Hot and cold types/series

New collector here. Trying to do all of my homework and "buy the book before the coin", but I was curious about trends in the market that I wouldn't be able to spot from the book. Being new, my value baseline is pretty much based on the Red Book and what things are going for on eBay. But without any sort of historical context, I feel like I'm missing a ton of the information needed to make buying decisions.

So I guess I'm asking, are there any parts of the market, or certain types, that are very much in demand right now, or where demand has fallen off from some time previous?

Thanks

 

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Franklins

The Franklin half dollar values have dropped in the past couple of years.
Now is a good time to get some in the higher grades.

 

Howdy and welcome. It is quite wise to do as much homework as possible and most folks do not take this step. Currently, any classic US gold has seen substantial gains in the last few years because of the increase in the spot price of gold and also because of an increase in the numismatic premium of such coins. Other than that, most series ride waves of price appreciation and then some period of neglect or relative falling out of favor. Additionally, grade ranges within series can react quite differently within a specific market as can toned vs. white or untoned coinage. Lastly, a segment might appear dead, but in reality this might be due to having too few choice coins available at a given time and the market is reacting to what it perceives to be lower quality on the bourse.

 

Hi, psu!

I just thought I'd mention that Tom is a very savvy collector, and any advice he may offer should be taken seriously.

He just happened to mention toners, and this is an area that has been pretty hot of late. Certified rainbow Morgans have been riding a wave for some time now, and I think this is, in part, due to the tightening of the standards for toners by the major grading services. As a result, some collectors are a little hesitant to submit new specimens for fear of them being details-graded, and this is driving prices upward on existing supplies. Good bargains can still be found on ungraded toners at shows (try to avoid eBay), but it is still unclear how long the TPG's will continue with their current practices. These toners would still be a good investment to hold for future submissions.

Chris

 

Time to buy: 1. Pre-1982 Commemoratives, particularly the higher grades, are a real bargain right now. 2. I agree with Victor on the Franklin Halves. 3. In many cases right now, AU Gold coins in common dates are going for not much more than spot. It's also a good choice if you think gold is going to continue to rise(which I do).

Time to sell: 1. The State Quarter program gave a temporary boost in attention to the earlier Silver Washington Quarters but I think they've peaked. 2. I know a lot of collectors will disagree with me on this one, but I think Walkers have gotten a little bit ridiculous. I think they will, at best, remain at current values for the next 5 to 10 years. Of course, I used to complain about having to pay $365 for Saints too, ha! 3. Silver Eagles, you never really lose money in them but you never really make a lot of money either. They just kind of sit in your safe, take up space, tie up cash, and offer little or no numismatic pleasure.

I'd also recommend buying an old red book, say 2005, to compare the coin values then against values now. This can sometimes give you a feel for which coins will appreciate the most over time. Hope this helps!

 

I am a little confused by your question. Are you wanting to collect coins as an investment or collect coins because you are drawn to them because of their beauty, history, etc. If you are coming in wet behind the ears with the intention of making money, you are most likely going to lose money. It takes years of studying gradeing systems, getting more specialized books, participating in forums, going to coin shows, coin shops, auctions and if possible, join a local coin club, to get the feel of what a good coin is and its value.
If your intention is collecting coins because you like them as a hobby you still have to do all the previously mentioned things.
The Red Book is a good beginners book, not so much for the listed prices(which I don't find to be that accurate) but for general information and pictures of all the different series that can be collected.
I would advise that you start with an inexpensive series that catches your fancy and which would not be to great a drain on your money and get some books that are dedicated to that series. What you learn doing that, you will carry to the next series that catches your eye. It takes time and obviously the longer your at it the better you will get.
I have been collecting off and on for 52 years. It can be a rewarding hobby.
Welcome to the forum - Rick

 

Thanks for the answers everyone!

GDJMSP - Very cool link. Was wondering if there was anything like that out there, but definitely didn't expect it.

2CentRick - I'm getting in to collect, not to invest. I just think that having a little historical price perspective may be good additional information when I'm making buying decisions. I definitely need to find some coin shows in the area.

 

One issue that I perceive as VERY soft is Roosevelt dimes.
I believe it's continually overlooked hence prices are low.
Even Jefferson nickels get more respect.

I put my money where my mouth is and now have a complete silver (1946-1964) business and proof strike set.
All the business strikes are slabbed MS-66.
All the proof strikes are slabbed PF-67.
(No varieties)
And if you decide to go this way consider getting Full Torch coins.
Some day this set will start moving up but it will take a while.

 

I agree with you about the Roosevelt series, although factors that greatly diminish interest for me are their small size, stale design and huge mintages. I do like the proofs and varieties though, which can still be purchased quite reasonably. TC

 

I think your analysis of their interest level is accurate.
And that's what I attribute their low catalog value to.
If they ever change the design, watch out!
That could easily trigger a rush to purchase, therefore higher prices.

 

Lincolns, particularly Matte Proofs but also other Linconls, have been on a tear for the past few years. Time to sell, IMO.

 

Im a total novice at coins, but you see this happen all the time in other area's. Once they change the design nostalgia will hit and the coins, and their design, will be viewed in a much different light.

I think this is similiar to what is going on the Jefferson's, some of those coins have very low mintage and are still reasonably priced when compared to Lincoln cents with similiar mintage.

 

Some good sources for pricing info include the major auction sites (Ebay, Heritage, Teletrade) and also the retail asking price at major dealer websites. A person might see what is "hot" by observing which coins sell quickly on the dealer sites at full boat asking price. A few dealers mark down older inventory. Those coins that don't move even when steeply marked down might be deemed "cold." Of course, these ideas are generalizations and a lot will depend on the merits of the individual coin and the asking price.

Researching the long term price history of a series in the auction archives can also be instructive. Those with average prices trending down are likely to be cold areas, those trending up in average price.

For many coin series there is bifurcation, or even tri-furcation, meaning that even with in one series the perceived quality of the individual coin determines whether it is sought after or not. This is often much more important than whether a broad series is moving or not.

 

If collecting, avoid whatever the investors are buying up. Thats the best buy advise I can offer. Anything gold and large silver coins are selling too rich right now, as investors gobble them up. You'll see when the time is right to buy them, when the investors start to lose their edge on them and dump massive amounts at prices below what they paid. Because of periodic cycles like this it's hard to get a historical perspective on what is a good buy and what isn't because it exagerates the market with hyped and inflated prices. If you want to see whats a good buy check Ebay and see what listing mostly go unsold. Barber dimes, 3 cent nickels and Franklin and Barber halves are always in that category. Thats why it's been easy and cheap for me to assemble three or more sets of each over the years.
Guy~