Accidental Experiment- Disappointing Results

Last month, I went on a bit of a binge in a Heritage auction and purchased 10 coins (Binge for me anyway). Among the coins were these 3:

Postumus, Antoninianus, AU $114 https://bit.ly/3A92dih
Crispus, Bi Nummus AE3, MS $120 https://bit.ly/3C1yn0G
Constantius II, Bi Nummus AE3, MS $109 https://bit.ly/3A0QtOE

Shortly thereafter, I purchased a 20 coin lot that included 11 coins that I needed and 9 coins that were duplicates (I only want 1 coin of each person). My plan was to simply sell the duplicates on Ebay to scale down the cost of the 11 that I actually needed.

When I received the coin lot, I ended up liking the new Postumus, Crispus, and Constantius II more than the ones listed above that I had purchased a few weeks earlier. So I swapped them out and listed the coins above on Ebay. Below are the sale prices before shipping costs and Ebay fees:

Postumus $72 ( -$42, -37% )
Crispus $70 ( -$50, -42% )
Constantius II $71 ( -$38, -35% )

This whole situation was a bit sloppy on my part, and I anticipated taking a bit of a loss on the coins, but I wasn't expecting this kind of differential. I know that this is a small sample size, but the results are pretty consistent with 35, 37, and 42% lower sale prices on Ebay as compared to Heritage for the exact same coins only a few weeks apart.

These 3 examples are relatively low value, run of the mill coins, and while I never enjoy losing money, I'm not terribly upset about these instances. But, when you are ultimately looking to buy a total of 150-200 coins, a ~40% differential per coin ends up being an amount of money that I do care about!

I have put a lot of time into cataloging the results of auctions for all of the coins that I want (mostly Heritage auctions), and based on previous results, I felt that I paid reasonable prices for these coins. However, the results of this unintentional experiment do have me questioning some things:

- Do coins sell on Heritage at inflated prices?
- Do coins sell on Ebay for less than actual value?
- Are my 3 coin sample results a fluke?
- Does it depend on the class of the coin? (For example: Rarities sell at fair value on Heritage, but commons are inflated)

Anyway, I wanted to see if any of you had any wisdom or lessons learned to impart with respect to these results. I have a lot of coin buying left to do, and I want to follow a strategy that will be most efficient in the long run. Because, money saving strategies means more coins!!

 

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Yes

 

eBay auctions are primarily a home for those looking for deals. Generally, coins will often sell for less than they would command @retail, or those auctioned by firms that specialize in numismatics.

eBay also has a lot of uneducated and/or new collectors. Most are interested in 'eye appeal' more than rarity. IE. -- What kind of condition is the coin in, and are the devices interesting to the laymen.

TBH... eBay is a place to sell (loose)coins in the $10-$100 range. Coins that might fetch more than that would be better off auctioned off at an auction house; where they might have more visibility, and more educated buyers.

 

IMHO, the Heritage coin prices you showed are definitely inflated (maybe it's because I've been collecting for such a long time that these prices seem high though). The prices you got on EBay are likely closer to fair market value (price of the coin + price of the slab). For example, Postumus coins in a decent grade are pretty common on EBay France (after all, Postumus was a Gallic Usurper). I got the coin below for about EUR13 in the first half of this year (maybe not as good a condition as your coin, but not too bad either):


Lots to unpack here on the pros and cons, but I'll give it a shot:

1) Coin prices on EBay will usually run cheaper than auctions but there is a higher risk of buying a fake if you don't know what you're doing. Some fakes do make it through auctions as well, but the risk is lower, and lower still if the coin is slabbed (although you will pay for the price of the slab).

2) Auction and EBay prices have been crazy for the last little while... there's been a real feeding frenzy during the pandemic. Based on the CT chatter, this is due to people spending more time at home, looking for new hobbies, or spending more time and money on their existing hobby with the money they've saved from not eating out or going on trips etc. This doesn't mean that there are no deals to be had, they are just fewer and further between than before.

These days, I try to be a lot more selective about the coins I acquire, am a lot more careful about the coins I buy on EBay and auction sites, and try not to get carried away with my bids.

