Modern Investment Portfolio

The way I'm collecting right now is in reverse chronological order. I'm completing all modern coins and then doing a free-form type set of older coins.

The coins I'm working on now are:

• Lincoln, Wheat and Memorial
• Jefferson Nickels
• Roosevelt Dimes
• Washington Quarters
• Franklin Halves
• Kennendy Halves
• Ikes, SBA, Pres, and Sac

I'm a collector, not an investor, but I like my hobby to at least help support its self financially. So, the question is, what coins do you see increasing in value substantially within 5 years (from non bullion reasons)?

I don't want to spend for than $250 per coin, preferably in the under $100 range so I can have more.

 

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I have a feeling the rare coins will increase in value more then the common coins. With that said I would look at series which are rare and out of favor with collectors at the moment. I actually think walking liberty half, Franklin half, Roosevelt dime, and almost any barber series coin have lower prices then their scarcity would indicate. If these coins come into favor in the future the values of their rare years will go up.

An example would be the 1950 s dime with a mintage of around 20 million in MS66 sold on ebay for $40 versus 1915 D cent with mintage of around 20 million selling for 60 raw in AU condition. I know mintage is not the only factor in survival of coins, but that is my quick thinking.

Update. I quick search on heritage turned this up, 1950 s in MS67 sold for 60, in PCGS there were 180 in this grade with 7 higher with 1000 in all grades, so the MS67 is top 10%. an XF40 1915 D sold for 60 as well, and in PCGS there are 46 in this grade with 250 higher out of a total 429 in all grades, so the XF40 is around 40%.

 

I am a collector as well but IMO I like the silver Kennedy halves and think they will keep going up. I try to buy them slabbed when possible. The Franklin halves can be picked up cheap right now even for MS grades so I like them. The Jefferson nickels are beautiful and tone quickly so I gamble that the toning will improve the value of my collection. I collect the presidential coins and Ikes but only to fill my Dansco

 

Just be careful of who called it MS67. Not all TPGs are equal by a long shot.

 

Early copper, colonials seem to be on the move, I like capped bust material.

As far as moderns go I think your best shot is to try to buy early and flip modern commems on ebay. Some you will do well on and others you will be lucky to break even. Roll profits back over into inventory when the next new issue comes out, and after you sell out your initial inventory avoid that issue like the plague. Most of them spike initially (that's when you make your money) and then crash and burn and in the long run turn out to be poor investments.

 

I know, if it was that easy we would all be rich right. I was just pointing out that rarity alone does not determine the value. Interest/demand is the other factor, so in terms of investment ideas, buying rare coins in the series that currently have low interest could pay off when interests change, which they will. Like value investing in stocks...

 

Ok, so I'll buy some 1950-s dimes, some franklins, and some veteran comm. from the mint. Anything else?

 

None of them.

A longshot is that you're keen enough to pick out undergraded (or ungraded) coins and have them upgraded -- because none of those series are going up, IMO, and coins, as a general rule, are a terrible investment.

 

i completely disagree with that. I think their a GREAT investment. They dont depreciate. their something you can actually hold that you invest in, and their ALWAYS gonna gradually go up in value. Most are a GREAT long term investment, Poor short term investment. Errors and stuff are good short term spikes.

 

OK. Win me over....

Please post your long term investment wins in coins. A brief discussion of inflation as well as transaction costs and how they can kill any coin investment would also be appreciated.

I'm open minded to being wrong, and heavily invested in coins as well. Please, win me over and tell me why they are good investments....Mike

 

Well, they might not always have returns as big as other investments. But they certainly are in most cases a very safe and stable investment, in the rare case the value decrease, its not by much.

An exception would be buying at the tip of a spike, like an ebay spike after an item can no longer be bought at the mint.

I'm mostly looking to buy before a spike.

 

When you factor in 10-25% buy and sell transaction costs, 5-ish% inflation, and taxes, they are terrible investments.

And if you're planning on buying before a spike and selling into it, you're not investing, you're speculating.

 

A "safe and stable" investment especially long term is rarely a "great" investment Usually, if you are lucky, you manage to keep up with inflation. Most people who make money with coins win at short term speculation not investment. And typically for every winner at short term speculation there is also a loser.

 

Glad to see you appreciate the "Moderns", although most have little or no investment potential. I do like the satins and silver proofs, appears to be some low mintage sleepers in there.

 

I think of coins as an expense which has the potential to give back a rebate. I woudn't buy a coin for return (other than when it got ridiculously cheap in the late 90s), but it's a far better return than green fees, movie tickets, etc.

 

FWIW, I think that's a much better way of looking at things, Marshall.

I do find it noteworthy that the two most experienced numismatists on this forum, Conder and GDJMSP, both agree that coins are not a good investment. The less experienced among us (to include myself) would be wise to listen to and consider their wisdom carefully...Mike

 

I Agree with you Marshall :thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb::thumb:
My coin collecting is a Hobby with the chance for a lightning strike where you can run
across something un attributed or under graded.
It is a source of relaxation for me. If I tried to turn it into investment vehicle
it would take a VERY Enjoyable Hobby and turn it into a point of stress. :headbang:
No Fun There. Like there is not enough stress in every day life.

I turned a hobby into a business once when I was younger.
I had a collection of over 300 Antique firearms. I absolutely enjoyed the hobby
and the people involved. A friend talked me into opening a Fire arms shop.
I HAD To do it every day. Not because I wanted too. Absolutely ruined the hobby for me.
My 17 year old son now has more fire arms than I do.

Terry

 

modern investment is an oxymoron IMO

 

Probably, unless you resale mint products after they're discontinued.