Has the coin market cooled off?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Hiddendragon, Nov 22, 2022.

  1. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    How have world coins done the last few years ? Matched U.S. coins on the PCGS and other measurements of pricing strength ?
     
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  3. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    I think some "cooling off" has been happening over the past year, yes. Korean Hwadong auctions in Seoul are seeing less enthusiastic hammer prices. Especially for things like the more popular commemorative coins:
    Screen Shot 2024-12-30 at 10.22.27 AM.png

    With the exchange rate at 1,500 Korean Won to the USD, the Korea-based buyers are not jumping in on auctions at eBay as they had last year.

    There are still opportunities for sales, since there is an active Asian-coin buyer base here in North America as @charley mentioned, but with the Korea-based buyers pulling back, final bids are indeed lower, from what I have seen.
     
    lordmarcovan likes this.
  4. mlov43

    mlov43 주화 수집가

    This is something many people do not appreciate enough...

    And, yes, we can "learn to grade our own darn coins," but that was the case back then, and many people buying and collecting coins even BACK THEN were not doing it, and instead relied on "baloney quality grading."
     
    -jeffB and GoldFinger1969 like this.
  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Surprised that many people are familiar with these exotic foreign coins. I wonder how many also dabble in U.S. rare coins.
     
  6. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    Some of the popular coins are still strong. Buying a Mexico Caballito is a challenge at what I consider reasonable prices (I regret selling my one example pre-2020 and thinking I would find something better). There are plenty of examples though that auction for less than we saw in 2020-2022 (there was some irrational exuberance combined with increased interest and funds to spend in those years).

    In terms of US, one of the bellwethers of the generic market, MS 65 common date Morgans, are down $40-$60 from the peak. However, items with strong eye appeal or those that infrequently show up continue to do well.
     
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  7. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The peak was 2021 or 2022 ?

    What was the price and what is it now ?


    The lower-priced coins and currency where was the newbies and keyboard buyers focused their $$$ in 2020-21 during stay-at-home. More expensive stuff they tended to stay away from like 4-figure Saints.
     
  8. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I can't speak for the world silver and lower denomination coins as I haven't really watched and or seen much them for the past few years. Prior to that, prices did nothing but go up since 2003.

    But the gold coins, I see them on just about a daily basis still. And those have nothing but go up for the past 21 years now. That's unprecedented in history. For quite a few years now my thinking has been that sooner or later it has to reach a tipping point.
     
  9. ldhair

    ldhair Clean Supporter

    Most everything I sold this year brought strong prices. Even the lower quality stuff brought fair prices.
     
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  10. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Yes, I remember a post of yours from a few years ago where you and I were in agreement that the U.S. coin bear market was over....but whether the long-in-the-tooth World Coin bull market still had time as nothing was "cheap."

    What are the popular foreign gold coins that you follow that are easy to track pricing ? A guy I know is big into French Roosters. They're about 1/5th of an ounce though, nothing like our DEs.
     
  11. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    I believe it was around 2022. From what I recall seeing, the generic MS 65 Morgan was as high as $185 in the greysheet (translating to about $180-$200 when sold at auction) and it has come down to $135 in the greysheet (with sales in the $130-$150 range).

    To compare to pre-2020, I believe in late 2019/early 2020 those Morgans were either $85 or $95 in the greysheet. And I saw multiple auctions end below $100. I even saw some unappealing MS 65s (mainly with dark toning that subtracts from the eye appeal) auction around $60 in that same late 2019/early 2020 period.
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Weren't these MS-65 generics $500 or more in 1989-90 ?

    I may have an article or some data sheets with the pricing 30+ years ago. Might have even been higher ! :wideyed:
     
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  13. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I'm not really tracking or following any specific coins per se. There was a time when I used to do that, but I don't do it anymore, and I haven't for several years. This is what happens and how I keep my eye on the trend of the market for world gold.

    Since even before coin forums existed, I have helped people from all over the world to learn about coins, all aspects of coins including the coin market. And there have been a great many of these people, far more than I could count. To put it simply I would help people with their collections. They would send me emails asking my opinion about this coin, that coin, this auction or that one. Over time, some would drift away, and others would begin. I seldom get requests for silver and lesser denominations any more, I do a few but not many, but I still get many for gold. No where near what I used to get but it's pretty much on a daily basis.

