Future Coin Prices

I do not have past price guides for price comparison, but have been reading "The Experts Guide" by Bowers and there is a lot of reference to price swings with the coin market.

Where do you see prices going in 20 years without using your crystal ball.
Personally I think all the graded MS70 modern coins will bottom such as the State quarter program.

I pretty much collect 1835-1930 silver in MS62. Overall how do these prices compared to historical prices: 5 years, 10 years, 15 years ago.

I have heard about Commeratives prices collapsing in the past and Wallstreet's influence in the late 1980's. Also, I dont collect stamps or know anything about them, but have heard that prices have fallen to very low prices? What is the potential here with coins as ATM Debit cards are used more and more?

Let me hear your stories, views, and ideas.

 

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That last part kind of ties our hands, doesn't it?

Anyway, mine is broken. :whistle:

 

I'm no expert on coin prices... but I've been in the stamp market for a long time. One of the basic price/demand themes in stamps is that stamps are always worth more the closer to home you get. That means... rare Italian stamps are always worth more in Italy than elsewhere. Stamps are geographically associated and the interest is always greater closer to home. A second theme is... the market for collectibles is always greater if there is a lot of disposable wealth. The market generally does well during good economic times, and poorly during bad. So for instance... now that Norway has a booming economy due to oil exports, early and rare Norwegian stamps are disappearing from the US and going over there, where the market is MUCH higher. The third major influence is demand... as in... how many collectors are there? When I was a kid... everybody I knew collected stamps. A few people were getting into baseball cards... but that was kid stuff... we all knew stamps were the really serious collectible. Nowadays if I go to a meeting of the local stamp club... I'm the young guy! The other folks dragging oxygen tanks get me to carry to cooler of soda. There does not seem to be a younger cadre of collectors to form the basis for future demand. That does not bode well for the hobby, though a few of us might be able to acquire items in the future we could never have hoped to own if the market falls.

So where the market for rare stamps will go depends on where you think the economy will go. If China booms, then a lot of people there may get interested in collecting, and the market for Chinese stamps will soar. If the dollar tanks, the market for US stamps is likely to turn sour. If young people somehow get interested in stamps, that will be a good sign.

Coins have a bit of the same forces going on, but with the additional twist that they have intrinsic value due to their metal content. I recall that bizarre scene in 1981 when silver shot to $40. At the time we were about to have a baby, uninsured, and trying to figure out how we were going to pay for the hospital bills. Some guys came through town buying silver. I went over with my nearly-filled album of Washington quarters to sell some. I was trying to argue that my rare dates and my high grades should be worth more. The guy was quite blunt and pointed out that he was paying $10 each for quarters and he wasn't going to bother looking at the dates, they would all be melted... you wanna sell it or not? Well... I sold almost all of the quarters I had holding back only a few key dates... $1,800 worth... just enough to pay for the doctor and hospital bills. As it turned out, a year later I was able to replace all of that for about $180, so the whole thing worked out rather well. But the point of all that is that if the dollar fails and gold/silver becomes more precious as currency, the collector value of rare dates and high grades will fall, leaving metal value as the basis. As long as the US economy and the stock market remain strong, collector coin values should remain strong.

 

in late 79 to early 1980 prices were really poised to "break out" in the precious metals market as well as in "investment potential" rare coins..experts were definitely saying buy silver gold and ms 65 coins like morgan dollars..buy buy buy the prices are going to skyrocket. silver was around $45 and morgans were hitting (if memory serves)... close to $500... wall street investment houses were all over it so it must be good. they are experts in finance!!! hmmmm...how did they do? coins are like anything else...a given coin is worth x amount of dollars to individual x at any given time. i could buy an 1875-S trade dollar in xf condition for 150-200 when i was collectiing in 1980-89 era and, well, they are pretty much same price since then. other coins have fared better..others haven't. unfortunately i really don't know the future. i want to believe i am buying incredible bargains with every single purchase i make at any given time and when i sell, it will be at the most extravagant prices ever paid for that date and denomination. those purchases will be legendary in the coiin community!! or at least in my mind!!! unfortunately, it probably won't be that way, so i will settle for having paid a fair price for nice coins which i have enjoyed for years. settling for "the enjoyment of my purchases was legendary!"...wish there was some way to determine cycles and whats undervalued at any given time plus what will be the demand in the future. i can't even guess the future price of the djia for a year despite having all the financials and technical info to go thru. sorry for the long post .just my own observation and opinion for what little its worth..steve

 

I think that expecting inflation to continue and accelerate in the future is about the closest thing to a sure thing that you can bet on. The rate of new money creation is very high compared to the past, debt is rising at an accelerated pace, trade deficits are high, the budget deficit [when calculated correctly] is rising. Energy prices are almost sure to go up.

How will that affect coins? The price of gold and silver should rise for a variety of reasons ranging from supply and demand dynamics to the increasing price of mining, which uses a lot of energy. So common date silver and gold coins selling reasonably close to melt value are almost certain to go up. The higher priced rare coins may go up or down since they have different forces working on them and are partly dependent on the general prosperity and level of interest in the hobby.

Some people think the future will look a lot like the period from 1980 to 2006 with a lot of ups and downs but no real trend. I think this ignores some of the changes that have occurred in the past few years that have set things up for another jump to permanently higher price levels. Silver and gold coins are about the only thing you can purchase now for prices about the same as back in the 1970s. I think that's going to change over the next decade.

