Ancient coin market

Just wondering what your impressions or the market was nowadays. I am asking since I have either been fairly lucky recently, or the market is a touch soft. Just last weekend I got about 18 coins on Ebay, many of them well below my snipe max, some just barely off their beginning bid. In the last month I have spent about $3000 on ancients, but have received much more value IMO than that.

I hate to jinx myself if I am just getting lucky, but it just seems I am seeing a little weakness in areas I collect, mainly non-traditional cultures ancients.

I know higher end greek and roman are doing well, but what are other areas doing in your view?

 

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As you know, I've bragged about the great deals I've found on Roman Republican coins. I would agree with your assessment, but have no idea other than the economy as a reason.

 

ut-ohhhh

 

You guys have considerably deeper pockets than I do, so I tend to collect more information than coins, which I suppose is fine since I'm just a beginner. I have noticed, however, that I've payed far less for a few coins that really stoked my imagination and collecting interest than I expected to. I don't know whether that counts in any sort of market assessment.

I also collect Kennedy Half Dollars, which are very popular, and the market for those is quite bullish - I can't tell you how many times I've haggled with sellers only to have to pass. So anything else by comparison is rather refreshing.

 

I can't really say if the market is soft or not. I tend to look at completed listings to determine an average price from there. And of course since I'm still pretty new to ancients I tend to go for cheaper coins until I feel more comfortable. So I guess the only thing I can determine is if a coin is affordable for the condition its in.

 

It seems like the cost of Ancient coins has increased dramatically over the past couple of years. Perhaps since around 2008 or so, coins have risen in price I would say as much as 30% from the period prior to that. But, here of late, like I said, it seems the prices have not just leveled, but perhaps fallen some. Just my impression. I have no hard data to back any of this up.

 

You may have hit the nail on the head, maybe its just us finally getting a little used to higher levels, but the market taking a breather.

I am just glad TBH. I picked up just last night nice little parthian bronzes for about $20 per. Gotta love that one scarce coins like those. I am betting the central asian and byzantine gold I got recently more people would like, but I am just excited about little bronzes most collectors turn up their noses at.

 

The market for ultra-high grade LRBs is tough for me. The pieces I really really want are in the $100 to $200 range, so I only expect to collect one per month. But it's an open-ended type set, and I'm in no rush.

I think Roman and Greek will always be universally desirable. The coins from less-collected cultures seem more affordable. I've taken a shine to the Nabatean pieces lately and find nice examples to be considerably more reasonable, price-wise. Of course, the definition of "high grade" is a very different thing between LRBs and Nabatean.

 

It is important not to look at asking prices when determining a market but at realized final sales. I do not buy high end coins and CNG seems to be doing well selling them. The moderate things I do buy are still being offered by some dealers at prices I won't pay but I have found enough other coins from other sources to consume my budget. That is all that matters. I think the question is whether a dealer who realizes that he is not going to get his dream price decides to sell for a fair price or hold on and see if things go up. You saw my recent Augustus/Agrippa Crocodile coins. I bought two for under $250 each and was rejected with a similar offer for a similar quality coin by a dealer who wanted over $400. That is fine, there are plenty of crocs in the pond. I will get the other type I want someday just not today. Buy what you want; pay what you want; patronize dealers you want to see succeed. You and the thousand other people like you make the market. I do expect to see some marginal dealers fall by the wayside. Not every coin bought will return a 100% profit mark up just because somebody sets up a shop on VCoins or eBay and dreams he is a dealer.

 

In recent years it seems that ancient coin collecting is gaining steam and might someday become mainstream., if it hasn't begun doing so already.

I find ancient Indian coins to be by far the cheapest coin fo
r the money. You can get high grade silver of a common ruler for no more then 30 dollars and rarer high grade stuff no one has ever heard of for a fraction of that if you look around.

There does seem to be a decline in the amount of large "uncleaned" lots being sold. For what reason I don't know.

I have noticed alot more Sassanian Persian and Syrian Roman and Greek coins come onto that market, as of late.
Coins of Carthage don't seem to pop up as often and Athenian Tetradrachms are now becoming unforeseeable (for me) in decent shape.

I would almost go as far as to say that coins that we often discuss here on these forums and express interest in often tend to go up in price and sometimes become available, soon after... This I have noticed several times in the last 2 years, coincidence or the dealers are watching the masses.
Who knows I could be wrong but I would like to think that the common collector drives the market.

I don't know but I see a bright future for ancient coins collecting. In the future I see a complete corpus with price guides and charts. Watch...

