Poll: Do you think this year's economic conditions will change coin pricing?

So, the markets are way down this year: bonds are falling; inflation's way up; some predict recession; cryptos are tanking; gas is ridiculous; mortgage rates are way up and real estate is super expensive; gold and silver are in free fall. And, there's a Russian ICBM aimed at my house.

I don't know about you but I'm feeling a lot less financially healthy this year thus putting a crimp on my willingness to spend on coins. I can tell it's impinging on the population because even my wife has taken to consolidating shopping/errand trips to save on gas. In honor of @Insider, here's my emoji, the very first I've ever used on CoinTalk.

Have you observed any change in coin pricing from these events and if you haven't, do you think a change in coin pricing is on the horizon?

Feel free to expound on your thoughts. Poll closes in two days.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I'm honored. These things add feelings. Some have told me prices of bullion are going down when they should be going up due to world events. Folks are selling metals (a quick and easy way to get cast) to cover stock losses due to political decisions about energy, crime, health, invasion, food, and everything else. But CT is no place to mention anything important in our lives. Aside from bullion, if life conditions do not change, there is no way most of us will be able to afford adding to our collections. Thankfully, there is always CRH.

Wait! I will not be affected because your coins are mine for awhile. I had two U.S.A.O.G. $50 .887 Fine Slugs on my desk this morning. One had the last digit in the date worn off but I figured it was an 1851 rather than an 1852. Anyone want to look on the Internet and see how easy it was?

 

At present I don't believe that any changes are at hand. The market will be what the market bears...
You'll always have fluctuation in any market based on todays or this weeks events.
So many variables some that we as individuals can control,and others we cannot.
As you stated your wife making cuts where possible , great course of action esspecially for us retired folks living on our pensions, SS, and savings.
However none of us have a crystal ball, and to try and out guess the world events at present,the war, pandemic, shortages world wide on goods as well services...its a jump ball.
I suggest to sit tight ,watch your spending, and ride it out.... as individuals thats all we can do.

 

I think a bit of both myself….. I think that PM’s went white hot after Covid set in and I think they are still riding that wave and will continue to do so until some sense of normalization can take hold……. On the other hand, I think collectible coins will take a hit. Heck, we don’t have the spare cash laying around to keep buying them.

 

I doubt it. It will bring more coins to the Market. I understand the implication that the average collector will have a value loss, but that is relative to the entry point of the collecting and the quality/condition of same.

Which would the average person want to hedge with at this economic juncture: NFTs or numismatic items with well documented historical pricing data? A person wants a muscle car classic. The person shouldn't go to the Friday Night Dump Auctions. The person should go to Barrett-Jackson, or, if willing to settle for a doctored classic, Mecums.

Same with coins; eBay or the neighborhood dump auctions or recognized dealers offering a recognized trustworthy TPG..ANACS, PCGS, ICG, NGC....where the person can have some comfort that a person with more knowledge and advice than the neighborhood carney barker auctioneer or joey on eBay is giving an opinion?.

Everything is relative. The coin community will be fine. Buy and collect. It is good for the mind.

Want proof? Just read how many old...really really old.... people are on CT, and still coherent (excepting my failure).

 

who knows what the next day holds just take things one day at a time

coins will always make it though hard times they have before and as for taking a hit doubt it

 

If inflation is more money chasing less goods, coin and bullion prices should rise. If the economy crashes with widespread unemployment, mortgage foreclosures, and fire sales of all available assets in a scramble for cash, coin and bullion prices may fall. I think the inflation scenario is the more likely. In either case I would rather have a handful of silver half dollars, than a share of Facebook.

 

Yes, bullion prices have definitely gone down, as far as popular gold coins like graded Gold Indians, those are still pricey as ever and I don't see prices coming down on those any time soon. That said, if we are hit with a recession, it's anyone's guess where the prices could go but I think they'll go down just a tad.

