As many of you are aware, the price of silver has gone up about 30% in the last month. In this same time frame, the value of most collectible Morgan dollars have either held steady or have gone down. Very few have gone up. It is no different with art, rare cars or other collectibles. Most collectibles reach a peak price when an economic cycle is at its top. Obviously, we're not at a top now, we're crawling out of a hole.. I am holding on to a fair amount of uncollectible silver. My strategy is to trade this "junk silver" for collectible Morgans. I have a local dealer who will do this. Since I believe that the price of silver will continue its upward trend, I see no reason to start trading until the price of the collectible Morgans begins to accelerate or the price of silver stops rising. I think silver has a ways to go.. What do you think of this strategy?
I think so as well.. Silver crested above $19.00 last July before the financial markets imploded. There's certainly more uncertainty now..which should help push it along..
See this leads back into the quality vs. quantity thing. Dollar for dollar, if silver continues this streak, ten coins might indeed be better than one. Just a thought.
I think this will be true until the economy starts perking and people are freer with their money...but that time may not arrive for awhile..
As to your question - there's obviously nothing wrong with the strategy. How could it be wrong to sell what you have at the highest price and buy what you want at the lowest? I think what you're really asking is whether silver is going to keep going up!!!
I've got an opportunity right now to buy a bunch of Morgan dollars AU-low MS for $14 each. These are common dates & mm. They are unsearched for VAM varieties. In the last batch I purchased from this guy I found about 40% were MS 60 to MS 64. 40% were AU and 20% were body bag material. I'm going to call the guy now & see if I can make an appointment to get them. Very best regards, collect89
I think that timing the market rarely works, and you should hoard/collect what you like, not what will make you the most money. But that's just me, and YMMV...Mike
You're right..timing the market is never 100%..I'm thinking more along the lines of dollar cost averaging and if the right coin(s) are available that'll make me pull the trigger as well... What I'm not...is in a hurry...
I think you are making things more complex, which rarely works. If the goal is purely to make money in a rising silver market, then keep whatever silver you have that trades closest to spot. If you buy coins with significant numismatic value above spot, do it because you want to collect the coins. Even if you think you are buying at the right time and selling at the right time, the spread on numismatic coins might wipe out most of your additional profit.
My observations on market conditions are: 1. Spot price of silver is rising, I believe it will rise more in the next six months. 2. Price of collectible Morgans is flat for most dates/conditions and up for a few dates/conditions. This is consistent with the trend in other collectibles such as art, fine wine and rare cars. Generally, top prices for collectibles occur at the peak of economic cycles. I don't expect prices on Morgans to rise substantially soon, so I believe that the spread between spot and collectibles could widen. I have years of investing experience, my day job is at an investment firm/Swiss bank. One thing I have learned is that if a strategy starts to crumble, leave your ego at the door and change your plan. Flexibility has saved my bacon more than once. Regardless of which way spot silver goes, if I see collectible Morgans I want to buy (slabbed or not, but likely slabbed), I will sell enough "melt" to cover these purchases. Again, I am not in a hurry. I see coin-collecting as something to enjoy, not an additional source of stress. This forum is particularly enjoyable, responses from people like yourself are well thought out and provide insight into areas that I have questions about.