In the end, coin collecting should be about buying coins that you cherish and enjoy and not necessarily about their investment potential (although that definitely helps justify the spend ). Coin collecting is a long game - a marathon not a sprint - so it's ok if some get away (I often find that many come back into the pool within a few years anyway). Read more, learn more, research prices on acsearch, watch auction activity for trends, and explore new ways to acquire coins (different auction houses, LCS, coin shows, EBay, CataWiki, VCoins, Facebook, CT sales & trades, to name a few mentioned here on CT). All of this preparation will help give you a better sense of what the coins you enjoy are worth and will help you refine your transactions so they better fit your budget and comfort level.

 

@Herodotus +1 well said
I will add Heritage is inflated, however you can be 99% certain the coin will be genuine... Ebay is a little riskier.. a lot of fakes out there, but some great low price buys as well.

 

It's been a few years since I bought any Imperial coins, but these prices do seem pretty high to me. I am surprised Heritage can sell common LRBs for this much, even though these are in excellent condition. That said, Heritage certainly has an advantage over you since they have advertising, a huge list of clients, some of whom are terrified of buying coins anywhere except Heritage, etc. Personally when I'm considering bidding on a coin somewhere like eBay or even with new, unknown(to me) sellers on sites like Biddr, or even buying a coin from someone on Cointalk, I do take into consideration their reputation and the amount of hoops I might have to jump through to get what I paid for and to get a refund if something goes wrong. In theory it's easy with eBay, but that is not always my experience. When all that is factored in, it's hard for me to be willing to pay the same price to some random person that I might bid at CNG or NAC with whom I know I'll have a good experience.

That said, I do sell coins on eBay from time to time. I never go with auctions, always fixed price, and I always factor in all the fees and shipping costs, and I always make them US-only, just because I prefer not to sell internationally to people who are completely unknown to me - usually I do allow international when selling on places such as Cointalk or the various Facebook groups. Then I wait. Average time is about 2 months, sometimes it takes closer to a year, but I've managed to sell everything I've listed there. Sometimes I'll even use the feature where I can set automatically accepted BIN prices which makes it even easier. It's really not any faster than consigning and selling at a major auction, but for $100ish coins, it's easier and in general more profitable than trying to sell them at auction.

 

I think of the difference between Heritage and eBay sort of like the difference between a PCGS/NGC graded coin and a raw one. With Heritage, I get the impression there's a level of professional evaluation (assurance) I don't get with eBay. Although, I don't know what (if any) guarantees Heritage actually offers.

 

Agreed, if I were purchasing raw coins, I wouldn't go near Ebay with a 10 ft pole.

However, I purchased slabbed coins and sold the same slabbed coins. In that case there's no discernable difference in risk, therefore, it seems as though any systematic price differences have to be a function of the platform.

 

That's good to hear, less competition. Most of my best deals have been from ebay for the past 11 years.

 

As @Herodotus mentioned, different buyers and sellers likely gravitate toward different platforms for a variety of reasons. I haven't looked at eBay for over a year. Prices are too high, quality is too low, and they began collecting sales tax on coins.

 

The only way to sell for without what you paid is to have established clientele by selling coins every week on eBay. Without that less will see your listings. The other way is to do buy it now pricing, but it could take years to sell.

 

If you can stand to sift through all the crud on eBay, you will find some gold. But caveat emptor if you are not sure what you are looking at…

 

I don't value the plastic as much as most of you. I also don't require AU as a minimum grade. I paid $22.50 for mine (slightly different and not as nice) in 2011 and doubt the coin would being that much today. Were I to send it off for a $50 slab, the price would then be $72 like on eBay (minus their charges and postage). The only profits here might be for the Post Office. IMO this level coin is a waste to slab since the plastic costs twice as much as the coin.


This one is a closer match for type but only AVF with a little silvering (as graded by the seller who struck me as close on most coins). It came from a high priced dealer for $30 and is probably worth quite a bit less than that (half?). I have no idea what the grade of the slabbed coin would be since all we have is a plastic case photo. AU was introduced by the slab people to attract US collectors who could not deal with the fact that ancients almost always graded EF or below before they came along.

 

I agree with Doug's analysis. Each of the eBay coins sold for about double its "raw" value.