    In order to do what I do you have to research things a bit, sometimes a lot. But most of those that I still help have learned a lot over the years so they're able to do much, if not most of that work by themselves now. Now they mostly want to know about the quality of the coin or what if any issues or problems that I see. But it is in that way that I keep my eye on the trend of world gold coin market. And it's not at all unusual to see certain coins, the exact same coin, enter the market 2 or 3 times over the course of a few years. Especially in a bull market. Coins that I used to buy for a few or several hundred dollars are today going for thousands.
     
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  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    More than a few of them, if not most, were over a $1,000 back then.

    People that bought coins during the peak of '89 spike, today those coins are only worth 40% of what the people paid for them.
     
    GoldFinger1969 likes this.
  15. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    Gold multiplied 28 times in 9 years from $30 in 1971 to $870 in 1980.

    After stagnating during the strengthening of the 80's & 90's American economy, it's true that gold rose seven-fold from $270 in 2001 to $1900 in 2011.

    Gold corrected a lot between 2011 and 2015 before resuming its current 2.5 times rise from $1050 in 2016 to $2600 present day.

    Despite the brief 4 year respite, this has been quite a run-up.

    I think this sustained climb can be attributed to two separate trends . . .
    1. A fair number of central banks have accumulated much more gold than they previously held. While they haven't stopped altogether, they do appear to be slowing.
    2. In tandem with the actions of central banks, popular distrust of governments and fiat currencies seems to be on the rise, and physical currency held seems to be giving way to both gold and crypto-currencies.
    I have no doubt that this trend, and when it reverses is far more dependent on the level of fiscal responsibility governments demonstrate than it is upon the apparent multiple it reaches, or how long it rises for.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2025
  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Yup, at the time they fell about 80-90% peak-to-trough. So anybody buying at the bottom or so has done OK but still WAY down from the peak during the Mother Of All Bubbles in coins.:D

    Burton Blumert wrote a famous article talking about it, I have it somewhere (maybe even already posted it here years ago).

    Generic common MSDs were 100-200x the price of silver; Saints were 10x the price of gold for commons !! :wideyed: As Estelle Costanza would say...."IT'S INSANITY, I TELL YOU !!!" :D
     
  17. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    TC, gold would have risen even without CB buying...just the lack of sales like in the 1990's is enough for other sources of demand to take over.

    China, India, Asian countries, rising middle incomes across the globe -- it all leads to MORE global demand regardless if it is because people like holding gold, fear fiscal or monetary recklessness, etc.

    Indian gold demand doubles about every 15 years. It used to be 50-100 tons a year right after independence...then a few hundred tons a year a few decades ago.....now it's running at 700-800 tons a year. In 10 more years, it might be 1,500 tons a year or almost half the annual mined supply.

    If supply doesn't get boosted from mines (unlikely, IMO) and CBs won't sell...there are no other big sources of supply and the rising demand will HAVE TO be met by a rise in the gold price.

    I've been looking for $3,000 by 2030 and possibly $5,000 by 2035. I stand by those predictions, and the PTs could come sooner.
     
  18. 1953

    1953 Active Member

    I am about 2 hr. drive from Orlando where a number of large ANA shows are held. In the last year and less than the "Covid" purchased coins off that money have dropped. I am referring to common date coins even if in uncirculated grades. Rarity and very unique original toning still up. No drop in 1916d certified uncleaned dimes, etc.
    Some long-time sellers at the larger shows talked about all the "Details" coins (cleaned, corroded, rim damage, etc) have really been dumped on the market. Appears people with that Covid money without much at all knowledge about anything old or rare.
    I agree with what many of you all have stated..
     
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  19. johnmilton

    johnmilton Well-Known Member

    U.S. coins have gone down since 2008 for sure. I know because I bought some expensive pieces that dipped quite a bit. An 1808 quarter eagle immediately comes to mind.

    But the price dip has not been quite as deep as it seems. Grade-flation also involved. Twelve years ago a common date Type I gold dollar in MS-65 cost over $3,000. Today it’s a good deal less, but the modern MS-65 looks like the old MS-64. Of course to get that MS-64 into a 65 holder, you have to pay the TPGs to regrade it.
     
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  20. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    In my area coins are still strong. Gold and silver do nothing but rise in price from month to month. Coins of all kinds are almost impossible to find. Even Wheat Cents in common grades are are to get. The auctions I watch are as strong now as they were years ago. Not sure about foreign coins as I don’t collect them.
     
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  21. johnmilton

    johnmilton Well-Known Member

    It seems like the British and imperial Roman coins I punched have gone up. The acid test has been that dealers have been anxious to buy them back paying me small profits when I traded them.
     
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