As I am sure you have all noticed that silver and gold seem to be the hot topic and everyone talks about buying or selling metals, I think you might be missing the boat buy not buying key date coins. At a lot of the major shows lately I have seen keys trading below sheet and my friends and I have been making some great buys. A friend of mine just bought a PCGS 1896-S barber in G6 for $650. a good $125 under gray sheet. Also bought a 1909-S VDB pcgs graded for $200 under sheet. These buys were from dealers who said that no one seems to want collector coins anymore. The point is while everyone is going metal nuts be smart and buy the key date coins that are being over looked at the moment. Also look for better date gold coins as some of these are now trading just over melt. As any broker will tell you nothing last forever including the price of gold and silver.
If your thinking about buying silver, I bought a 1865 half for $15 Sunday. that coin was most likely at that price when silver was going for $5 oz.
I agree with much of your OP, BEC. There are a few things to consider, however... First... most so-called "key dates" are not rare coins. They're expensive common coins. How can that be ? How can a common coin be expensive ? When (and only when) demand is high. As soon as demand cools, even a little bit, certain key dates are the first to sag. For example, consider the 1909-S VDB cent. It's a common coin (rarity r.1); mintage was almost half a million. Every show, even a small one, has 'em everywhere. The current Heritage auction has 13 of 'em in grades up to MS65 Red. They usually have more. These coins are expensive ONLY because there are so many Lincoln Cent collectors. Second... there is plenty of demand for collector coins, but less than three years ago. That means... drum roll, please... it's all about quality. It's NOT about grade. It's about quality. That's true for "key" dates and type coins alike. And here's the rub... these days, it's hard to find truly quality coins, particularly early American copper (half cents and large cents). Since prices sagged a bit during the Big Beatdown of 2008-2009, many people who had great coins just stashed 'em. Many are still in hiding. Don't forget... price is all about supply and demand. That's why price changes frequently. The demand changes, but oddly enough so does supply. Supply has little to do with how many were minted. It has little to do with how many survived. It has much to do with how many are on the market right now. Finding beautiful, eye-appealing coins is work - trust me. Make no mistake - truly quality coins are expensive right now. Probably always will be. "Nice coins aren't cheap, and cheap coins aren't nice".
I agree with you. But I have had some people tell me they sold there better coins to buy only silver or gold bullion. And as time gets harder some of those outstanding coins will come out of hiding and be for sale again and thats when you should jump on them and buy them. And the statement about finding beautiful, eye appealing coins being hard work you are right on. But finding one of those coins at a show after driving two days to get to a show make all the work and time worth it. Remember the fun is in the hunt. Jim
I wholeheartedly agree with this in regards to early copper. Not only is it far more rare then later stuff, almost all the nice coins have been put away in collections. Trying to find even choice late date large cents, even for common varieties, is very difficult.
All excellent points! ...if you're putting together Registry sets. Many of the truly high end registry coins are out of the reach of many of us, anyway. I think the OP's point is that with everyone chasing bullion, there are some very nice coins (perhaps not the BEST coins...but nice coins within a grade) that can be found at very reasonable prices. I've certainly found that to be the case. For instance, one of the things I like to collect are proof Liberty nickels. I collect PCGS graded PF64 coins which I feel could cross over to PF65...and I've been getting them at PF63 prices. They may not appeal to everyone, but they appeal to me.
Doesn't anyone worry that when (not if) the recession hits, that your key date coins are only going to be worth their weight in metal? In a recession and hyperinflation, no one will be buying these things. So they are only worth what someone will pay or trade. Am I totally nuts? ps: I am not a finance guru, or banker, or stock analyzer. I am just an average citizen that sees what is happening.
Is that what happened in the Big Beatdown of 2008-2009 ? For overgraded crapita, yes - they took a big hit. For truly nice coins NO. They held their value quite nicely. Don't take my word for it. Hit the Heritage website and do some research. Look at auctions which closed in late 2008 and 2009. You'll find that nice coins did fairly well; true rarities excelled (as a general rule). The notion that "your key date coins are only going to be worth their weight in metal" is, as you say, "totally nuts". Please don't think I'm ridiculing your perspective. I respect you and your ideas. I'm only saying nice coins are IN. I believe they will stay in. Respectfully submitted, Ricky B
I respect your reply. Thanks R.B. But the next recession, as in, when the dollar is replaced as the world reserve currency, will not be comparible to the 2008-2009 "recession". Trust me, I hope I am wrong. I sold half of my silver last year to purchase nicer coins. Albeit, not for investment, just for the pleasure. Just wanted to hear peoples thoughts. -g
I certainly agree with many folks - that some things could be better and some things have been mismanaged. I don't feel we're headed for a recession - and even if we are, we'll handle it just like we did the last one. Many people have a very optimistic view of the future. That doesn't mean we're wrong. Sadly, we optimists are often attacked as "drinking the kool-aid" because we don't have a negative view... as if somehow being pessimistic makes one "better informed". People in wealthy nations like the US, Canada, UK, most of Europe, etc simply don't understand what most of the world lives like. I just got back from volunteer work at orphanages and shanty towns in El Salvador. People in wealthy countries don't know jack squat about poverty. We should be more grateful.
I think what the op says makes some sense. The money pool for keys has been diverted somewhat to bullion. Fine with me. Just hope it's like this when I finally close my set with that 09 S VDB.
"For everything there is a season, and a time for all things under Heaven..." There is a time for collector coins, and a time for bullion. Bullion has gone nuts. Gold is still going nuts, and a lot of folks have made a heckuva lot of money which they would not have made had they stayed in collector coins. When comparing bullion vs. collector coins, the mechanism for moneymaking is very, very different . Bullion requires almost no expertise, collector coins require much expertise. It's still true that bullion sells very quickly, collector coins slower.
I would point out that maybe this is happening to US coins, but ancients are far from cooling off. I would say in the last 3 years decent ancient material has at least doubled. High grade/high demand coins are even higher, with some coins that used to be $5,000 now selling for $20,000. Some of this can be attributed to exchange rates, but I wonder if the financial downgrade has changed world opinions about US coins, or is it just the US economy having that much of a drag on US coins?
This is kind of off the subject, but I have a friend who keeps an eye out for any silver that goes through the cash register at his job. He has found me over 20 silver dimes in the last week or so. I've been giving him $2 a dime and he's thrilled. Anyways, last night he called me, and told me he was broke and so hard-up for a can of Skoal (not kidding) that he would sell me 10 silver dimes for $5. Of course I jumped on it, but now I'm feeling a little guilty. I'll probably slip him another fiver the next time I see him ... ;o9