 

There have been some illogically high prices recently in the higher ends of the market, and some semi-low prices due to lower quality. As a "case in point", there were two coins I was closely tracking at the NYINC auctions and was willing to bid heavily on, knowing exactly when they last sold (13 months prior). These coins had great provenances and were solid coins for their grade, but ended up going for 3-4 times their previous sale price, which was already in the five-figure range. On the other hand, there were some which sold for under their previous sale price which personally I wouldn't have bid on if they cost half as much. Overall, the NYINC auctions realized very weak prices in my eyes, and this is largely because of the lack of quality material, which brought down the prices of some quality coins because some bidders didn't even bother with the sale.

Goldberg's Hunter sale was a mixed bag - many realizing record prices but some closing right around the reserve, and neither of these cases being particularly surprising. There were some stunning coins in the sale, and some which were a bit flat, but they had the right mix of bidders in the room to ensure the top coins realized the right prices (and then some in a lot of cases).

I think it all comes down to quality - at all prices and all grades, the top coins will increase and bring strong prices and the bottom ones will stagnate or decrease. A well struck, original coin is going to bring a premium as it will reach a wider range of collectors.

Long term, I think the ancient market is going to explode even more so than it already has in the last few years. Every country in the world knows about Rome and Greece and can appreciate that they truly were the greatest empires the world has ever seen. The coins we collect commemorate these empires and allow us to hold a bit of their history in our hands.

This interview by CoinWeek about Ancient Coins resonated with me as well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fVRF8GTOCYI#t=253s

 

I haven't been buying any coins lately so I can't comment too much on the market. The last time I bought from ebay was back in November and at that time I noticed that prices were down a bit.

 

Ebay has been quiet this year. Usually Nov and Dec are great for selling then in early Jan demand drops off very steeply until people get paid in February, its then usually back to pre Christmas buying levels. This year the January drought seems to have dragged into February, people seem to be watching their pennies a bit more. Maybe March will see it rise again.

Coins have been cheap, your right, I bought about a hundred in January and early February, most I would consider bargains.

 

BH, a hundred? That's not the BH I know.

 

This interview makes me very sad

Companies like NGC are only 'interested' in ancients as another way to suck money from hobbyists. If they get involved we all loose, if prices double I have to spend twice as much to get what I want.

They have all but sucked the fun out of collecting US coins with slabs and questionably compiled price guides and grading. They set the price (not the value, just the price) and then nobody gets to touch their own coins and many cant help but re-submit to get that extra grade that somehow makes a coin so much more valuable.

"...this is the emerging market right now....a coin like this at $1500 could easily double and be worth $3000."

The ancients I've seen slabbed have all had woefully inadequate descriptions and many have been incorrect. If you like slabs and price guides stick to modern coins and if your interested in 'investment opportunities' go and see a financial adviser, coins are not the best way to make money (the irony )

These companies are the 'new kids on the block', on the whole they are humored but not welcome by 99% of ancient collectors worldwide.

 

Couldn't help myself JW, there were so many good deals

 

Never apologize for buying nice coins at good deals. This hobby, more than most, is a case of "buy what you can, when you can, since you may not ever see it again".

I still have nightmares about the coins I should have bought when they were plentiful.

 

NGC already slabs ancients, but I don't know how much of the market share is available to them. I hear most collectors of ancients denigrate the TPGs, and with due cause, so I'm not sure the slabs will make the coins any more desirable. From what I've heard, it makes them less so, owing to the peculiar aesthetics of collectors of ancients.

I've had my own experience in this regard concerning a piece being offered by David Hall recently, a Falling Horseman of Constantius II. It's a beautiful piece, beautifully preserved, but NGC saying so does not make it worth what David Hall is asking. I offered half, and was refused without a counter-offer. So I've been watching it sit on a shelf, and every few days they put it on sale for 5% off - whoopty doo.

I'm sorry, but for the same price I could buy a nice little bit of Byzantine gold. It's an LRB for crying out loud. Nowhere in the field of ancients do you find more well-preserved coins than in the LRBs. But it is what it is, a top-tier dealer trying to sell a coin in a top-tier slab for top-tier dollars. It might work for an Aureus, but a bronze? I'm not so sure - we'll see.

 

Funny? ... I've never really noticed what I pay for my coins? ...

=> First, I see a coin while I'm cruisin' the auctions and/or vcoins and then all of a sudden the screen starts spinning and all I can see is a long tunnel with a pretty coin at the end of it ... and eventually it appears in my mailbox!!?

:cheers:

 

I know that feeling!!