Why is machine doubling not worth much?

Discussion in 'Error Coins' started by Joelfke, Mar 3, 2010.

  1. bhp3rd

    bhp3rd Die varieties, Gems

    What does this have to do with this fairly important (to me anyway) thread?
     
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  3. desso

    desso Junior Member

    not a lot... continue reading at your lesiure.
     
  4. justafarmer

    justafarmer Senior Member

    Look at it like it was a roulette table. There are 38 numbered squares. Two squares are colored green, 18 are colored black and 18 are colored red. Although only 2 squares are colored green this fact, meaning the color of the number, has no impact on the probability of which number the ball falls into on the wheel. The event of the ball falling on the 00 which is green is no more rare than the ball falling on the 1 which is black. Being that there are less green numbers means the probability of the balling falling on a green number is less than a red or black number but neither of the green numbers are any rarer than any of the black or red numbers.
     
  5. jallengomez

    jallengomez Cessna 152 Jockey

    You're simultaneously mixing the odds of landing on one number vs. another with the odds of landing on green vs. any other color. The odds of pulling a given number(or a coin minted by a particular die) are indeed equal with all other numbers(dies). However, the odds of hitting green(the doubled die) vs. any other color(regular dies) is very low.
     
  6. bhp3rd

    bhp3rd Die varieties, Gems


    I now officially have no idea what you are talking about but it reminds me of a story. I prey someone can make sence of your claims because some how some way I do believe that you believe what you saying.

    Once on eBay I called a guy out for listing a mechanical/machine doubled coin as a doubled die. He stated and kept saying well "it's doubled" so it's a doubled die right? He is a fairly big time seller on there.
    I went on and on for days back and forth trying to no availe to explaine, site examples, tell him how dies are made yada, yada. Finally as I was telling him about the 1955 DDO then I finally in frustration asked him, "you do know the 55 DDO Lincoln was not struck twice don't you? He then said "no I kind of thought that it is what it was"!
    I then was floored and could only think if I or he could have started this whole thing more simple we may have gotten the "meat' of the matter sooner.

    So justafarmer I ask you please: "get stupid with me for a minute" and help put this in another, not yet seen light or way of understanding even I can get okay? "Cause this hillbilly ain't a gonna get it like you a been epslaning hit"!
     
  7. 19Lyds

    19Lyds Member of the United States of Confusion

    But, if the ball doesn;t get tossed, then it won't fall on any of them.


    Yeah, I know, silly answer.


    But then its a silly analogy and has absolutely nothing to do with coin collecting or variety attribution but has everything to do with odds on "absolutes". There are no absolutes in coin varieties since the US Mint does not report everytime a DDO or DDR die is pulled from a production press and subsequently attempts to destroy all the coins produced from that errant die.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Drusus

    Drusus Pecunia non olet

    This is not a valid comparison, a comparison is not needed here. If you have a billion coins. 999,000,000 of those coins are error free coins and a million of those coins are errors...that means that the error coins are far more rare...its just that simple. You chance of getting one of those error coins is another subject as far as I can see and does not affect how rare they are...but certainly your chances are much lower to get one of the errors when there are 998,000,000 more error free coins.
     
  9. errorman

    errorman New Member

    I have many coins with extreme,Machine doubling. I keep those,I would say the ones that you could see with the naked eye, are the ones that would fetch a nice premium as Mike indicated ,

    Alex
     
  10. malak1

    malak1 Junior Member

    Sometime machine doubling is more than just "minor." I keep this 1972 LMC for reference even though it's not a true doubled die. It still has a significant shifting to me.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  11. Zzyzzyth

    Zzyzzyth Junior Member


    It doesn't get any simpler than that.
     
  12. justafarmer

    justafarmer Senior Member

    Let’s approach this from a different angle.
    The 1980-P cent mintage is approximately 10 times greater than the 1960-P cent mintage. 7.5 billion for 1980P compared to 750 million for 1960P. Keeping the assumption that a working die’s useful life is 1 million strikes means 8250 different obverse working dies were placed in service to produce this coinage. Suppose you have a bin full of 100,000 coins (a true random sample) that fairly represents the total population of these coins. In other words your bin contains (1960-P) 9090 cents and (1980-P) 90910 cents. There are I believe 6 different 1960P and 1 1980P obverse doubled dies cataloged on coppercoins for a total of 7. That means 7 million of the 8.25 billion coins struck exhibit the characteristics of an obverse doubled die. In other words 7 out of every 8250 coins were struck by an obverse doubled die. That means 84 of the coins in your bin were struck by an obverse doubled die.

