Greatest threat to our hobby......

Are you guys/ gals as frustrated as I am about recent coin trends? Its enough to make one weep.
Auctions are breaking one record after another with insane hammer prices. Recently a "common" Mughal Empire/ AV Mohur AH 1037 (1630) Surat Mint/ Akola Hoard (7000 recovered) from Shah Jahan I went for 8300 UK Pounds ($14000 Can.) I bought a MS-66 ex. in 1990 for $240 Can. Another, a AV Dukat 1633 K-B Kremnitz Mint/ HRE Ferdinand II/ Hungary in FDC sold for 24K Euros last year, I won a better quality coin from Polish Auction, three years prior for 3200 Euros. If this keeps going we will all be priced out/ except for the very rich crowd Maybe the tensions in the Ukraine will cool the market.

 

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You are posting about trends in the coin market. The key is "time." Yesterday, we were talking about being able to buy $20 Liberty gold coins for $60!

As you have posted, price increases can happen in a short time. I'd be thankful you got your coins before the price increase. BTW, down the road you may wish you had bought more of them - even at their current price.

 

I would think that increasing hammer prices for high-end quality pieces would help drive interest (by drawing attention to the hobby, assuming notices of the sales find a way through the constant barrage of stories vying for attention.) Sure, it will end up pricing people who can't afford to "play with the big boys" out of top-end items...but isn't that kinda always how it is? The hobby of kings?

I would say something like "rampant counterfeiting" or "elimination of physical money" or even "general loss of disposable income" would be more of a threat.

If you want to talk about price increases or price gouging being a detriment to regular hobbyists/collectors, look no further than the Mint. I can see paying premium prices for actual premium pieces (competition for an established commodity) but paying premium prices for a regularly manufactured rarity? At that point you're alienating your baseline group of collectors in favor of flippers and places like Littleton/HSN. JMHO, for what it's worth.

Fair disclosure: I purchased the max of the 2021 Peace Dollars because my intention was to keep ONE for my collection and try to sell the rest off at a reasonable price to make mine as cheap as possible. So, technically, I was a flipper for that item. I made no attempt to purchase any of the 2022 Morgans because I just don't want/need one for myself.

 

I can remember a couple years back at the buying frenzy at a Vegas coin show for the GOLD Kennedy half. It was literally crazy. 1/3rd of the people in line really wanted 1 for themselves. The other 2/3rds where mainly there to flip the coins for a profit. The ones that did flip their coins made a big profit. I can still remember kids in neon green T-shirts asking everyone in the crowd if they would sell their coins to a certain dealer waiting to buy all of them.

 

Agreed. And also you get to be smugly prescient in your very early appreciation of this fine part of the hobby...and your giant pile of current 'value'.

 

I agree. I am thankful for what I have bought over the years. I always look back wishing I bought more 5 years, 10 years, 20 years ago. OTOH I am still in full hoarder mode and these prices are crimping my hoarding. Heaven forbid, I might be forced to actually look at coins in my SDB to see what I own. I much prefer buying more, and worrying about what I own when I am retired.

 

I am glad that I added 600AV coins to my collection in past decade. The 400 or so coins I bought from 1985-2012 were steals at todays prices. I plan to keep adding more in next 30 years.

 

Although my collection is at a much lower level I have been pretty much priced out - sixpences just a few years ago that used to be £80-100 are now £400-1000+ Napoleonic medals are the same and prices for high grade Napoleonic coins are just silly and as a result I haven't bought one for a couple of years now.

I spend more time doing research now and looking for interesting, usually more modern items - current world banknotes are only a few pounds each in UNC and are more colourful than coins

 

Who knows?

We might be getting ready for a replay of the 1979-80 coin market. Prices went through the roof a "regular hobbyists" were priced out of the market. You heard crazy talk from young dealers, who had never been though a frenzy before, that they were buying "rips" for "only" three or four times Grey Sheet bid.

As with all such frenzies, the marry-go-round finally slowed down to a craw and the the market made a huge correction. If people had borrowed money to get into the business they were wiped out because the coins they had were worth a fraction of what they had paid.

The ingredients are there. What seems to be impending hyperinflation, a determination to get away from cash and into “things” because cash is worth less every day and some less that rational people doing the buying.

I wish I knew what to do other than sit on a lot of what I have. Panic selling is never a good move with stocks and bonds. As for the coins, tokens, medals and gold I suppose I’ll keep most of it. Like a dumb collector, I enjoy it too much. On the other side, I might end up pulling in my horns so far as buying goes. Forty years ago I built a set of Two Cent Pieces in EF to satisfy my collecting tooth. That set is not as easy to find as it might sound.

 

I wouldn't worry John, it means the value of your collection is going through the roof. It might make further acquisitions more difficult or expensive but I don't see you being the loser here.

 

Markets go up and markets go down. As far as threats to our hobby are concerned, I'm more worried about counterfeiting.

 

I agree, my biggest fear for our hobby is also all the fake coins being sold. I've noticed that coins are selling for higher prices and that has slowed down my buying but it's good for sellers

 

Counterfeiting/ esp. from China is worrying/ used to be Lebanon. But, I only buy my coins thru reliable auction houses like Künker/ Heritage/ CNG/ Gadboury etc./ they are good at eliminating fakes.
Ups and downs.....in my years of collecting/ never seen "downs" just "ups". I have kept my auction catalogues/ prices realized since 1990, so can prove that fact. There was a "correction" in US market/ since their Redbook prices where way to high in 2000.
There have been instances, where a coin was bid up to insane levels by two bidders with more $ then brains/ then appears a year later/ hammer price cut in half. But in 99 percent of hammer results/ prices keep rising. Past two years have seen increases in 25 percent or more range.
The high quality material is in hottest demand/ only makes sense/ most want perfect coins.

 

The biggest threat to our hobby are the numbskulls on eBay who label a 1971 two pence piece as ultra rare and ask £5,000 for it.

 

Actually, it's the people that buy those coins that encourage this behavior...

 

I agree with Maxfli, counterfeiting is beyond out of control. I just saw a video about websites selling fake slabs complete with hologram sticker to match. I'm not one to tell at the kids keep of my lawn but there's a point that's too much. I'm looking to report them to the grader ( one of the top 3 top grading companies) as soon as I can find the company name selling the fake slabs, if I even can. I just see it as intentionally harming someone and it's foul. Go to work and be productive if one can put that much effort into slabbing/posting/selling fakes, go put your energy into something productive.

 

I tend to have bought often lower grade coinage and the prices haven't gone up nearly as much recently. I must admit that I don't follow Mughal Empire stuff nor ducats from the Holy Roman Empire. I only have that one 1486 taler from the HRE

I think it's only the stuff in ms-66 to ms-70, that you collect, that has gone up that much. Also possibly stay away from the Mughal Empire if you can...

Two weeks ago just got a nice Venezuelan 100 Bolivars NGC-61 for a reasonable price. I've been looking for one of these (100 Bolivars, issued 1886, - 1889) for 10 years in unc. Basically a crown-sized or doubloon-sized gold coin. Not rare but difficult to find in unc as it appears that all Venezuelan stuff is pretty banged up.


Venezuela, 100 Bolivars, 1886
dealer's photo

I also think the runup is temporary and things should settle back down.

 

The price increases are of course annoying, but thankfully the coins I am interested in are still in my price range (except maybe one coin, whose market value I have no idea about, since I have never seen it for sale anywhere!) and as others have already mentioned, counterfeiting is an even more annoying occurrence, I severely dislike the fact that when I am browsing expensive coins I have to think about whether or not they are fake.

 

Could you please post a picture of that Mohur?

 

I just have this older foto of one side.