lets take stuff from the same era like: 09-s, 09-svdb , 14-d cents 13-s T2 5cent 16-d dime 16 SLQ etc. I know it varies, 09-s being first year gets saved more, buffalo might get date worn off, etc. What's left 10%, 25% ? of the original mintage.
I will say that the 09-S VDB is fairly available for a high dollar, key date coin. They are not difficult to locate if you are willing to spend the money on them.
There's no question that most indicators say you're right but I've always believed that there are a lot of coins out there that just don't get reported or slabbed. The 16-D dime has long been a case study for me because fewer than 15% can be ac- counted for in slabs. This is a coin that should normally be graded when sold since there are so many fakes out there yet pops are extremely low. The coin had sub- stantial value during its useful life so people would put a lot of effort into retrieving them when lost. The bulk were removed from circulation before 1940 before they had a chance for the date to be worn off. Losses beyond normal attrition should be low. The '09-S VDB was perhaps estimated a little high to make a point. There can be a dramatic difference in how coins are saved and protected. The 1883 w/o c 5c for instance is easily found in high grade because so many were hoarded by the public.
Cladking: I agree and there is always hoarding of the first and last date of any series (or variety as people did with the 1883 w/o cents that you mentioned). but, a 50% survival rate? And I agree, there are a lot of pieces that are not slabbed out there, remember the NYC subway hoard, they had about 600 1916 D mercs. (I forget the exact number, but it was a heck of a lot.)
As I said I was estimating high. I'd figure about 75% were immediately pulled out and set aside. The rest disappeared gradually from circulation until fewer than .5% remained in 1940. Those in circulation probably had about a 3% attrition and those set aside about 2% until it dropped to around .75% by the end of the war and the price was significant. I'm not gonna do the math but that would be lower than 50%.
now to change it up a bit: How many 1955 DD are left ? I'm thinking like 80-90 %.... where would they go ? Don't go by grading service #'s.... has there ever been a fake ? You can keep this one raw, unlike a 16-d dime, that I think needs a slab. Now an 1895-o dime might just be a lot rarer than 16-d, but cheaper, as few collect Barber dimes by date. maybe under 10% left ?... 5% ? I don't know mintage off the top off my head, too lazy to look it up, but those Barbers circulated until they were wafer thin.