 

I think people will cash out of things like the stock market and put their funds into tangible assets lie coins art land and areal estate precious metals etc. if inflation gets too crazy the ones with gold silver gas oil land guns ammunition even food will be the lucky ones. I have an acre and a half I can grow food on am an adept hunter and fisherwoman and skilled gardener and own my house clear. Best advice I can give is get as far out ofdebt as possible as soon as you can. Stuff is scary out there

 

I went with the "no changes" option. For now the coin market remains strong (and has been since 2020) and I don't expect that to change in the near term. People who can afford to spend are looking for places to park money (before it is further devalued) and physical assets are a popular choice. Stocks and real estate are the more common choices. However, the recent declines in stocks might scare enough people away (even if it's not logical, people tend to gravitate towards things that are increasing in price rather than falling). Real estate on the other hand might be becoming too expensive with higher mortgage rates and diminished supply of property in popular areas.

In terms of what I follow, toned Morgans, I've seen no evidence of prices falling. Instead I keep seeing numbers that are strong and even unexpected (just watched another yesterday go for about twice what I figured it would typically bring). And there are probably more people buying and selling toned Morgans than several years back (which should help keep prices steady as one or two people leaving the market won't influence final results too much).

 

You think this is a passing thing?

 

It has been steadily increasing since I started closely following toned Morgans in 2015 (and really accelerated after 2020). There are plenty of young/new collectors that are attracted to the eye appeal (who doesn't like pretty colors ) and plenty of veteran collectors that continue to buy. Blast white was the rage for a long time (people would dip almost any color) but that has gradually shifted over the last 15-25 years. Could the pendulum swing back? I think it's possible but I don't think we will return back to people dipping nicely toned coins anytime soon. The eye appeal factor has now been ingrained among a large enough group of people, that even if prices fall, there will continue to be buyers for the material.

 

Certainly that chart reflects what we have all seen and heard more anecdotally so far this year. However, past is not prologue. We still have 7-1/2 months to go this year.

I am convinced that, so far, the American public has not internalized the economic changes. Individual investors have not fled the stock markets, maybe due to simply not having good alternative investments, but they certainly have not fled the markets into cash. Most of the market drops are caused by institutional investors to this point. Drivers on the roads have not internalized gas prices as evidenced by driving behaviors. It took a little time during the last big gas price run-up for drivers to slow down, reduce trips and be less aggressive. Little to no sign yet that drivers on the whole have adopted those strategies in this price run-up, yet.

How does any of that translate into future coin prices this year? That's the purpose of the poll.

 

Auction results.

Are you of the opinion that $100 Million worth of collectible coins bought within recent months is only a temporary reflection?

$50-75 Million more in collectible coins are coming up for auction in a very short period. Do you think the buyers and the prices are only a temporary reflection?

These collectible coins that were or will shortly be bought will most likely be off the market for the foreseeable future, and will reset pricing to the next level. The level in the auctions that have already occurred and are about to occur, are incredible gains/increases. The collections have been off the market from 3-10 years (a few were 20 years).

What is interesting, is the same type of economic situation occurred 10 years ago. And 14 years ago. And 21 years ago. Here we are.

A collector should buy what they can afford. An investor should buy what they can afford. Any time.

 

If inflation continues at its present pace, a lot of middle class collectors are going to have to scale back their purchases because of the prices for energy and food. The wealthy speculators and the big ticket collectors will probably push up the market for high end material.

The last time this happened in the late 1970s, I scaled back to colleting a set of Two Cent pieces in EF. The investors were not interested in those, but it's set that is hard to do. Finally the crazed "investor market" collapsed, and I could get back into collecting. A lot of people got hurt financially when the market to go down big time. A couple of vest pocket dealer friends lost $6,000 on a 1910 Proof set (cent through half dollar) and were lucky to do that "well." It kept falling after they sold it.

 

Poll Results to the question: "Do you think this year's economic conditions will change coin pricing?"

A) Yes, prices will increase the rest of the year.............7 votes
B) No, prices will not increase the rest of the year.......2 votes
C) Not yet, but I think an increase is coming...............2 votes
D) Not yet, but I think a decrease is coming................8 votes
E) No changes yet nor any anticipated........................5 votes

No clear consensus on the actual poll. More or less an even split between optimism and pessimism although I leave it to you to decide what those terms mean in this context.

BTW, I voted A.

Thanks for playing.