I recently inherited a significant gold and silver coin collection that my Dad had assembled over a 50 year period. His wish was that I would use it to suppliment my retirement in 18 years, or so (I'm 48 now). My intention was to continue to enjoy and add to the collection for the next 15 years and then slowly sell off the collection during retirement. I'm starting to get very concerned now about two issues that may affect the pricing of investment grade coins in the future. The first issue is Chinese counterfeiting. The Chinese now have the technology to make virtually perfect counterfeits and I see no obvious scenario to solve this problem. The second issue is the "greying" of the hobby. Lots of older guys now with the resources and interest to invest in coins, but will their "replacements" be there in 15, or 20 years? The younger folks that I interact with now are very technology focused and not interested in the traditional hobbies that my Dad and I could relate to equally well. I have a wealth of great memories participating in the "Hobby of Kings" with my Dad. What are some perspectives on the future of investing in coins?
Gold is supposed to go up according to the t.v. I would say stuff could go up. This hobby is worth being in forever. Stuff could go down or up. You can never know. CAC and certified coins command premiums and there is a lot of gradeflation. I would say sell in the future to take advantage of the huge certified coin market. Silver is also on the undervalued side. Demand is always out there for the most liquid hobby in the world. PCGS and NGC coins get the highest as far as certified coins go. I would stay away from basement grading companies because their slabs do not help the value a great deal. PCGS and NGC graded coins if they are not in counterfeit slabs should be legitiment. I would say sell when the market reaches its peak. Never go by just the t.v. ads about gold and silver investments. Never listen to the t.v. or newspaper ads that hype this stuff. Silver and gold are always good to hold. Especially gold. So never sell cheap to anybody. I am just ranting here but this is all good advice I gave you. Good Luck!
First off, welcome to the forum. There is a wealth of information on this site and if you do a little reading you will increase your knowledge in the 'hobby of kings'. As for investment, I'm sure Dad put away some beautiful pieces in that collection if he intended that you use the proceeds to supplement your retirement. The general consensus in this forum is that coin collecting isn't an investment but rather an enjoyment. Sure, everyone collects with the thought that their collection (hopefully) will increase in value down the road but there's just too many dang variables to assure that. If you're worried about Chinese counterfeits then I would suggest that you send some of your more valuable pieces into one of the major TPG'er services to assure authenticity. As to the younger generation....wait till you're around in these parts for a spell. There are quite a few YN's on this forum and they are really top notch collectors. I'm truly amazed at the knowledge they possess. They can run rings around me.
You make some good points, but I don't think its a concern. The greying of the hobby has been around as a concern since I was a 10 year old and heard all of the old dealers talking to each other about it. It seems a lot of people get into the hobby in middle age, since it is no greyer than when I was 10. The best defense with Chinese counterfeits is to notate when coins came into your collection and when. Any coin purchased at auction in 1982 I am not going to scrutinize too closely. You can always have them slabbed for authentication in the future as well. I don't know your financial situation, but if you knew you wanted to get out I would do it over the course of a few years at least. In the meantime, I don't think there is any rush to dispose of them, and I think they will at least keep pace with inflation. Now if you had bullion, I might have another opinion. Btw welcome to the forum!
This is a very interesting thread to me. I hope my sons years down the road are faced with the same as you. Here is what I would think about concerning your collection: 1. In your post you mention about adding to the collection over time. That means to me you don't need the money from these coins, so time is on your side. 2. The time on your side is a good thing. Most people will tell you the value of these should go up over time. While I agree with those that say it consider a couple of things. Our saying that is nothing more than speculation and PM prices/coins can have some very flat periods. 3. If you did sell the coins what would you do with the cash? Those items offering a guarenteed rate of return are horribly low at this point of our economy. The stock market is very shaky right now. After me saying this I don't think you could own anything better than what you have for potential growth. 4. I'm sure what you have right now is very beautiful. I have read numerous threads here where people sold coins and down the road wish they hadn't. This in itself is for several reasons. It includes a missed increase in value had they been retained longer, sold a family heirloom, and sold off something they can never replace. After stating all this I would keep them. I would learn more about what I have to include their grade and value. Down the road if you decide to sell a young collector will be older with more disposable income and buy them. Make no mistake there are a lot of young collectors out there, many amaze me with their knowledge.
Greying of the hobby. Yawn. It's mentioned everywhere. COINS always have value and are seen as such. Youngsters may start collecting, but lose interest as more interesting and titilatting objects walk by them. When they have a LOT more disposable income, guess what??? They come back. Because people like to THINK that coins are an investment - actually they are NOT an investment unless you have $10,000 or more to invest in individual coins. But the myth that coins are a good investment will always live on - after all - mere mortals (the fabled middle class) have to have something to hang on to......)
Thanks! Thanks, for your insight. I should have used the word speculation instead of investment as I know that is the case. My Dad was a pretty savvy numismatist and collected some very nice material - always with a speculation in mind. He had been a subscriber to John Kamin's Forecaster since the 60's and wisely followed many of the recommendations. He was also a follower of George Haylings and as a result, I've also got lots of BU rolls. I have not quite figured out the BU roll speculation thing yet!
I think,I don't know, that bu rolls are bought when certain coins and certain dates are made in a lower mintage amount, they are hoarded by collectors for a number of years or decades till the coins are alot older and circulated peices are gone or junk, and hard to find good examples of them for collectors, then you pop out a roll of BU coins that are hard to find and demand a premium $$$. The trick is having the right coins socked away and keeping them socked away as long as possible, pretty much forget about them, then as prices increase the value can go through the roof.
Some wise things have been said on this thread already. As Mr. Coin Lover noted, the stock market is presently shaky. However, since you have a long-term horizon, have you thought about spreading things out over a diversity of instruments? That way you can enjoy the hobby as much as you'd like and still hedge. I'm sort of in the same boat as you (sans the significant collection!): I'm 51 and curious about the what the future of coin-collecting holds.
I wouldn't worry too much about the Chinese counterfeits. We've had people making counterfeit coins since the beginning of coin making. The Chinese government is and will continue to crack down on the counterfeit coin makers because they will be counterfeiting Chinese coins as well as other countries currencies. All countries have this problem to a certain extent. It is up to us coin collectors to get as good at picking out the fakes as the fakers are as good at copying them. Being able to pick out the fakes is part of the "fun" of being a collector. I'm using "fun" tongue in cheek.
I agree all countries have had fakes, but do not take the Chinese threat too lightly. They historically have always made loads of high quality fakes the instant a real coin is introduced. It really has been the bain of Chinese commerce for 3,000 years. The only change is now they are copying our collector coins, not theirs, and the quality is improving. Chris
Last I checked the polls MY young age group is still in the lead thank you very much!!! 21-30, If these polls are true in the hobby, there will be plenty of collectors for ever P.S. 21-30 is a link to the poll!!!
