Director Moy apparently has confidence in 5-oz quarter bullion coins

I predict that they will not be offered for less than $150 if spot sticks around 18. I also predict that within 2 years of issue I'll be able to get one for spot plus $10-15.

 

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Today's spot ask price @ the close of NY markets was $18.40.

Bullion ASEs each sell for spot plus $2 or more per ounce. About $20.40 (minimum)

The US Mint's subscription page for 2010 ASEs still reflects prices similar to the last ASEs that were offered: Proof-W $31.95 and Unc-W $25.95 each.

Those prices would surely increase if the collector versions of 2010 ASE are released this year. I don't know how much but just look at the difference from those prices to market spot price today.

ASE Bullion $20.40

ASE Proof: $31.95 - $18.40 = $13.55 over spot [I believe I saw Elaine_1970 posting an estimate in the low $50 range for Proofs]

ASE Unc-W: $25.95 - $18.40 = $7.55 over spot [I believe I saw Elaine_1970 posting an estimate in the mid to upper $30 range for Uncs]


Now, let's look at the competition, the 5 oz. 2010 Mexican Libertad selling from Apmex today at the following prices:

Proof: $199.95 [Currently *again* sold out]
They were selling earlier this year for $199.95 back in the third week of March when silver spot was $17.08/oz. ask and $20.57/oz. Apmex Ask price]

Unc: $131.95


If the US Mint offers a new series 5 oz. coin, and we (for now) go by today's spot price and using the old ASE prices listed above, at a minimum we would expect to see prices around this range, minimum!:

Proof-W $159.75

Unc-W $129.75

I would suggest we add another 15% to those prices (plus consider your shipping expenses later too):

Proof-W $159.75 + 15% ($23.96) = $183.71

Unc-W $129.75 + 15% ($19.46) = $149.21


Now those prices are approaching that of the Mexican Libertad 5 oz., yet they're unattractive looking prices for the consumer perusing the Mint site. They would certainly adjust them to look like other numbers you are accustomed to seeing on the Mint's product listings. maybe:

Proof-W $199.95 or $205.00

Unc-W $159.95 or $165.00


There's just no way that these Park 5 ounce coins are going out the door for anywhere near market spot prices or under $100 like an earlier poster is holding out for. The economy is not improving sufficiently this year to warrant lower silver prices, in fact silver was up over 2% today. With the amount of money the Mint has into the program to date to figure out how to Mint these coins and to do so in a timely fashion with the release of the other Parks products while marketing is backing them, they would sooner not release the 5 oz. coins or find a way to get the coin legislation changed to prevent their release than to be forced to sell them for less than they bought the blanks for and they certainly are not going to offer them for far less than the competition.

Just some things to consider...

 

I expect a price between $124 and $150 for Proofs and Uncircs. Between $100 and $124 for bullion pieces.

Personally, I'm boycoytting the entire thing so I don;t really care what they sell or resell for.

I'd really like Moy to just go away.

 

Excellent Analysis!

 

Agreed.

I think these could be some very nice, interesting coins. I think they would be a hit with collectors since many of us are getting older and bigger coins are easier to see. I think they would be a nice addition if bought on the secondary market on silver weakness. If they were low enough subscription, (no sellout), I think a guy could even make some money buying these direct from the mint. Doubt that would happen though.

Thanks again Krispy for the good posts and information.

 

Thanks guys. I will be interesting to see what happens with them. I hope we see something new from the Mint that we can appreciate and not shake our heads at while pointing at the Director for mucking up again. I'm not sold on these coins yet but anxiously awaiting progress about them and release for a better idea of their potential amongst collectors.

 

I had started a thread a long time ago which attempted to list the ways the US Mint controls and keeps collectors interested in modern coinage! The real reason imo that the mint stopped minting the ASE proofs is to spark interest and maintain control. You may say, well how does that increase business for the US Mint? It's not done to increase business, they have all the business they need! It was done to raise the interest in collecting ASE's period! My theory is that the collection was getting too big for ppl to stay interested (money wise) in the series. By stopping production of the Proof series, then collectors only have to focus on 1986 thru 2009.

Just like they have the 2006W thru 2008W unc, that sparks interest and makes those years worth more money! Just like when they minted the buffalo in 2006 I think, it was a 1/10 and is the only year. Have you see the stoopid money ppl are paying for the little buffs? It keeps ppl interested! If they didn't do stuff like that they would lose control and/or everyone who is interested in moderns! just my 2 cnts

 

I have a strange feeling that these are going to come out just in time for the holidays. TC

 

Ho Ho Ho!!! Merry Mintage!!!

 

I am not forecasting what the mint will sell them for, just stating what the price would have to be to pick my interest. I'm not particularly interested in helping the Mint make an obscene profit.

 

I would probably buy them for a decent price. I won't pay anything obscene though

 

Meh. These tokens don't excite me at all, and there's better coins this money could be used for (such as beautiful classic coins). Perhaps they should use more resources towards amending that law and releasing some silver proof eagles before they fail for a second consecutive year. I have been boycotting the mint until they release proof silver eagles again. The mint has some really poor offerings at the moment, and some of the nicer things are too expensive. There are only 2 coins in the proof sets that I like (shield cent, Native American dollar) and I have purchased them on the secondary market instead. They can take all their other president ridden coins and throw it in the trash for all I care. I'm getting sick of all the worshiping of the presidency on the coinage in general (bring back Liberty!). That's just my taste of course, but who cares what I think. :hail: