Frustrating Nuclear Bids in Auctions

I am not certain. I think if you bid what you think the coin might be worth and get it you should be doing fine. True there are rather more insane prices being paid for coin than what appears to be the norm, however there are coins that can be purchased for something approaching what it had sold for a number of years ago. For your consideration I offer this coin purchased at the New York Sale last January.
Augustus Ar Tetradrachm Antioch Obv. Head right laureate. Rv Tyche of Antioch seated right with River god swimming before her RPC 4155 Prieur 54 15.11 grms 26 mm Photo by W. Hansen According to AC Search I paid $1050 plus all the fees for this coin. However in 2007 this coin sold for $975 (no fees). This would indicate that the seller would have made no more than $75 after holding on to if for about 14 years. True I had to pay at least another $210 for the auction fees, however I thought that the price was reasonable. It is true that I was involved in some serious skirmishes in both the New York Sale as well as the Triton XXV. I was outbid many times and on some of the coins I bid on I was bidding "stupid". However I won five coins in total. Look at the four coins that I can verify from previous auction records I can say that in all four cases I did not pay that much more for the coin than it sold for previously. In fact one coin had a $685 ticket from the late 1990's and I won the coin for $700 (again ++)

 

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Do you know for a fact that the coin actually sold for $685 back then? If not, the fact that that price was written or printed on an old ticket doesn't mean that anyone ever really paid that amount. Dealers often put prices on tickets that are much higher than they ever expect to get.

 

That I cannot say for certain. However I would suspect that if the coin was priced at $685 I would expect it to be sold at a coin show for something in the $620 to $650 range. That is of course if the coin has been sitting around for any length of time. However the coin was sold for 600 Swiss Francs plus a 15 % commission in a Swiss Auction in April 1995. At the time according to my on line sources the CHF was about 1.15 to the USD.
Severus Alexander Ae Sestertius 230 AD 11th emission Obv Head right laureate Rv Justitia seated left RIC 563 22.42 grms 28 mm Photo by W. Hansen PS At the time I posted my first answer on this thread I did not know the price realized of this coin in 1995

 

In the very same auction a mass coinage Athenian tet sold for 5500$. The consignor who is most probably the auctioneer himself got it 1700 chf from the Leu esale of last December. Even Texas hold'em is more predictable than coin auctions and their clients

 

Exceptional hardi d'argent, but too expensive for me too.

Sometimes someone else just really wants it. At least this is not a rare coin. You'll find another.

 

Here's a similar example of prices not going up much.

I paid 500 CHF at the last Leu auction. It previously sold for 480 CHF in October 2020 at Nomos. If you factor in the auction fees, the seller actually lost money on this coin of Zialias.




Here's a common, but similar example. I paid $950 for this tet at CNG, but it was previously sold for $2500 by CNG in 2004. This, of course, is due to the tremendous hoards found since then. One could even argue that I paid too much.

ATTICA, Athens​

AR Tetradrachm 22.5mm, 17.18g, 1h
Circa 454-404 BCE
Kroll 8; HGC 4, 1597
Ex CNG inventory June 2004
Ex CNG January 2021​

 

I'm sure there's a name for this phenomenon, but I always notice that prices are astronomical for any piece that I want, until I bite the bullet and just go for it, then prices crash back down like magic. I've had some meager auction winnings, but I think the best thing for now is to switch from acquisition to study and wait for this all to blow over.

Thankfully, I have a nice big backlog to tide me over for at least a couple years

 

I usually find that anything that interests me has auction bids that go to the moon. The stuff I don't want just sits. I've thought that perhaps if you consign something to auction house, you should hire me to take an interest in it. That will increase the bidding exponentially.

 

I did the easy/healthy thing and gave up. Prices outgrew my change in wages from college to engineer. I can’t afford to collect the way I want to.

It’s stupid to throw money at something that doesn’t make me happy anymore. I’m just hoping for a burst in the bubble that makes things affordable again.

 

I think 'nuclear bidding' is a fitting description. It reminds me of the Cold War adage of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Basically, that's what bidding in auctions amounts to these days, Mutually Assured Bankruptcy (MAB).
Not surprisingly, so far I've only bought one coin this year...

Fortunately, there's no noticible radiation fall-out in the antiquities market (yet), at least not at the level where I feel comfortable. So, I've taken (a hopefully temporary) refuge there.

For the price of a halfway decent common denarius...