 

What I was attempting to get at in this thread wasn't about profit strategies and so forth, as I never purchase coins with the intent of selling them (these sales happened due to unintended circumstances). Nor was it intended to investigate sale platform strategies with respect to slabbed vs raw.

For instance, if I had purchased raw coins from Heritage and subsequently sold them on Ebay 2 weeks later with this type of price differential, then I would be asking the same questions, which pertain to why the systematic price differential exists?

I hope that the paragraph above gets the general point across with respect to the intentions of this thread, but it's not exactly true because the slabbed/raw issue does actually factor into my evaluation to some extent. I would expect Heritage to garner more trust than sellers on Ebay, therefore, a price differential should be expected for raw coins. However, with slabs, neither Heritage nor Ebay sellers are really factored into the risk evaluation, so I find it surprising that this type of differential would exist under those circumstances.

In short, the questions do not pertain to the actual prices paid, or the value of the plastic, but to the % difference in prices on the platforms.

The photos are high resolution, and if you really want to have a closer look, then clicking on the photo will take you to an interface that allows you to zoom in on the coin. It's not as good as a pre-zoomed photo, but it is pretty good.

Totally agree. I often wonder why NGC Ancients didn't just bite the bullet initially and derive a new grading system for ancient coins. If they intended to use the entire spectrum, then XF, AU, and MS for ancients could never actually mean the same thing as they do for moderns. If they are not going to mean the same thing, then why use the same system?

I mean, really, what does MS mean for a coin that was hammered and buried 2000 years ago?

 

I've been selling coins on eBay for over 20 years. In the past I've auctioned them off with $.99 opening bids and no reserves. (I'm dating myself; I don't think eBay has reserve prices anymore.) The majority of the coins ended up selling for between 1/2 and 2/3 of their typical market value. That's been fine with me because they were duplicates and I just wanted to recoup some of my original investment so that I had a little more money to spend on the next batch.

I've switched to fixed price listings for now, usually listing the coins for between 75-80% of market price. I make a little more money on them now, but I don't sell as many, and some coins linger for months before they sell.

The point is that if you sell on eBay, don't expect to receive Heritage or even VCoins prices for your coins. If you're more concerned with selling the coin, use the auction format. If you're more concerned with getting something closer to market prices, use the fixed-price format, but be patient.

 

This seems to be right on the money to me. I don't understand why the prices would be different, as they are both e-auctions of slabbed coins and, if anything, Ebay should have a bigger pool of potential buyers. Who knows!?

But, another lesson to take away from this is, as a buyer, the best place to land coins is auction listings on Ebay. However, this will also require extreme patience because worthwhile listings like this do not come up very often on that platform. I actually think that is the real advantage that Heritage has, and what drives the prices up, there are reliably multiple coins up for sale on a schedule that can be had immediately.

 

The two have vastly different audiences.

EBay - Is mostly novices, the majority of whom aren't familiar with ancient coins. Many collectors (myself included) avoid it like the plague due to the high number of fakes. This means the majority of buyers don't have deep pockets and aren't willing to bid things up too high, though they're also not aware of the true prices.

Heritage - Mostly high-end buyers with deep pockets. Because they sell a lot of slabbed, they also attract buyers from modern coins, who aren't aware that slabs don't matter for ancients. Many of these buyers also aren't aware of pricing, but given their deep pockets tend to bid things up.

Personally, I avoid both EBay and Heritage, but for different reasons. On EBay, there are just too many fakes. There are sellers I trust on EBay, but all of them are either on VCoins or ma-shops, and I buy from there. I understand that if you really know what you're looking at, there can be great bargains, but I prefer the lower risk of buying only from sellers I've vetted and trust.

For Heritage, I've bid a few times on there, but at least on the coins I've pursued they've gone 50% to 100% over what I felt they were worth, so I moved on.

 

Which also explains why auction closing prices are lower.

 

To some degree. EBay seems to be one of the few places where one can find many ~$10 coins that are only included in other auctions as part of lots.

Given the lack of knowledge on many EBay buyers, though, it seems there's the tendency to bid up nicer ($25-$75) coins to more than they're worth. Many of these coins are cheaper on auctions like Roma and Savoca. On the reverse side, occasionally a rarity pops up and is picked up for a good price by someone here because few EBay buyers are specialists.