I Know it's Subjective But If You Had The Money....

......or disposable income to "invest" in one American coin that you think (in your opinion) would have a good chance of appreciating in value over time, what would that coin be?

 

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Honestly, after all the research I've done, I think the 'best' coins for 'investment' purposes are the ones where a P01 costs upwards of $10k. You know... a 1794 dollar. A 1894 S Barber. A draped bust small eagle half dollar (1796 or 1797). A 1796 Half Cent. I'm talking the extreme extreme rarities that bring a lot of attention when they come to auction.

If you are looking at this purely from an investment perspective, I think you should put your money in the stock market.

I always say you shouldn't buy a coin as investment. You should buy a coin you'll love and if it goes up in value, then great .

 

I collect coins, I don't invest in coins. If I want to invest that's what my IRA account, stocks, and properties are for.

Coins are not a good investment, and besides, when you mix up your hobby with worrying about investment, market forces, etc., it becomes stressful and sucks the fun out of the hobby. I find it best to keep one's hobby separate from all of that stuff.

 

My generic answer would be a nice coin tons of collectors would want. What I mean by that would be a VF Chain cent with no problems, AU 1815 half, etc. I wouldn't want to count on other "investors" in the future, nor overhyped 20th century "key" coins. I would want a coin that has huge COLLECTOR value. I think that would be the safest long term.

 

http://www.vamworld.com/

 

Why do you put invest in quotations?

I don't invest in coins, it's my hobby. It doesn't matter what my disposable income would be, I would still not view coins as an investment, basically money is not what stops me from investing in coins. The fact that coins are a bad investment is what stops me...

Lastly, your question makes little sense. If I were to invest in a coin I would need to factor the specific coin and the price that I was being offered that coin. I suppose any specific coin could return decent money if bought for the right price, and could lose a lot of money if bought for the wrong price...

What makes a coin a good investment, high rarity plus strong demand, plus a large collector base, plus key to a set, plus whatever other buzz words people like to throw around. How about the key to a complete sheldon set and the best example in the conditional census:

sold in 2009 at goldberg from the Holmes collection for $1,265,000 out the door:

http://images.goldbergauctions.com/php/lot_auc.php?site=1&sale=54&lot=128

Sold in heritage in from the Mervis collection in 2014 for $646,250.00 out the door:

http://coins.ha.com/itm/large-cents.../1200-2528.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

Does this mean a reeded edge 1795 large cent is a bad investment?

 

Okay, let me back-up. I should have known better. I used the wrong word, invest. You should never use the words invest and coin collecting in the same sentence. It's a hobby for me with enjoyment, it's pretty much it. If I get lucky with some coins, great! If my career was coin collecting, I would have starved to death long ago!

Maybe I should have used the words "retain it's value". But of course, that would depend on what I initially paid for the coin.

 

Yes, collector value. That's the term I was looking for.

 

That's what I was looking for. Thanks!

 

Question: Wouldn't a coin purchased at prices like those stand a good chance of being maxed out and never selling for that price again?

 

I thought that a 55/55 Lincoln might be a good bet but I was wrong.

CAC'd AU55 in a PCGS Holder lost $400 almost out of the gate.

 

I can't see that being true. Because they bring a lot of attention when they come to auction, you're going to be bidding against everyone who wants it enough to spend whatever it takes, thus ensuring that you won't "make your money when you buy".

If you're the highest bidder on a coin like this, you've just established that there's nobody else in the world who wants to pay as much as you just did for it. That's... not a good start for an "investment".

 

Lets all be honest. If you buy coins, you are investing in coins. You may not be doing it with profit in mind but it's still investing. The OP ask a simple question. What one coin would have a good chance of appreciating in value over time.
My answer would be a 1909 VDB matte proof Lincoln.

 

I disagree and I have quantitative evidence to support my claim. Do you?

For example, the draped bust small eagle half dollar purchased in like 1960 would have appreciated 9% a year annually between then and now. That would have turned out to be a pretty damn good investment. Note the 9% was a figure I saw on a website on the internet. But below I do my own math.

Just opening the book to a random page, one sold for 32,000 in 1973 and 345000 in 2011. That's a 6.5% annual return compounded every year. There are many more examples like this in the book. I just pulled a random one.

6.5% annual return over time year after year is very respectable. I would like to add that 6.5% annual return beats the S&P over this time time without reinvesting dividends. But lags including dividends.

That being said I don't buy coins as investments, I buy the ones I like. But of course over time they generally appreciate.

 

You don't have quantitative evidence to support your claim. You have bad data points with survivor ship and selection bias.

I think you missed my point. That list of attributes that is suppose to make a great investment coin is exactly what the S-79 large cent represents, and Adam lost $600,000 on that coin. There is no such thing as a general list of attributes that make a coin a good investment...

 

Being honest, I don't invest in coins, even by your definition. All my purchases are made with the assumption that I, or my relatives, will get no monetary value back out of them. If I woke up tomorrow and all my coins were worthless it would not bother me at all. The money I spend on coins is discretionary, and I consider it spent money. For myself, it's just too easy to rationalize overspending on coins when I consider them as an investment or store of wealth.

 

Yes, as do all coins because they are a last sucker asset. They are only worth what the next collector is willing to pay, they produce no income, no cash flow, and have no intrinsic value. That's the point, all coins run the risk of being maxed out and never selling for the price you buy it for. Add to that the large ask/bid spread that must be overcome to turn a profit and I just don't think approaching coins as an investment or store of value is a good idea. It's a hobby and nothing more, just like I wouldn't expect to get money back if my hobby was traveling, or eating at fancy restaurants, or boating...

 

http://www.pcgscoinfacts.com/Coin/Detail/62238

 

Well, I guess extrapolating from two points is better than extrapolating from one or zero points, but that's about the best thing I can say for it.

So I can make sure I'm following along, what is "the book" that you're opening to a random page to find 1973 and 2011 prices for a six-figure coin?

I have no reason to doubt your two data points, but I wonder, if you could randomly choose ten or a hundred "coins like that", what their price performance would be over time?