Since the advent of the TPGs I have often thought that they are the real money makers in the coin business. It is undeniable that they have made the market for modern MS and PR 70 priced coins w/the population report and relative scarcity. Before TPGs was anyone paying 10-20 times values for coins that no one could tell the difference in (PR69-PR70)? Anyway I bought stock in PCGS (CLCT) and have made good money and assume that will continue as the fad continues and say bravo to David Hall for making a market. On the same lines I started thinking about the CDN (greysheet). This another great little money maker. Most everyone uses the greysheet to some extent if they buy or sell much. I would assume that the publisher are likewise making a good deal of money. I started wondering how accurate is it really? What made me ask this question was that is is relatively easy to buy some coins at greysheet and much harder to buy others. So, should the prices be adjusted? As an example, I will use Bust Halves in F to VF which I buy because I feel (to me) it is a sweet spot for the coin. In general it is easy to buy coins in the 1830 at greysheet, harder to buy them in the 1820's at greysheet, and good luck trying to get the early ones from 07 thru 1819 at greysheet price. So are the prices really an accuate reflection? I don't think they are in this case. Which leads me to assume there are plenty of other cases where it is doesn't accurately reflect the market. I know it is a great tool and I also know it is not the only tool, but I don't think many people will argue that it is the most popular or main tool of pricing in general. I keep coming back to the feeling that who is making the most money is not the ones buying the coins, but the ones fueling the desire. Just a thought... Lack
Actually, the TPGs don't set the asking price, or fair market value, of any coin. It's all in the seller's head that MS or PF 70 coins demand a high numismatic value, when in reality they don't deserve the high, overpriced, value some sellers place on the 70 grades in MS or PR. They're still the same coin whether in a slab from a TPG or a 2x2 flip.
I know the TPGs don't set the price, but the fact is those prices weren't paid before the advent of the slab and they would not be paid not without the slab grade of 70. We know that no one pays close to that price thinking it will come back a 70. I think the practice is to send in a bunch of moderns hoping for a certain percent of MS70's or PR70 . I talked to dealer recently about this at a show and he told of another who would send in a large group of the newest coins to PCGS and get a certain percentage of 70's back, then resend those same coins with some others added and get back more 70s. He said basically he resubmit the same coins and get back some 70's that were 69's previous. Sounds like a moneymaking business to me....This dealer agreed, he also told me he wished he was the one selling all the 2x2's and flips. BTW-I have never bought a coin graded MS or PR70 and probably never will because I feel it is a total fabricated market. Lack
To lackluster... All price catalogs, lists and publications tell you that the price of a coin listed is the average price of that particular coin (some sold for less, some for more). Being that the Greysheet carries the latest average selling prices of a coin at a specific grade and is used in dealer to dealer transactions, makes it a valuable guide for all, but it is still only a guide. If you are looking for a sure thing, study Mail Bid Sales. Clinker
However, most price guides list a fair market value to a coin regardless of whether it's in a TPG slab or 2x2 flip. And, it's only a money maker to the seller if the coin(s) sell at their asking price, which a lot don't. Remember, a coin is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. I find MS-69 and PR-69 just as appealing as a MS-70 or PR-70. One of my dealers has a 2007 ASE MS-70 by NGC, for $47. They think it's ridiculous some of the overpriced MS-70 coins, that people think demand a higher premium simply because the 70 is after MS or PR.
This is a common misconception. What people always forget is that prior to 1977 the grade MS/PF70 did not even exist. It was only after the ANA came out with their first set of grading standards that the grade even began to be used. And at that time there were only 3 MS grades - 60, 65 and 70. That's it. You must also remember that the coins that were graded as 70 always sold at a substantial premium to the rest. And that premium was proportionally roughly equal to what it is now. It stayed that way for 10 years. And there were no slabs. Then in 1987 the ANA published their new grading standards. These standards were much stricter than the previous set. For example, coins that had been graded as 65's instantly turned into 63's overnight. And it was not coincidence that the ANA published their new standards in '87 and that the TPGs came into existance at the same time - it was a planned event. The same people who formed the TPG companies, PCGS and NGC, helped write the new ANA standards. And, for a time, the TPGs followed those same standards. Today, when we see coins graded as 70 being sold at high prices, we forget all about what went on prior to that. Because the muti-thousand dollar prices cast $$$ signs across our eyes and we forget about their relationship to the cost of coins with lesser grades. But if you examine what those coins of lesser grades sold for 20 years ago and compare that to what they sell for today - you will see roughly the same relationship between what the 70's sold for back then and what they sell for today. The only thing that is really different today is that now there are more people out there, most of whom actually know very little about coins or the coin market, that pay what we see as these outrageous prices. Of course to a large degree that is because today there are far more coins graded as 70 than there were before. But then minting technology and quality has improved greatly, so more coins of 70 quality are produced making them much more common than they ever were before. So what should be happening, and is to a limited degree but yet one that is seldom noticed because of those $$$ signs blinding your eyes, is that the values of the 70's drop instead of climb when compared to what they were before. But few even want to notice that effect because all they want to think about is how much money they have made, more correctly think they have made, by owning those coins graded as 70's. So what is seen, or what people think they see, is a false indicator. And in time it will catch up as more and more people become educated about coins and more and more coins of 70 quality are produced and graded as such. Eventually the 70 grade will become so common for certain coins that even those who know virtually nothing about coins will see that commonality and this nonsense will stop. But until then, those who persue the coins with 70 grades will continue to see $$$$ in their eyes and be blinded by what is really going on.
So then we'll have to have a 71 grade to diffrentiate between an extra special perfect coin versus just an average perfect one?:rolling:
This is the only point you've raised where I will have to disagree. There are just too many people who don't care to be educated because it is too much like work. All they care about is the fast track to fortune. A perfect measuring stick of this is the fact that venues like Coin Vault, Franklin Mint, Danbury Mint, etc. have continued to be successful for decades and there always seems to be a supply of new, uneducated customers replacing those who have, regrettably, learned the error of their ways at great expense. I seriously doubt that it will ever change. Chris
Perhaps, but I hope I'm right and you're wrong. People always accuse me of being a pessimist. Well, this is one occasion where I am an optimist