I had seven coins where CAC and I were in agreement; seven where we disagreed. Of those seven, all of them were coins that I thought should garner a bean, but didn't.
I didn't count but I think I got 5 correct. Not very good. My error was that I tended to think they would bean it when they didn't.
I got 8 correct. A few I gave the benefit of doubt but CAC did not, one I was just too optimistic on (the Gold Double Eagle), and a few I thought CAC was too harsh.
I've seen estimates of 40-50% but it depends on the series. Gold is in the single digits while common date Morgans, Mercs, Buffalos, and Franklins likely are well over 50%.
I'm curious now . . . How do better dates generally do? They seem to have snubbed most of the better dates I submitted.
I don't have any stats but my guess would be that they are tougher on better dates. Make a mistake on an 1881-S MS 63 Morgan and it's not the biggest issue but do the same on an 1895 PR 63 and it can become a costly mistake (especially if they had to buy it at CAC guide for the grade).
I have to wonder if that means it's not worth submitting better dates to them. Pretty much the same thing happened to me the first time I did this . . . I must be a slow learner.
My biggest bomb was the 65-S half, which I thought would gold bean.. it didn't sticker at all. I expect that some of the misses are simply because JA saw some issues with the coin in hand, a luxury we did not have. Otherwise, I don't have much of a clue.
If they are biased against stickering better dates (consciously or not), then don't feel bad. That '65-S H10c is tied for 7th best graded.
I only guessed on the first five. I got two out of five correct. One was a no bean, CAC agreed. One was a green bean, CAC agreed.
It's probably still worth it as the fee should be more than covered if even one better date stickers. My one experience with a somewhat better date was also no sticker on a coin I thought could go gold: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/guess-the-grade-1885-s-morgan.296429/
One of the biggest things that will keep it from the bean is the strike quality. It does depend on the issue somewhat. Some issues are more poorly struck than others. Another one that will keep it from getting it is if one side is f15 and the other is vf20. Regardless of the grade on the slab both the obverse and reverse should be solid for that grade.
I get about 60 pct match their opinion. Many I miss are coins I find unappealing / would not make offer or bid or just lowball the heck out of them (like estate where have take it all) lol.
