2012 Silver Eagle Set. If mintage maxes out at around 300k what will the value be?

If the sales of these is around 300k i think the after market value on these will be from $250 to $300 for the set by the end of the year. Do you guys agree?

 

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I disagree. It sounds to me that they are going to produce these sets to fill the demand...which means the mintage will be as many as they can sell. Because of the huge price jump with the 25th anniversary sets last year, I suspect tons of these sets will sell because people are hoping to "cash in." As a result, the market will become saturated and they won't have a huge value on the secondary market.

 

Based on the first few days of sales, I've reduced my guess from 500k to 300k. If it doesn't make it to 150k in the first week, it may go as low as 250k.

 

How much ya wanna bet the mint site goes kaput the last two days and all the folks waiting till the end will be gnashing teeth......

 

It wouldn't be the first time. I wish I could order a set but I'm on a tight budget right now (it will be a few months before I can start working). But, at least I got a 25th anniversary set from the mint last year.

 

Keep in mind this is a odd time of year for these since many people buy them for themselves and as gifts around the holidays. The mint only announced this set a couple of months ago and if you are a casual collector that only checks the U.S. mints site every six months or so you could miss out.

 

I bet the fatso dealers ain't missin' out..........

 

I'm with Green on this one. I bet many people are going to se somewhat low mintages on the last two days and totally flood the market trying to get their tons of pieces

 

Actual coin collectors will buy their set during the window for ordering. Many collectors didn't have this chance on the Anniversary Sets. So the flippers will have to sell to a reduced market of just uneducated investors, and brand new novice collectors, instead. Will they bite on a price that's inflated over the mint's price? I don't think they will have the disposable income for it or the interest that the Anniversary Sets generated.

 

We...we...we...agree?

 

Agreed. Plus the window concludes right around the 4th of July holiday. I do not see the merit in waiting until the last few days.

 

I would guess that the set would max out at about $300-350 in 70 grade. Not as high as either the 2006 or 2011, as the mintages are going to be much higher.

 

You gotta figure the last days of the sale will sell as many as the first days.
Lots of people are sitting on the fence, but will jump off before it's over.
Then there are the speculators that ordered some in the first days, and will order more at the end.
Those guys say they are waiting to see the numbers, but their profit motive will justify more sets no matter what the numbers say.

It's going to be a fun ride though.
In the end, like so many other mint products, these will be cheaper on the aftermarket.

 

What is "mint to demand" anyway when they were beginning to mint these things before ordering began?

Think about it. They have the price pumped up, they are in it for the revenue, so what is to keep them from minting more than what is ordered? Either by overzealous minting or by design...

The order end date might come and go, and they have surplus. Then it goes on the mint site as an open product, like the rest.
I wouldn't be surprised if the mint already decided how many they were going to mint before the selling even started.

 

I disagree. I'm guessing that they will only sell about 50k sets in the last week with 150k sets in week one. The two middle weeks may reach 100k for a total of 300k. If the first week doesn't get to 150k, it may go as low as 250k. The only ones on the fence are us. I may buy another set in the final week but I'm thinking that the average coin collector won't. It is just too much money for them. I think that the flippers won't either but they may surprise me.

 

You made a similar comment a few days ago on the topic and when asked you haven't replied with which products are cheaper on the aftermarket... I'd like to see some examples of this.

 

I suppose you could be right...and if that is the case, I would interpret "mint to demand" to mean "we can always make more." So, if they sell really well and the initial number sells out...they could simply make more to fill the remaining orders. I think the point is, these sets won't (can't) sell out like the 25th anniversary sets did last year.

 

Your point it moot. The Mint's decision to prepare coins in advance of orders makes effective business sense as they are fully aware that their marketing and the popularity of these sets will draw in plenty of orders. Any they don't sell would be destroyed like other coins once they are no longer available for sale. A very large amount of 2009 UHR coins sat in inventory and eventually were destroyed, melted and made into new blanks for other coins several months after sales ended. Orders of these 75th Anniversary ASE sets are a safe enough business decision to proceed with minting so they can get them out in due course of the year they are minted in, as indicated this will be about a month after orders have been placed. "mint to demand" means just that, mint enough to fill the number of orders they need to fulfill (i.e., demand).

What I am curious about is returns and/or exchanges of this product. Will the Mint be able to offer exchanges if cherrypickers want to return coins for new ones? If they mint to demand, will returns only be met with a credit, exchange for other merchandise or our money back? What then happens to the returned coins? Straight to the scrap pile?

 

They cannot simply make more... they can only take orders for a set period of time which they have defined. Minting more beyond that period of time (period of demand) would SERIOUSLY undermine their credibility amongst collectors and that would impact the numismatic Eagle program as well as the Mint's profits. I believe the legal issue of only Minting coins in the year of date on the coin would come into play here too, so if someone tried to place an order of say 30 million sets of these coins, the Mint may not be able to mint that many in a year, nor have the resources, manpower and materials to deliver them all. If the Mint decided to honor a massive order, they may also offend the individual collectors who would again be shut out from ordering as the larger order would consume all available material, in such a far-fetched scenario.