Where is the market going as far as pricing and collectors, we no longer collectors rolls of coins? I have no interest in the investor market. How powerful is ‘open borders via the internet’ ? EYE APPEAL Markets and collectors evolve, the tide cannot be stopped ebbing and flowing. From the 1950’s there have been great sales come to the market. These sales whether Classical Ancient or British had in the early days the public institutions acquiring pieces they did not have. A change in direction occurred from coins of just historical significant to coins with eye appeal. New numismatist took the opportunity to buy for the public in the future many wonderful pieces. Where is the market moving, the debate continues, I have my own opinion in that it will continue to polarize as Coins are recognized as miniature works of art? Jeff
Apparently, your thread posted twice, so I notified the mods via "Report" so they can combine them. Chris
As to the original post, 'beats the devil' out of me. Then again, I only collect what I like so the dad blamed market don't amount to a flea on a hound dogs tail........
buying what you love no matter where the market is what will make you happy. sounds like you are following trends and are into the investment part of the coin hobby. for myself eye appeal plays a big part of the coins I buy/collect. grade rarity plays a part on some of coins I collect.
Regarding pricing, the market for world coins as a whole has seen unprecedented growth since 2003. Prices have gone in one direction - up. This is not normal, not even close to normal ! Historically, bull markets typically last 3-5 years, while bear markets last 5-8 years, before reversing and going the other direction - and then doing it all over again. So what can one say when there has been a bull market in world coins for 13 years ? There's not much to say except that something has obviously changed, but what ? From what I have seen the collectors have changed. For one thing there has been a huge increase in the number of collectors of world coins in that time frame. That of course translates into fewer coins to go around and that usually translates into higher prices due to competition. Some might say that the internet is largely responsible for this. And I don't think there can be any denying that for the internet increases exposure to more collectors drawing in those who previously had no interest in this segment of the coin market. It increases ease of access to the coins, increases advertising by dealers and auction houses, and perhaps most of all increases the interest in selling for those who own these coins that have been held in private collections for decades if not centuries. It kind of boils down to this, we have experienced what might be referred to as "the perfect storm", or perhaps more correctly called "the perfect market". Huge increases in the number of collectors coupled with sustained huge increases in the number of "fresh" coins into the market, and unbelievably low prices in the beginning - that all translates into what we have seen - a bull market in world coins that has lasted 13 years. But here is the danger that lurks - no bull market last forever. Sooner or later they all end and go the other direction, this is the very nature of all markets and it is inevitable. To see this all we have to do is look at history, the most recent example of which is what happened to the US coin market during that same time period. In 2001 the US market began showing signs of life. A flat or bear market that had lasted for 11 years began to reverse itself. By 2003 it took off and we had a bull market that lasted 7 years. Why ? For the same reasons mentioned above, an increase in the number of collectors and the internet. Then in 2008 the US coin market fell off a cliff and started a downward trend that is still going downward 7, going on 8 years later. So why did the world coin market stay bullish while the US market did not ? Because the world coin market still had that one component that the US market did not have - fresh coins. Fresh coins always stimulate the market, they keep it going, they keep it alive. Fresh coins were the missing component that helped create the perfect market. But sooner or later that supply of fresh coins has to end. I believe it has already ended for the same coins are being sold again and again. I also believe the current market for world coins is being sustained what is often referred to in other markets the greater fool theory. And I believe that sooner, rather than later, that is coming to an end.
Its a very important point Doug makes about fresh coins onto the market. Did you ever wonder why Morgans, (a not particularly attractive coin), are so popular? Its because of quantity of supply really. Sure, being silver and the dates in the 1800's help, but it was the enormous supply that created the demand. What is the demand for 1880's SL halves? Pretty similar coin, large silver, dated similarly. The demand for these, though, is maybe 1/10,000 of that for a morgan. Why? Because there are so dang few of them most collectors who MAY have been interested in them give up and move to something much easier to buy. The 1893 S Morgan is not any rare than most SL halves dated in the 1880's, but is worth a ton more because its a Morgan. Same with ancients. They really started to take off once all of the fresh coins from Eastern Europe hit the market. It seems weird, but truly rare stuff never becomes popular since there is not enough of it to generate collectors of it. Only the more common stuff will encourage mass collecting.
