Determining surviving populations

I’m afraid I may be wishing for the impossible, but in my determination to know the TRUE rarity of a coin, I wish there was a method to determine, just an approximation mind you, the SURVIVING number of any given coin for any given date.

I know it can’t be done – and yet still I try…

I can say with absolute certainty that I have one of 350,000 Morgan 1889-CC silver dollars (the mintage), but realistically, the coin is rarer than that. Not all of those are still surviving. The treasury itself takes coins out of circulation and recycles them, then there were the melts, the Pittman act, and the silver rush during the 1980’s when melt values were attractive.

The Pittman act wasn’t discriminatory toward coins, and coin collecting wasn’t near the hobby then that it is today. And even in the 1980’s, how many citizens, unaware of the numismatic value of particular coins, unwittingly sacrificed rare coins to the kiln?

The mint, to the best of my knowledge, doesn’t keep records of individual coin dates, mintmarks, etc, removed from circulation, so we’re stuck with conjecture. 569 million Morgan dollars were struck prior to the Pittman act in 1918, and the Pittman act removed 350 million silver dollars, that’s 61%. But the Pittman act didn’t distinguish between Morgans, Trades, Seated, etc. So is 50% a reasonable number of survivors?

That would leave 175 thousand examples of the 1889-CC.

Articles tell us that the average lifespan of a coin is around 30 years before it is removed from circulation by the mint. The problem with that statistic, is that Morgan dollars in general didn’t circulate as heavily as say, the quarters of the time. AND we know that despite the removal from circulation by the mint, examples still exist. Conservatively, can we assume the mint removed say, 30% of the coins?

The timing of these removals is also important, because if they removed them prior to the Pittman act, then the removal may already be accounted for above. What if we assumed an additional 10% for mint recall, that is, over and above what was removed from the Pittman Act?

That would leave us with approximately 157 thousand 1889-CCs remaining.

The 1980’s silver rush was a singular event, but coins may have been destroyed in the years preceding and following that one event. Assuming 5% loss for bullion, that would leave us with 149 thousand. And of those, some may have lost date or mintmark legibility, let’s say 1%, after all, it’s a 130-year-old coin we’re talking about here.

That leaves us at around 148 thousand, give or take. That’s 42% of the original mintage. It seems high from a reasonableness standpoint, but the coin can certainly be found. PCGS has encapsulated 8,724 examples, NGC has encapsulated 5,251 examples, that’s 13,975 coins or 9% of the population as speculated here.

It’s a coin of value.

For comparison to determine if our number is reasonable, let’s look at a recent issue, with probably no melt, and in the hands of collectors – the 1994 proof American silver eagle. Original mintage – 372 thousand. PCGS has graded 174, NGC has graded 18,690 for a total of 18,864 or 5% of the known population.

Does it make sense that the 1889-CC would be submitted more often than the 1994 PR ASE? I can talk myself into it, because the likelihood of forgery is probably greater and to move the coin, buyers would want more assurance. But if the 1994 PR ASE is representative of the utilization of grading services, that would put the estimated population of remaining 1889-CC Morgans at 279,500.

That leaves us with a range of between 148,000 and 279,500, still a wide variance, but maybe a little closer to actual than the original mintage. At 279,500 coins, that implies a survival rate of almost 75% of the original mintage. Splitting the difference between the two crazy and very unscientific and completely unprovable numbers yields 214 thousand.

It’s frustrating!

As another example, let’s look at another coin of greater value – the 1916 Type 1 Standing Liberty Quarter. Ridiculously low mintage of 52 thousand, value in all grades thus, more subject to forgery and therefore requiring certification. Also, it’s a coin that was very subject to wear.

PCGS has graded 913 examples of the 1916 SLQ, while NGC reports 914. That’s 1,827 graded out of a mintage of 52 thousand or about 3.5% of the original mintage. For that particular coin, I’d be inclined to believe that a larger percentage of the remaining population has been graded than that.

No doubt they exist, but on Ebay today, there wasn’t a single 1916 that wasn’t in a holder offered for sale. And the coin has to be one of the worst wearing coins ever produced, I myself have a dateless type one, is it a 16 or a 17? No way to tell. To me, it would seem reasonable that 20% of the remaining population has been graded, given the rarity and value of the coin. That would put the remaining population (distinguishable, due to wear) at just over 9 thousand.

My 1889-CC is ungraded, and would probably grade somewhere in the G-8 range. I also have a 1794 Liberty cap large cent, original mintage of 919 thousand. I find it hard to believe there can be over 100 thousand of those coins still in existence, but just HOW rare is tough to determine, impossible with any precision.

NGC has graded 827, PCGS 2,129, a total of 2,956. If that’s 5%, then there would be 59,120 remaining examples, that sounds somewhat reasonable to me for some reason. Mine is again ungraded, probably an F-12 by my estimation.

Is estimating population remaining as simple as allowing enough time to pass, then using graded coin populations to represent 5%? I don’t know, but I’m guessing it is closer than assuming original mintages are still in circulation.

So my theory, based on a lot of subjective conjecture, is that there are approximately 175 thousand of the 1889-CC Morgans surviving, and maybe 10 thousand 1916 standing liberty quarters that are identifiable. Like any other theory, its good until it can be proven wrong.

Would knowing the actual survival rate make any difference in the value of the coins? ONLY, if it were generally accepted in the hobby. And I don’t expect the hobby at large to give any credence to my own unproven ideas.

It remains a frustration!

So what are your own thoughts or ideas on the subject?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

isn't that one of the advantages of having them graded and slabed ? Only way I know of that records are being kept , not sure if their is another organization that keeps records of raw coins? or not good Question??