All opinion, of course.

 

Your right. I didn't see what I expected. I expected the ups and downs, but figured there would be general growth in the overall curve. Looks like the only growth has been in the past 10 years...most from 2003 which may be related to metal prices....

I am glad this is only a hobby and not something I am counting on for retirement.

 

Without the old crystal ball this job's much harder.

Most collectors will be well advised to simply ignore trying to make money and
instead concentrate on having fun. You're much more likely to profit since you'll
be learning about coins and the markets than about more superfluous things like
price histories and populations. You're sure to profit in enjoyment no matter how
well or how poorly your collections do.

As has always been the case the coins which will do best are those which others
degrade or ignore. The specific coins that do best will depend on the decisions of
collectors in the future and this isn't really predictable without my crystal ball, but
I have to believe if any states quarters ever get graded MS-70 they will do very
well indeed.

Inflation won't go away and gold and silver should increase for years yet. Coins
will stay n the spotlight and there will be large numbers of new and maturing col-
lectors. In twenty years many of the children collecting states coins now will be
returning to the hobby and buying coins they can't afford now. The vast majority
of all collectors will be those who started collecting in 1999 or later.

Some things don't require my crystal ball.

 

Future price predictions:
In the future prices will generally be up, unless they go down, in which case they will not increase, to the extent that they decrease.
However, there is a definite trend that stipulates that future prices will definitely go one way, or the other, unless they don't and stay steady.
In either case, tho, they will definitely not be different, unless they are.

 

:hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer: :hammer:

BRUCE "THE FRANK GROUP"

 

Thanks. I was afraid that prices would generally be sideways.

 

regardless of my inablity to predict the future. the experts guide is an excellent book. i love david bowers writing!!

 

I'm glad that I could clear that up for you!

 

Frank,
Congratulations on graduating from the Yogi Berra school of english.

BRUCE "THE FRANK GROUP"

 

I used to collect as a young boy and just now returned to the hobby and already, in one month, have more expensive coins and quite a collection....stuff that I couldn't afford when I was a teenager. Therefore, I am in total agreement with your vision.

 

Bruce:
Thanks, and as I always used to say about coin prices " Its deja vous all over again."
And, 'it ain't over 'til it's over."

 

according to the big guy on the coin vault tv show they are going to go up like every week from now on reguardless if they are suppose to or not

 

Thats right Robert Chambers is never wrong he is always right when it comes to the price of coins.

 

My prediction is that 20 years from now Topical collecting will be a mania in this country. Competition between collectors will not be who can put together the highest grade collection, or coins of lowest mintage or lowest "pop" but who can put together the most unique or even bizarre theme. The value of a single coin will center less on mintage and scarcity and more on how it relates to the theme. The greatest asset for a collector will be "artistic instinct" rather than deep pockets--which by that time will only be deep in defunct wall-paper anyway.

Collectors will do this, IMO, because they can. Because the Internet makes supply/choices unlimited especially with dark side coins and exonumia, both of which are practically bottom-less pits of supply.

The future has to be radically different from the past because radical technology (Internet access) alters the cost and rewards of certain actions. Using the Internet, reduces the cost--(in time) of hunting down world coins and exonumia. So now rewards of building Topical collections increases--Everyone with Internet access has an equal chance to be a feudal lord. It's a good ratio, lower costs higher rewards :bow:

Also the costs--(in money) will decrease because there may well be a million feudal lords dispersing their efforts through a million different Topicals. A particular coin or token may interest someone with a particular theme in mind but have little interest to everyone else at the moment. It's not going to be easy for a seller to get an extra $10,000 for a coin because it has: "Fully Struck Eye-Balls"--WOW!

 

I think there's a huge amount of truth here but I don't think the hobby will be
completely stood on its head. There will be radical changes because of the
radical changes in how people can collect and because it will be an entirely dif-
ferent group of people with radically different ideas. While things like themes,
tokens, medals, world coins, moderns, ultra-moderns and ancients will gain a
great deal, there isn't going to be a huge drop off in the sorts of things peo-
ple collect now. At least the rarities and more desirable coins will always find
a ready collector. Quality will always find collectors as will rarity and historical-
ly important coins.

The exact things collectors will be interested in will come to light as the years
go by but I'm sure Longnine009 is correct that theme collecting will become more
popular. Also watch for varieties and types to gain in popularity. Something like
a 20th century world type collection can keep someone busy for years and it's
not going to get easier in the future.

One of my favorite picks are tokens and medals that fit multiple specialties; a
token like a 1933 world's fair telephone token is primarily of interest to tele-
phone token collectors now, but in the future most specialists are likely to collect
more inclusively. This means not only varieties but also world's fair collectors
will become interested in this token. Those who collect Illinois memorabilia will
become interested. Right now there might be a few dozen of these in exist-
ence and this simply dwarfs the demand but what happens when there are sud-
denly a few hundred more collectors who are interested AND know that it ex-
ists? There will be a sort of rush throughout the hobby that affects one segment
after another and radically changes pricing structures. Things we take for grant-
ed like the availability of all the regular issue moderns will be seen to be wrong
because it is demand that determines price moreso than supply. Items with just
a few surviving can be cheap or dear just as can items with substantial numbers
surviving. If the demand for a $2 token can get up to a few hundred serious col-
lectors than the price can suddenly go up hundreds fold without losing much
demand.

There will be many realignments and not all will be upward.