Half Cent Rarity Values - Grey Sheet vs. Manley's Book

I'm trying to get my collection database fleshed out.
So I'm starting with the Half Cents.
My resources for half cents are:
-- The Half Cent Die State Book / 1793-1857 by Ronald P. Manley, Ph.D., 1998.
-- The CDN Monthly Greysheet, current.

One of the entries for my database is Rarity.
Using Manley's book the variety of one of the half cents is an R-6.
The Greysheet has it as an R-7.

Which of these R-numbers should I consider correct?
Manley's 20+ years old value or the current day Greysheet value?

Eventually Ed Fuhrman will publish his book covering the date range of interest, but until then what resource should I consider correct?

This is a minor issue particularly since it's highly unlikely I will ever consider buying this particular coin but it's one of those little things that will nag me until I decide which way to go.

Opinions, please.

 

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Rarity values change as more pieces are discovered, or collectors find that it was actually rarer than they thought.

Given that Manley's book is over 20 years old and Greysheet is current... I'd go with the greysheet rarities.

I don't collect half cents, but I know that in the Bust Half world there is a guy who takes a census annually, and updates rarity ratings accordingly (much more frequently than a new edition of a book). I'd assume there was a similar process for the half cents you mention.

 

Greysheet

 

I have the Cohen, Breen, Eckberg, and Fuhrman books. I'll look up the coin in each of those references if you tell me what it is.

Also, rarity ratings change both up and down over time, probably getting less rare over time more often than more rare.


Probably

 

Thanks, all.
Greysheet is my thinking also.
Just checking to see if there's something I may have overlooked.
Sort of a sanity check.
At my age overlooking things is my normal way of life.

The date/variety in question is a 1794 Cohen-1b.
Manley says R-6.
Greysheet says R-7.

And, "no", I don't have that coin.

 

Couldn't some of the population numbers be artificial as slabbed coins are cracked out and resubmitted? One coin may have multiple TPGS population entries for the same or a different grade.

 

Yes, but the TPGs only attribute if you pay an extra fee (which many don't). So, you can't rely on the pop reports.

For the Bust Half club, Steve Hermann polls individuals in the John Reich Collector Society and the Bust Half Nut Club (and tracks auctions) to get a fairly accurate estimate of how many coins actually exist (not how many times they've been submitted to the TPG).

 

Here's what my references say for the 1794 C-1b:

Cohen(2nd edition, 1982) - 12 specimens known to him but because he thought more would be found he called it: R-6

Breen (1983) - High R-6, almost R-7

Demling - R-6

CDN Graysheet - R-7

 

My solution is to gleen this information from Heritage Archives using posts by Mark Borckardt who uses updated EAC estimates. His posts are expansive and he usually give a coin an EAC grade opinion.

His History and Provenance information is delightful to see.

With very few exceptions, the lower estimate is usually the most current. But the condition census changes more slowly since most, but not all, new finds tend to be low grade specimens which do not make the CC.

 

For information, the last C.Q.R published in 2011 had C-01b at R-6.

 

Thanks again for the effort all of you put into answering my question.

For now my policy will be "go with the Greysheet".
That may change when Fuhrman comes out with his new book that covers the Liberty Cap group.

My library doesn't grow BUT it does get updated as newer references get published.