OK say we have a coin minted in the 1800's Mintage say 16 million. Survival rate who knows. At what point would you say a hoarder would have enough coins to influence the market price wise? Say I have 3,000 coins would this be sufficient or do you think it would take more?
I'd say that depends on a whole lot of factors. And every coin would be different. Quality Key date or not Surviving amount Timelyness of releasing the 3k coins Coin market in general Type of coin Ect....
Quality: mixed G4 to High MS Surviving amount: Don't know of any way to measure this If they were dumped all at one time I assume the market would not bear the volume without a price drop so they would have to be introduced slowly in order to remain relatively unnoticed. Coin market in general :Lets say the average price has tripled in the last 10 years Type of coin: lets take my avatar for example..
Well if it's 2 centers the 64 it would have to be as the others later in the series get to limited of a mintage. But I would say a 2 cent 1864 mixed grades from G to Unc could change the market with 3k of them if word got out. But with 6k would change the market. But that's just my guess... If you have that many I'd take a few or at least a heads up on the coin as I have plenty of 2 cent peices that I'd like to get rid of real quick
As pointed out 1t would have to be the 64 if it were 2 cents but then we are talking 19 million not 16. If a heads up were given then that's kind of defeating the point of manipulating the market. Unless it caused a price drop enabling the purchase of more coins at a reduced price... I admit its not pretend Duke Kavanaugh want to sell me those 2 Cents at 80% greysheet before they are worthless....
I was asking for just me as that would not really defeat the point anymore then adding 3 coins to the hoard But it would make me much more relieved to have the knowledge
I really only have a few.. http://www.mycoins.us/USA/2Cent/2Cent.htm Just thinking ahead wondering what it would take..
Ooh! Ooh! I know. You could do this. Go onto E-bay and count the number a certain coin listed. Then you could look at the number of coins listed for something where the number of available coins is very well known...like a commemorative that came out a few year ago, or something. You could compare ratios. Then you could refine that ratio with other coins of known mintages. Example: Suppose that 1,000,000 coins commemorating the 20th anniversary of modern commemorative coins were made. And there are 1,000 of them listed on ebay. Then suppose that 100 of "your coin" are listed on ebay. You might be able to conclude that there are about 100,000 of your coins surviving because it makes up 10% the listings of the commemorative. Steve
If they spanned multiple years, as per a previous question I had: Mintage of Silver 3-cent pieces from 1853-1872 equals 17,885,600. Dumping 3,000 on the market all at once would have an impact, provided that the majority of those 3,000 coins were of later years (note that the majority of those coins minted from 1863 through 1872 were melted in 1873)...
I would have to say if you were able to accumulate enough of the coins to possibly have any market infuence on them, then the coins didn't have much of a demand to begin with, which means you could own almost all of them and have no impact whatsoever. Guy~
Well, yeah... but then again, there's been examples of hoards being found in families that did influence availability. This occurred with the Cohen Hoard and the 1773 Virginia Halfpenny. See Notre Dame link for more info: http://www.coins.nd.edu/ColCoin/ColCoinIntros/VA-halfd.intro.html There's also been hoards of currencies found, like the Hawaii Hoard, and bank hoards, like the Fugio - Bank of New York Hoard
This is what I was thinking. If a collector over say 50 years removes coins from the available pool at the rate of say 100 a year the impact will be cumulative as the pool of available coins becomes less and less. Then after his death his family dump the coins on say Heritage. Releasing 5000, coins of the same type back into the market all at one time I would think would have a measurable effect on the market for this type of coin. What once was hard to find now becomes fairly easy to acquire. Did not something similar happen to Morgans with the GSA sale?
GSA - yes. IMO the scenario you describe is plausible. Though I would think that 'dumping' them on the market all at once would dilute any Rate of Return (ROR). In case you're interested, there's a good book that Bowers published in 1997. I've got it as a reference: American Coin Treasures & Hoards, Q. David Bowers, (c) 1997, ISBN 094316169X. You can get it used for about $99.00 USD. - CheetahCats
It really depends on condition of the coin,s your talking about, Lower grades I would think would have little influence, Higher grades that would be another Story!