    If you leave the bin as is the odds of you reaching in and pulling a 1960P-1DO-001 from the bin are the same as pulling a 1980P-1DO-001 from the bin. It is true my odds of pulling a 1960P doubled die from the bin is 6 to 1 greater than pulling a 1980P doubled die from the bin but still none of the doubled dies are rarer than the other. There are 12 specimens of each doubled die in my bin.

    Now if I were to sort this bin into 2 bins – 1 containing only 1980P cents and 1 containing only 1960P cents there would be 90910 coins in the 1980P bin and 12 would be doubled dies and there would be 9090 coins in the 1960P bin and 72 would be doubled dies. Now if I were to reach into the 1980P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there is 7500 to 1 but if I were to reach into the 1960P bin my odds of pulling a doubled die from there would be 750 to 1. But in truth the 1980P-1DO-001 isn’t any rarer than any of the 1960P doubled dies.

    So I’ll state my point once again but in a different way DOUBLED WORKING DIES may be rarer than Working Dies that are not doubled but the coinage they strike isn’t any rarer than the coinage struck by any other working die. A doubled die coin’s value comes the ability to use the doubled characteristics and easily attribute it to and identify the specific working die that struck it.

    Does this clear it up?
     
  13. bhp3rd

    bhp3rd Die varieties, Gems

    No! Because your thinking is clinical and abstract and not applicable to the odds (in real life, or even in a dream) of the rarity of finding a doubled die coin.
    You thinking could be stretched to having a tiny grain of truth for common minor doubled dies with full die life but no one will care, why, because again it is not applicable to real world situations and it concerns common full die life doubled dies.

    Look I've been around math people and accountants before and all data can be twisted and leaned to prove anything - this is what you have done. After working with MBA's in Govt. I quickly learned that at the end of the month white can be black and 100 can be 2 all it take is manipulation of data and different justifications for such.
    When pushed to support an argument simply in numbers alone most anything can be twisted into the truth.
    This is a great pitfall of many modern buisness practices. When a corporations priority's becomes tracking so-called buisness processes the numbers and processes suddenly become the goal, or job instead of original job itself.

    You gave us information that was not needed and not true because you seperated it from the "real world experience" or odds of collectors chances of finding true doubled dies "where we all have to find them"! We don't find them in any of your cited examples. Not even one of your explanations is a real world situation we will face.

    We search for a 1980-P Lincoln DDO-001 first in all cents and all dates that we can, could or have been obtained. That is any given roll, bags or box we can find within the United States. That is defined as a random bunch or portion of all of the billions of Lincoln cents that we could buy or somehow get on a given day anywhere. We can narrow the search by buying only 1980-P bank wrapped rolls or if they could be found bags but that is it!

    Lets pull out those real world chances "that we search in" and you tell me the odds given these.
    "in all cents, all dates that we can, could or have been obtained, any given roll, bags or box we can find anywhere, as a random bunch or portion of all of the billions of Lincoln cents that we could buy or somehow get on any given day anywhere, narrow the search by buying only 1980-P bank wrapped rolls or if they could be found bags"

    We don't ever search as you suggest, we search the all, the can, the might, the given, the could, the availible, the random, the portion, the anywhere, the somehow, the billions, the if, but never do we or can we search the way you have citing.
     
  14. jallengomez

    jallengomez Cessna 152 Jockey

    Aside from the fact that the various doubled dies from 1960 and 1980 do not exist in equal numbers, the original disagreement was centered around the statement:

    Now we've gone from comparing doubled dies and normal coins to comparing one doubled die to other doubled dies. I think we've already established the rarity of doubled dies compared to coins with normal characteristics. Are we now talking about the scarcity of one particular doubled die from other doubled dies?
     
  15. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"


    Thats cool!, Thanks for sharing :)
     
  16. DoK U Mint

    DoK U Mint In Odd we Trust

    Odds Are

    Odds Are~I'm gonna need to read this thread again.