 

If there is another organization that is keeping track of raw coins, I'd love to know it, but I don't think it would be an accurate count. For instance, I inherited coins from my grandparents, unslabbed. I've never provided any information about them to any organization (and likely would be hesitant to do so), there are millions of coins out there like that.

I think it is impossible to know with any certainty a precise amount of surviving coins. What MAY be possible, is for someone to develop an algorithm that would be accepted by the hobby as generally accurate, which would allow general rarities of coins to be estimated.

If a coin is severely worn, it probably isn't going to be submitted for grading unless it's valuable in lower grades. And after a hundred years, that describes the majority of coins that were circulated. That's the problem with solely relying on grading services in my opinion.

 

start a general consensus using I D recignition or is there a an acceptable percentage all ready in place such as so many minted so many believed to be still in existence?

 

"…...but in my determination to know the TRUE rarity of a coin...."

".....just an approximation mind you....."

As soon as you said this, you lost me!

Does anyone have change for a dollar?

Chris

 

I understand your frustration OP. However, not to make you even more depressed, many more factors would also play into it. Local demand for coinage will affect how many go into circulation versus sitting in bank vaults. Sometimes going into circulation definitely lowers survival rates, other times massively improves them. Each coin has to be looked at on its own. Chain cents going into circulation were massively lost to collectors, while 20th century gold coins going into circulation saved them from the FDR melt.

Btw, while slabbers pop reports can be a guidance, they have their own problems. One is cracking out for regrading will distort these numbers. The other problem is collectors like me who bought in the 1980's and refuse to slab their coins. While I do not collect US coins anymore, they are sitting in my SDB "unaccounted for" by slabbing companies. Hopefully my kids will keep them like I bought them. Nothing earth shattering, but a few hundred pretty nice, (AU+) classic US coins all unslabbed.

 

There ARE ways to tell the difference between a dateless 1916 and a dateless 1917 Variety One. See below.



Coins minted in the first year and the last year of issue tend to be saved in larger quantities than a date from the middle years of a series.

There are a number of major varieties that weren't recognized until years after they were minted. If silver many were melted during one of the silver crazes in 1980 and in the current century.

Even certified numbers aren't too accurate-crack outs and re-submissions hoping for a higher grade must be considered in those numbers.

 

sounds like basically impossible to do!

 

Not really what you're looking for, but in A Guide Book of Morgan Silver Dollars, David Bowers gives his estimates of the "field population" of mint state Morgan's. He has been in the game for a long time and his thoughts probably carry as much weight as anyone's.

 

Just between PCGS and NGC, more than 60 million coins have been certified. How many of those do you think have been cracked out and resubmitted?

Chris

 

for me the illusive numbers adds to the appeal and rarity, one of the reasons I like old silver.

 

I would imagine that a 75% estimate would also take into consideration that some coins are resubmitted more than once. Would that be correct?

Chris

 

No. Because the dollars melted by the Pittman act did not come proportionately from all the dates and mints produced. Frankly the melt was probably higher in proportion to dates more recently produced because they would have been closer to the front of the vaults. You also have the question of whether a given production was put into circulation or mostly just sent straight to the vaults. Case in point is the 1884 CC dollar. This used to be a rare coin and very rare in uncirculated condition. Then in 1964 after the Treasury stopped redeeming silver certificates with silver dollars and inventory of the vaults found that 84% of the entire mintage was still in the mint vaults still in the original bags.

To a large extent the morgan and peace dollars never circulated and were mostly just stored in the vaults to be used as backing for silver certificates. Draw down of silver dollars in exchange for silver certificates in the 1950's and 60's is why there are so many Uncirculated pieces existing today. Those pieces that are scarce today in unc are the ones that were circulated instead of going to the vaults.

 

How many of these were cracked out and resubmitted, either trying for a higher grade, or after being sold? How many were taken out, and submitted to the other grading company? Some. So those reported numbers are higher for the individual coins that exist. The actual number is lower than 13,975.

 

That's why I love this forum, LEARNING. I hadn't considered coins resubmitted. Also, thanks GDMSP for your insight. I met someone at a coin show that referred me to a seated liberty book recently published where the author had undertaken the exercise.

I would also suspect that survival estimates are more accurate for coins with higher values, as the certification numbers would be expected to be higher to accomodate resales.

It's impossible to get to the exact numbers, but it does seem that some sort of formula could be constructed.

 

I'm not claiming to have the answer, just an interesting topic, to me at least. I would submit than any survival number for any coin other than "known" examples or original mintages are approximations.

 

THANK YOU SO MUCH! I'll check my dateless type one to see if I have a 16! If memory serves though, those shield rivets look awfully familiar. Probably a 17, but one can hope.

I recently purchased a type 1 1917, nice AU example, beautiful coin.

 

Oh, don't take my comment so seriously! I found someone who made change for me.

Chris

 

There are collectors and organizations that estimate the number of survivors, but the most serious studies are for early American coins, 1792 - 1914. The collectors and researchers estimate the number of survivors by die variety, not just date. There are also survival estimates on a website run by PCGS called “Coin Facts.” I think that those estimates are too low sometimes, but it will give you an idea.

Many collectors use the 1% rule for early coins. Unless a hoard comes to light, many people assume that all but 1 to 2 percent or of the original mintage has been destroyed. For Morgan Dollars, the survival rates are usually much higher because the coins did not circulate well, and many of them were stored in government vaults.

In reality, all Morgan Dollars, even the 1889-CC, is a common coin relative to other coins. When I was dealer, filling Morgan Dollar want lists was not tough from the “finding them” issue. It was coming up with the cash that was hard because many collectors are interested in them, and that drives up prices.

When a customer asked me to come up with an 1895-P Proof Morgan Dollar for him, I found one at a fair price at the next large show I attended. We are talking about a $20,000+ item, but finding it was no problem. Later, when he decided to break up his collection, I sold it for him at a profit.