I was wondering how inflated population numbers are, if at all. I was sitting here thinking that if someone cracked open a slab for whatever reason and had it re-slabbed that there would be no way for TPG's to keep track of them. Any thoughts? Josh
well, ideally those that crack slabs would send the insert tags back to the company so that the population reports could be updated. PCGS actually pays $0.50 for each insert label you send them. Not sure if NGC pays, but both companies want them back if you crack a coin. I read a story that one dealer had over 10,000 labels from coins they cracked over the years and had eventually returned them to PCGS. I'm sure others do not return them. That said, the pop reports aren't 100% accurate, but I think they are relatively accurate. But if you're looking at a coin that is a pop 10 coin, it may really only be a pop 5 or 6. But you can be certain that the same pop 10 coin is probably more rare than a coin listed as a pop 100 coin.
That was very interesting reply to an interesting question. Thanks for the info on that. I had wondered about that also, just never got around to asking.
I agree with illini's post. Yes, the pop numbers are off. But nothing's perfect. The people census isn't perfect, yet we use it to make all sorts of big decisions; same with the coin census. illini's example of pop 10 vs pop 100 illustrates this beautifully. It's also helpful to look at pop numbers to get an idea of which coins are more scarce relative to price / grade. For example, look at MS64 Indian $10s. The overwhelming majority of the MS64s are dated 1926 or 1932. There are many other dates with similar price tags and much, much lower pops. IMO they are better buys.
I agree with everything you guys have been saying. I know that nothing is perfect, the thought just simply popped into my head. :thumb: I'll have to send in some of my PCGS empty slabs for some milk money!
Re-submissions The more likely coins to be re-submitted are ones where there is significant money to be made in doing so--$200 or more if you get an upgrade. I wouldn't do it for just one, shipping, grading fees, return shipping, make an upgrade a lot of trouble for the profit, if you are lucky enough to get it--"old holder, lock up-grade", especially old PCGS holder, but there are conservatively graded NGC coins. PCGS tends to be conservative when grading coins in the AU category for example, where NGC seems to be likely to grade decent looking AUs "58" if they have minimal wear. I have had some success getting upgrades, and also made the mistake of dipping some coins, thinking I might get an upgrade by doing so. The grading services should offer greater incentives to returning labels. 50c is ridiculous when you are talking about rare coins where pops. are critical. They could offer more money for labels of rare coins, free grading for the return of a certain number of labels, etc. I was talking with NGC today on taking coins out of holders, as I sent in some holdered coins for re-grading, and they were very reticent when I talked about taking coins out of holders. They know every submitter does it sooner or later.
A lot of my coins were stolen, and then recovered. I had to recert them and coins like my 1876 G$1 is now a pop of 3/0 instead of 2/0 (It's a MS66). Nobody else would know that it is really 2/0, it might even be 1/0, who knows!
A few years ago the results of a study on the effect resubmissions have on pop numbers was done and published in Coin World. The people doing the study actually did a great deal of detailed research, which was all related in the report, and invested a huge amount of man hours into the study. That said, the results were still a guess, but a very educated guess. Their conclusion - on average pop numbers are inflated by 20%. That's as close as anyone is ever going to get to having an accurate answer to the question.
Re-Submissions I guess the only way that we would know for sure what population figures are would be for all the owners of a given type of rare coin to come forward with substantiation, and that obviously isn't going to happen....Some folks will never submit their coins to certification, so there can only be approximations of actual populations. There are a number of phenomenal re-submitters, "crack-out" experts. To me the ethical problem is the use of "coin doctors" in the process of re-submissions. The grading companies know who the coin doctors are.
Even if the totals of slabbed coins were accurate they would only state how many have been made. Unfortunately since there are now so many TPGS's around, and I wonder how accurate those fly by night ones are, this is becoming a rather highly improbably question to accurately answer. I know myself I have no slabbed coins. As with many people I know we break out the coins for Albums. Many collectors and dealers break the coins out to attempt to get a higher grade or a better known TPGS. Then too there are the ones lost in fires, theft, floods, etc. Some of those coins may be recovered and sent for reslabbing. Sometimes at a coin show it appears that every coin ever made is in a slab.
A minor typo ? I presume this should say "...how many have survived" which is one key to availability.
You're right, it won't completely happen. But in early coppers (large cents particularly), quite a number of folks have come forward with the rarer varieties to the point that we feel we have a very good estimate of how many exist. Morever... folks have come forward with all the best specimens, even for common varieties, and those have been ranked. So a given specimen is known to be the 5th best known (for example). This ranking is called the condition census, so a given coin is referred to as CC #5 etc. Usually the best 20 known are ranked. Being anywhere in the condition census usually boosts the desirability and bears a premium.
Probably a fair assessment. Some more, some much less. I'd think some of the more common coins that are commonly collected in albums could be off by quite a bit. For example, I've bought some MS FBL Franklins and cracked them out for my ablum. I kept the labels with them but I'm sure many people do not. I've seen some cardboard 2x2s at a show with the NGC labels wrapped around the back of the holder. Lincolns probably get cracked out all the time for albums. The pop reports are probably more valuable for rarer stuff, as opposed to ASEs or something similar. At least theyre something of a reference.
