How likely would it be for the real 1964 peace dollar to turn up and would anyone recognize it with all the fake and overstrike 1964s out there?
I think the bigger question is "would anyone admit to it", given that they're unambiguously illegal to own?
I see it as an easy tell. I believe a real example would be easily distinguishable and have tell tell signs that it came from the mint. An authentic example I believe would stand out like a sore thumb.
I'll bet they wouldn't. They aren't numismatic experts, especially in classic coins. Their business is modern counterfeits and its effects on the economy. Like that recent catch of millions of fake $1 bills.
Maybe in a country with no extradition treaty with the US. If i had one and wanted to sell I'd head for one, then go public.
As soon as you let it be know you had one the Feds would be at your door. After a grilling session with you on the grill that coin, real or fake, would be taken from you, without compensation and you'd be fortunate if you didn't go to jail.
I myself believe that there is at least one out there somewhere. I don't believe it is in private hands. Could you imagine having one and having to keep your lips sealed on the coin that never should have been.
Urban myth says there are 2. 1 in the hands of an heir of the Supervisor of the Denver Mint and one hidden in the LBJ library given as a gift from the Supervisor of the Denver Mint. When the coins were recalled and melted, it was only done by weight, all were accounted for, however a switch could have been made and the weight would balance. Plus not all coins weigh the same, so the weight measure is not going to be completely accurate anyway. If these 2 coins exist, I believe they would be taken at the beginning of the process by the mint director, early strikes and nice examples,(before they were illegal coins) and not at the end.
If they did it would probably be overseas where it would be harder for the government to try and make a claim against them. Just don't try and bring them back to the US. Maybe, maybe not. They requested the return of the 1974 D aluminum cent, but didn't go knock on his door and confiscate it. The owner turned it over voluntarily. They have also never actually gone after the Toven specimen of the 1974 aluminum cent even though they say it is government property and illegal to own as well. By law pattern coins struck after 1896 are government property and not legal to own, but they have never gone after those either.
Give them time. The government does as it pleases. Hope the person(s) holding those coins don't try and sell them.
What does that mean, "illegal to own" ? If it wasn't meant to be publicly released, does that mean that a few samples or even 1 sample is not legal to (1) use in commerce (if you are stupid enough to do that) or (2) possess as part of a collection ? Do coins require an official "release" statement by the Mint or Treasury ?
Mint and BEP officials are ALWAYS taking the 1st batch of coins for themselves, friends, dignitaries, elected officials, etc. Unless a coin is COUNTERFEIT, how can a legally-produced Mint coin or BEP currency bill be "illegal" to possess unless you can prove it was stolen ?
Treasury Department officials ruled in May 1973 that the 1964-D Peace dollar is illegal to own. No examples of the coin have ever been authenticated. If any pieces were to have escaped melting and entered the collector marketplace, the silver dollars are subject to confiscation by the Treasury Department. United States Mint officials hold the position that none of the silver dollars were ever officially released and thus all remain government property. According to Mint records, two test strikes resurfaced. The two coins that surfaced were apparently from the 30 test pieces that were sent to Washington for inspection. Those two coins remained in the Treasury Vault until 1970 but were immediately destroyed by the U.S. Mint as soon as they were discovered.