it VF. VF/aVF, if one wanted to be strict. Well, most ancients are cleaned. You'd have a hoard patina if it weren't, which can be cool (see the last post on the raw/slab podcast thread). I guess what you're saying is that it isn't toned? 'Cleaned' generally isn't noted in vcoins ancient silver listings. Toned generally is, however.

That being said, 80% of the posters on numisforums don't even list a grade, even the high-end people.

Very interesting... Now, the European dealers (at least on vcoins) are the ones who are even more egregious about over-grading.

I'd have to look up that particular piece, but $400 was a bit much, in my opinion.

A quick lookup came up with : (and numiscorner is notoriously overpriced) https://www.vcoins.com/en/stores/nu...rius_125_bc_rome__silver/1849067/Default.aspx

*That being said, sometimes numiscorner has listings with fair prices.

Like most collectors of ancients, I buy them for my own pleasure. It's hard to turn a profit in the ancients field. I've been collecting for 30 years, all for my own amusement.

This is a great time to pick the brains of someone as experienced as yourself in slabs and U.S. coins. Have you had any experiences with the slabs poorly aging or AE coins developing bronze disease or other problems, while within the slabs?

 

As a follow-up, this denarius of Otho was once in an NGC Ch VF holder. The ancient dealer from whom I purchased it cracked it out, but he retained the slab label. I agree with the VF grade. What do you think?

 

One could certainly call the handsome Otho VF. If one wanted to go really old-school, like 1930's, it would be a Fine. By my 'old school', I mean grades as I learned them, during the 1980's. There's always the rabbit hole of which grade equals what, which have drastically changed over time.

Well said! That's pretty much my philosophy. That's also a very handsome denarius.

My weakness is patina. I especially love blue/aqua patinas on AE's (mostly from boggy regions), which are the rarest, unfortunately.

 

I think my piece has more detail than the coin you posted, for that is worth.

The only times I have had trouble with copper coins "going bad" in the holder has been when the piece was chemically treated before it was certified. I learned my lesson with 19th century red copper. I avoid it. I'll buy a Brown or even a R&B piece, but "Red" is off the menu for me.

Silver coins can tarnish a bit in the holders, but I often welcome that. I wish that I could buy every early U.S. coin that looked like this. BUT I paid a strong premium of this piece which is in an EF-45 holder.



More often they look like this one. I've owned this for over 30 years, and it has mellowed over time. This is graded AU-50.



The worst example I ever saw was a couple of Proof Indian Cents that a well known dealer had. They are literally turned to dust in the holder because of the harsh chemicals the coin doctors had used on them. I don't know if the TPG made good on them or not.

 

Most informative! It's a pleasure to pick the brains of someone with your level of experience. I had always wondered if the slabs would yellow, etc.

 

Here is an example of "grade-flation" for U.S. coins. I bought this piece from a collector who was saving money to go to Bermuda. I had long admired the piece, and he finally offered it to me. The question was the grade. At the time, the early 1990s, I called it EF-45. He graded it AU-50. We sent it to ANACS, which was using the little old "soap bar" holders at the time. It came back EF-45, so that set the price, which was higher than wholesale at the time.



In the early 2000s, I looked at what I was seeing on the market, and decided I needed to crack the coin out of the ANACS holder see what the modern standards were. It came back graded AU-55.

You can argue about ethics, but you really have to adjust to the current market. Prices and grades change.

 

I completely ignore the listed "grades" and notations about "rarity". I recently purchased both of these coins from the same auction. They are both listed as "good very fine", really?

 

Here's my c. 1990 (ancients) grade scale. Also, when I started out in the early 1990's, I was also reading my dad's 1960's and 1970's coin books.

EF. I didn't have any bulletproof, classic EF's photographed. I certainly have photographed coins with AU or EF wear. EF is all details present, pretty darn close to mint state. *Old-school EF would also put coins EF by wear, but striking issues, etc., in VF.


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On to the other grades,

VF


The aqua Gordian III could certainly pass for modern VF. It also fits the David Van Meter definition of 'two-thirds of the hair visible.' My personal grade was aVF. I purchased it for the wonderful patina.

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Fine, the better end of fine. It's a really handsome coin.


Fine, although a bold Fine. The Savoca listing rated it VF, and it's probably a modern VF.


regular Fine.

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VG

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Good

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Fair would be the reverse of the above As, or even a bit worse, barely anything present.

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Poor. A slick.

And these are just 'classic' examples, without getting into the rabbit-hole of chips, surface problems, bad strike, tooling, smoothing, etc.

My favorite of the lot is the aqua Gordian III.

Like most rank-and-file ancient collectors, I'm just in it for the enjoyment, not resale value. Stated grade is becoming less valuable to many ancient collectors (except for high-end auctions).

 

Yes, stated grade is more of a theoretical discussion, in my personal opinion, when it comes to ancients. A numisforum member recently said that modern photographs in auctions made it fairly irrelevant, that it was more for the days of unphotographed fixed price lists.

Yeah, the top one is pretty egregious, maybe good Very Good or aF. There would be certain listings of a French company, some decrepit Byzantine with BD, and it'd be VF35 (with a number, too!) or such.

 

This discussion has been most informative. Thank you, johnmilton and lordmarcovan, for posting your wonderful examples of U.S. coins.

I don't feel like trawling through every Aaron Berk podcast, but one fairly recent one had grading in the educational bit. I agreed with most of them, but like co-host Mike Nottelmann (whom I assume is the head of his U.S. dept.) said, one of those really hurt his heart. It was a pretty decrepit example for that particular grade.

The few times that I had the pleasure to go to Harlan J. Berk's Chicago store, I would always race to the ancients and also go through the pick bins. One magic day, there was a not-terrible Pescennius Niger in the window for $200 or 250, I forget which. I raced inside and purchased it. My most recent visit was in 1999.

My local coin shop which sells some ancients is too far away to conveniently go to,but the few times I visit, I race to the corner which has ancients, ignoring virtually all else.

It's also pleasant to chat with the owner,who, by his own admission, knows little about ancients. His bread and butter are the more modern coins.

 

It certainly is a much better-than-average justinian I tremissis, and a classic example of why it's hard to grade ancients. While I'd agree with CNG, it probably came out of the mint looking pretty close to that, so both could be correct.

This has mirror-like surfaces, far shinier than any other of the few gold coins which I have. It's probably EF or AU by wear, but it also has a crappy strike.



However, my personal satisfaction grade is FDC. It's really cool.

Or, uncleaneds. It's really confuse-a-cat territory there.

 

I am fortunate to have been a rabid collector of US coins since before the TPG’s and can absolutely say that yes, gradeflation is very real. We often say here on this forum, “buy the coin, not the holder”, yet we will indelibly set a value based on the holder. And it makes business sense for the TPG’s to do so. The piece I had slabbed AU58 back in 1995 will likely go MS60 or better by today’s relaxed standards, so they know that 1995 slab will likely come back for a new label….. I don’t much care for the money meat grinder that the TPG’s have turned our hobby into. As for me, I’ll continue to focus on the coin.

 

I concur. The top one is a countermarked coin; therefore collectors purchase them for the type and quality of the countermark and not the "condition" of the coin. The second (MESOPOTAMIA, Nisibis - Otacilia Severa ) is a common coin but one of the better quality for it's type, definitely not "good very fine". Same with your coin, even though it has a soft strike on the top it is one of the better specimens that are known.

 

So my question is this. How would you grade this mint error coin?


It is well centered on a full flan, fresh sharp dies with incredible detail, no porosity (good silver), natural toning (not harshly cleaned) with the only "flaw" being that it was double struck.