    Got mostly through it before I accepted it was making me dizzy.:goofer:
     
  17. micheldura2

    micheldura2 Senior Member

    I hope you don't mind Frank...but this helped me a lot! :hail:

    Treashunt
    The Other Frank

    [​IMG]

    Join Date: Oct 2006
    Location: New York
    Posts: 17,686


    Machine Doubling
    Just for Newbies, and who ever has more time on their hands then they know what to do with, I thought that a review of machine doubling (aka Strike doubling, and other names) would be in order.

    Machine/Strike doubling happens when the die (usually the upper or hammer die) is placed into the machine and is not tightened completely.
    As a result of this loose fitting, the die is able to rotate, that is, move slightly each time that it strikes a coin.

    Because of this motion, the die moves or 'scrapes' along the (now) coin and slightly (ever so slightly) moves the die across the face of the coin.
    The result is that the struck devices on the coin are 'moved' that is, they are shoved in one direction or another.

    The net result is that there appears to be another image of the (usually) lettering on the coin.

    This is not to be confused with a doubled die. In doubled die, the die has been 'impressed' with the design elements and then reheated, for the impression to be made again. (The purpose of this is to enhance, or improve the design on the die.)

    With a doubled die (please note: it is a doubleD die, NOT a double die. The die has been doubled.) The doubled design is the same height as that on the original, or first image.

    With Strike doubling, the secondary image is usually very slight, that is, it is very close to the original image. With a doubleD die, the secondary image may be close to the first, as with the 1995 Lincoln cent, where the primary doubling is on LIBERTY. Or more distance, as with the 1955 doubleD die cent's date. And, rarely, extreme separation, as with the 1969 doubleD die cent.

    True doubled dies are scarce, and usually of very low mintages. The one, popular, exception is the 1995 doubled die cent, which has an estimated mintage of from 600,000 to 1 million pieces. Despite the large mintage, it still sells for a fair premium in uncirculated, but is not worth a great deal in circulated condition.

    The machine/strike doubled coin is considered by most collectors to be damage to the coin and therefore, not worth as much as a coin without the strike doubling. Some collectors, purists, coinsider it damage and will only pay less for such a piece.


    I have been criticized for saying that coins that have machine/strike doubling have "no added value". I have stated this not because it is just my opinion, but also that of the 'experts' in the field of error coins. they have taught me a great deal, and the first thing that I learned was: strike doubling has no added value.

    If you, the collector, decide that it had a value to you, then go for it, pay a premium if you like. That is the joy of coin collecting, we can each collect what we like. But, don't expect to mke a profit on the coin, unless you find a like minded individual.

    Other 'doubling' (if you are interested) may be die erosion, Longacre Doubling, or re-punching of the date or devices.

    If there is interest I will continue this discussion.

    Thank you.
    ;)


    Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/t58425/#ixzz0hY6iLqAx
     
  18. justafarmer

    justafarmer Senior Member

    Let’s look at the roulette table again.
    The color green is rarer than the color black and color red.
    0 and 00, which are the only two numbers colored green, are no more rare than any of the numbers colored red or colored balck.

    Doubled working dies are rarer than working dies that are not doubled.
    A specific doubled working die is no more rare than any other specific working die.
    Given a normal production life of a working die a coin produced by a specific working die is no more rare than a coin produced by any other working die including any other doubled working die.

    1,000,000 of something is no more rare than 1,000,000 of something else.

    The 1,000,000 coins struck by working die 1980P-1DO-001 than the 1,000,000 coins struck by working die 1980P-1??-???? and no more rare than the 1,000,000 coins struck by working die 1960P-1DO-001.
     
  19. mikediamond

    mikediamond Coin Collector

    As I mentioned earlier, not all "experts" regard machine doubling as "damage" or as worthless. Count me as a dissenter. Severe cases of machine doubling can bring prices that exceed $80.

     
  20. jallengomez

    jallengomez Cessna 152 Jockey

    Comparing individual dies yes. However, we are comparing one working die which was doubled to all of the other working dies which were not doubled. We're comparing the odds of hitting green versus any other color on the wheel.
     
  21. jallengomez

    jallengomez Cessna 152 Jockey

    Count me as a dissenter also. To me it's akin to die cracks and chips. As a category, they're very plentiful, but when extreme they command premiums.
     
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