I was wondering if the bottom is going to fall out in the market for slabbed U.S. coins. The face of America is changing, as it always does, and I wonder if the new Americans 20 years from now will be interested in a slabbed coin from 1846. After all in sales, demographics is everything just as in real estate, location is king. Just was wondering and was wondering what anyone else thought on this matter?
Howdy Andy - Your's is an often asked question. There is one certainty - the coin market goes up - the coin market goes down. This is inevitable. As to when - well - that's anybody's guess. If one looks back over the history of the coin market - bear markets can last for up to 10 yrs but seldom last more than 4 or 5. Bull markets last from 3 to 5 yrs as a general rule. Both of these periods are normally interspaced with periods of slight activity in both directions. We are currently in a bull market which followed a period of slight activity. But when did this bull market start ? Now that is the question. In my opinion it started in 1999 - albeit slowly. It began picking up steam and moving at a faster pace in 2001. By 2003 - it was damn the torpedos - full speed ahead ! So - depending on who you ask this bullish period started anywhere from 1 to a bit over 4 yrs ago. When will it end ? Well - they do say hindsight is 20/20
I think the Bull Market is just beginning. With the state quarter program not fully finished for another 4 years or so, the influx of coin collectors into the hobby is astounding- in the millions! While not all will go on to collect additional coins, I would bet that there will be many that go on to collect other rarer and different coins for their collection. And with the internet becoming more and more a place for collectors to buy (no offense meant to you brick-and-mortar coin dealers out there), slabbed, graded coins are the way to go. Although not foolproof (surely someone will figure out a way to counterfeit), it is a way to know exactly what you are buying without being able to hold it in your hand first and only having the opinion of the seller on the grade. To me, this makes slabbed and graded coins they way to go in at least the near future.
Well let me throw this thought in. This latest bull market is directly linked to the StateHood quarters, and a few other factors. The stock market is running up and down like a yo-yo, which is always a nice thing for coins. The dot com stock boom has went the way of the dodo, so investors are back into coins. This is a big swing for slabs. The registry sets of PCGS and NGC are market drivers. They are quielty sinking in thousands and thousands of dollars promoting these competitions. The internet boom is also a major factor. People like the convenience of sitting at home and buying coins. Slabs benefit from this. Protection is and will always be a concern. Slabs offer this to a small degree. Now this market will swing again, and again. Coins have been collected for two thousand years. Slabs unfortunately are here to stay. I just hope that we as collectors and dealers will make the stand for better grading standards by all involved.
