Determining fair prices for gold coins in a volatile market

Let's talk about $10 Indians as an example.

I can look up Greysheet prices, but mine are usually a few weeks/months out of date.

Even if I get the most recent copy, wild swings in gold prices would still make the pricing incorrect, wouldn't it?

 

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I will be interested to see what is said on this thread. I am starting to watch $5, $10 and $20 gold. Gold is down almost $100 from the first day of the Baltimore show. It had to be tough for dealers to watch spot drop that much during the show. I understand dealers don't want to sell at a loss but the prices have to move down as spot moves. The prices move up quickly when gold moves up. They should also move down at the same rate.

 

They won't if history is a judge. Dealers are much slower to lower prices than raise them. They will not raise prices until new material comes to the market undercutting their prices, forcing them to lower them if they wish to move product.

 

if its a loss, its a loss ....

you can sit on it but the problem is can they afford to ... ???

if not, take your losses and sell and be profitable else where ...

its like stock(s), you win some and you loose some =0/

 

I am just commenting on the situation since i lived through the early 80's downturn in pm, and every increase and decrease since then. Its easy for someone to say "just take your loss", but I was commenting on what dealer actually do.

 

people win and loose everyday ...

i bought parts at a premium and i am next to giving them away ...

every hobby has its risks and even a business

 

I believe medoraman correct - I have seen dealers be much slower to lower prices on the more common dates. The ones with numismatic value might not move at all. Some of the larger dealers can afford to take a little loss based off the volume - and when I say loss it usually means they make a smaller % profit. Kind of interesting to watch some coins at the lcs - I believe they can hold some longer than other dealers.

 

I've seen the same thing too but only the most recent spike in silver when it got up to...what was it...$48 or $49. The LCS that had a $2-$4 premium on Silver Eagles eventually had a $7 premium as the price came down. So when spot was in the $20s they were still asking in the $30s for the coins they were selling in the $40s a couple months earlier.

 

I remember at my old LCS they had circulated raw Barbers that had their numismatic value eaten up by the rise in silver prices, that is, they were worth more as bullion than their grade.

 

I would think as the commons move down many of the others will come down some as well. They all moved up in unison because of spot gold. Say a common was $1600 when gold was around that and a less common was $2000. If there was a $400 difference before there can't be a $1000 difference when gold moves to $1000. I know the very high end coins are not affected as much but I would think many will need to be adjusted. If this doesn't occur then semi key coins would move up every time gold moves up and stay flat when it falls. That didn't happen in the 80's or the early 2000's. When gold was at $500 in the early 2000's you could get more then just common St Gaudens for well under $1000.

 

Many times the decision on changing your prices and taking a loss has an emotional component, not just a financial one. This is not a slam against anyone, just human nature. Pride can also kick in, and other emotions make this more complex then just dollars.

 

For common date silver and gold coins, the spike in metal prices between 2000-2012 essentially eliminated the distinction in value of lower-to middle grades. and for some coins, the lower UNC grades were only slightly higher than junk. examples: 1881-S Morgan or 1881-S $10 goldie: Even now, there is very little diff between F and AU. Two years ago, the irrelevent grades extended up to 62 or 63 for these coins. But the 1/3 crash in metals has restored meaning to the lower UNC grades.

Not sure how much more "restoration" I can stomach...

 

@C G Memminger, as far as grades go, what do you think the "sweet spot" is on $5 or $10 Indians? $5 Libertys?

 

Doug: I need a current set of sheets to give a good answer. Mine are from July and are, sadly, out of date. I'll order up new sheets early next week. About to take a 3-day weekend, and hopefully not fretting about metal prices. I was buying silver at $18.... More at $17.25....more sub-$16. And paying a small premium on junk to get these "low" prices. The premium/discount on junk is a function of expectations. At $15.75 or so, expectations seem to have moved from BUY BUY BUY to edited....

 

For $5 Liberty, I like 63. $10 Indians, 63 also. Don't know about $5 Indians, but my guess would be 58-62. $5 Indians get expensive in a hurry as you go up in grades.

MS 63 commons are good looking coins without a big premium. MS 60-62 can be pretty hacked up or "rubby".

 

I like au to low ms gold libertys especially ones with nice clean fields and good eye appeal. Not much of a premium over spot and a pretty coin. For st gaudens $20s tho I like 64-65 coins well worth the extra couple bucks