I have been sending my own coin to get graded for 3 years and have been making a few bucks on the side since I am able to tell the difference between a 69 and a 70. So over the last 1.5 year I have noticed that the 70 market has been declining at slow rate. If you look at the PCGS price guide for proofs you will see a bunch of red numbers with the down arrow. Coins don't even sell close to the price guide price. ex 1999-S Silver Kennedy PCGS PR70DCAM PCGS Price $1800 they sell for about $250 on ebay. There are 2008 and 2009 coins selling on ebay for less than the cost of the grading fee. Last month I decided to dump all of my 70's that I had in my collection (don't worry I will never part with my Roosevelt's). Your thoughts!!
I would imagine that lower prices are a natural byproduct of higher supply, especially if that higher supply outpaces any growth in demand.
I think a lot of people who are buying modern 70's will be in for a rude awakening down the road. This isn't just a recent trend, though. It's been slowly, slowly sneaking up on everyone for a few years. Going back as far as 2005 or 2006, I began seeing some of the 70's in the SQ series that weren't living up to the hype. I'm sorry, but Ive never placed much stock in the PCGS price guide. They're just blowing their own horn as far as I'm concerned. Chris
Yes, I think this market will decrease significantly in the future. Some series/coins have already begun to fall. The first to really drop off may be the clad proofs. I am sure some of the silver/gold and especially low mintage issues will continue to do well. For example, I wish that I had some 2008 MS70/PF70 AGBs, APEs or AGEs! I have not bought into the MS70/PF70 hype EXCEPT for the 2010 NGC AtB PF70 silver quarter set I purchased on an impulse buy a few weeks ago (as was discussed on another thread). Although these will likely be the last slabbed modern coins I will purchase, I have to admit that I do like this series in silver. TC
I haven't really ever placed any stock it it either. There are some places where the price guide is spot on but most of it is hogwash.
Here's my take on the subject: 1. I think there will always be buyers for MS-70 or PF-70 material. There are affluent Americans who just have to have the best cars, homes, electronics, you name it. Those people will want the best coins too. 1a. There are collectors who don't want the best cars, homes, etc. but they do want the best coins. 2. Price: The prices may go down and some coins will stay stable. But the best 70 grade material will remain in demand. There may be a correction going on and the economy doesn't help.
TC, The thing of it is, like Schatzy said, if you want to get 70's, you should be submitting them yourself for grading. It is also why I've been trying to convince others that if they can't tell the difference between a 69 and a 70, then they should buy the 69's. Here's an example of the current trend for you. I have a 2005-S Oregon Silver States Quarter, NGC PF70 ULTRA CAMEO. It was in the same submission with my 2005-S Kansas Silver States Quarter, NGC PF70 ULTRA CAMEO MINT ERROR. One of the largest advertisers in Coin World is advertising the Silver Oregon 25c in PCGS PF70DCAM (Pop 229) at $425, but is also advertising 20% off of all PCGS PF70/MS70 "Registry" coins. In effect, he's asking $340 for this coin. Hey folks! If anyone is interested, I'll sell you my NGC Oregon PF70UCAM for $300! Don't worry. I'm not going to hold my breath. Chris
I've stated it many times before.....trying to make rarities out of otherwise common coins. I never bought into the hype, and neither should anyone else.....
agree 101%...selling something that was made yesterday for $300 should be illegal. i don't care if it was graded PF or MS99
I agree with the above mentioned quote. We've pretty much been in a bad economy for a decade. It's hard to tell what things will be worth if we ever manage to just get back to normal. I believe the level of prices will play a role. I have several 70s myself. Mainly in commemoratives but a few others as well. I pick and choose what ones I'm comfortable with, while others, I refuse to pay the premium. If you look around, some 70s aren't that bad. I got one popular low mintage, $5 gold commem NGC MS70, at a show just last year for less than what it's spot price is worth now. I picked up a 2008 ASE PF70 for $80 off ebay maybe a year and a half ago. There's deals and situations out there where you may as well get the top graded one. On the other hand, a PF70 state quarter for 3 to $400 or a 2009 set of new Lincoln cent PF70s for $300 doesn't seem as appealing to me. Or worth it. They're simply too hyped at the moment. There's too many. I'll settle for my non-graded sets. There's plenty of stuff with huge premiums that have a lot of room to swing downward. While other coins have relatively small premiums for the highest grade. You have to think about what you're buying and weigh the risk. It's no different than monster toned coins. An equillibrium has to be met with supply vs. people capable of paying the asking prices. When prices get up into the thousands, relatively few people are willing or can be, buyers in that market, compared to buyers in the 50 to say 500 range. If 1/4 of those people lose interest in a few years, there's a long way to fall. Much more risk, the higher dollar you go, IMO. It becomes wild speculation over what something should be worth. Just like the mortgage crisis. Nobody can or will take the time to tally up what all the 2x4s, shingles, carpet, windows, doors, labor ect. cost to build a house. In order to at least get a base line. What you'd think should be critical to know, plays almost no roll at all. It's just factored in to the guess based on comparable homes. Then you tack on the premium for location,neighborhood, etc., which is a wild unknown fueled by everybody's speculation. It's dollar value based on feelings at the time. Nothing more. No protection. This is why (formerly) hundreds of thousands worth of homes are being bulldozed in Detroit. Some to recoupe the land for aggriculture. Nobody wants to be there anymore and somebody got left holding the bag. It's plain and simple. The higher you go, the more there is to possibly loose, and the harder it is to gain.
