Market trends past 70 years

Since I have lots of spare time, I have been looking thru my past 15 years of UK "Coin News". They have a section devoted to auctions/ prices realized in each monthly edition. Seems right from my first issue 2008/ the commentary has been the same. With headlines such as, "market for rare coins is hot" "new records falling" "How long will this bull market continue". My feeling is, when someone in 2037 looks back at previous 15 years, it will be the same scenario. Its scary to think what our collections are worth.....
John

 

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John, Thanks for posting this timely info . I hope all the chumps predicting the "market bubble" for ancient coins will pop soon read this .

 

This coin was sold by Stack’s in NYC on October 20, 1960 for $45. Thirty years later it changed hands for $800. I wonder what price it would command today?

“Buy land; they don’t make any more,” is investment advice attributed to Mark Twain.

 

While I agree that prices have been increasing at the high end, I'm not as convinced the ancient coin market in general is going crazy. I've purchased several coins for roughly what someone else paid for them ~20 years ago.

Even at the very high end, I wonder whether too much attention is being paid to statistical outliers and not to the market in general. Several collectors with deeper pockets than I have related stories here of buying coins for far less than they sold for decades ago.

My suspicion is ancient coin prices rise and fall as both new hoards are found and as public opinion changes. For example, the trend right now is for coins in the best condition possible. Even common coins in mint state are receiving strong bids. Some time ago, though, rarer coins were the rage.

 

I stipulate that since covid the market has been hot and in many cases ridiculously hot. However, until 2020 the market was not "hot." The evidence cited that the market was hot was simply the inevitable outliers in any large market. Coin magazines have incentives to tell their readers that the market is going up (and they should contact their advertisers right away!). With many auctions and thousands of transactions it is always possible to find something that can be hyped as hot.

(On the other hand, if I wanted to show the market has crashed, I could show you the prices realized at the 2012 "Prospero" auction of Greek coins. They were ridiculously high. There is a reason for that and if you don't know it, that might seem like good evidence for prices going down.)

It is prices realized across the board that are a better indicator of the market. I have 80 linear feet of old ancient-coin auction sale catalogs that I peruse occasionally. There are many good coins offered in the 1980s and 1990s that did not cost more (in nominal dollars, not counting inflation) in 2010-2018. I have many Swiss catalogs (Switzerland is home to major firms) in which buying in Swiss Francs in the 1980s or 1990s or 2000s would have caused you to lose money in dollars because the Swiss Franc has gone up more than the coins.

Before covid I wrote a page on "Coins as an investment"
http://augustuscoins.com/ed/numis/investment.html
It explains how to make any type of investment is made to look better than it is. You might find it enlightening.

Again, I admit the market is hot right now. A very sophisticated collecting friend who spends big money talks to me about coins he was bidding or wanted to bid on that went for "stupid" prices. What will happen to prices when (if) covid is over remains to be seen. But, markets can go down. The ancient coin market ran up in 1979 when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. I panicked and bought an expensive (for me) coin before it was out of reach. In 2018 it was selling for (in nominal dollars) just about, or maybe somewhat less than, I paid for it. That's a pretty big loss when inflation is factored in.

If I didn't care about my coins I would sell them now. The ancient-coin market is hot. Maybe stupidly hot.

 

I started collecting in 1948 at the age of 5. All we knew about coins is what we found in our pocket. We knew a coin was rare or scarce because we couldn't find one in change. There were no regular publications available to the general public (young or casual) collectors. We saw ads in the back of some newspapers put up by the mail-in companies - send an SASE for a list.

I don't think it is possible or appropriate to consider any trend before the internet came about. There are collectors and investors in the game today that wouldn't have known about auction houses in 1950 - 1980.

It's a whole different game since the internet and outlets like eBay.

 

I think you nailed it. Back before the internet, I used to get auction catalogues from NFA/ TkalecAG/ Stack's. Before that I did not even know that auctions existed/ stupidly I bought into FM proof sets/ which I still have and enjoy looking at. Only after I bought a Coin World magazine and saw Auction ads, that prompted me to write them, asking for sample auction catalogues.The three above mentioned did/ after that I was hooked on classic gold coinage. Out of the blue/ others began sending me their catalogues. By 2005/ I learned to use the internet/ sixbid site. It was like the "gates of heaven" had opened/ rest is history. So, in 2022/ firms like Kunker/ Heritage/ CNG/ Roma can open up this wonderfull hobby to billions of potential bidders all across the globe. Imagine if the internet had been around in 1954/ what the Farouk Sale would have realized in 1954 $$$. Hopefully, the fees charged by firms (20%+) won't go higher, that could be a mild deterrant.

 

@panzerman Is your collection worth 2+ million dollars ? What is the total weight of your gold coins ? Not that you would sell them as gold bullion.

 

I haven't got the foggiest idea I have never thought about it/ since I never collected for the investment potential. But, I do a lot of research into past auctions/ reference books/ have data list for all of my coll. (990AV/ 125AR) it would add up! Mostly all of them are worth 3-20X gold value.
For example that tiny AV Quarter Stater/ Philip II/ Macedon (Heritage Sale) sold for 16.8K (MS 5/5 3/5 Scuffs) I got a true MS 5/5 5/5 ex/ NY Sale for 1/5 that price in 2018.
But back to your original question/ north of that amt. Add on more goodies this year!
John

 

Wow. I collect for fun and learning. My collection is probably worth in the $16,000 range (over a 21 year period) but it is priceless to me.

 

..O, prices are higher now than they were....simple inflation and more people collecting. the internet made it possible for people who, like me, would probably never have started collecting ancients(coins i couldn't get out of change at the store)..but i see it as no loss and a tribute to our hobby...i guess id say collecting's like rock & rollers in bands...always up, always down going round & round & round (courtesy Night Ranger, song Goodbye)

 

I have no real clear idea of what my 70 plus years of coins is worth. When you think about how many were picked up for face or traded for, I couldn't guess. But it is a Not For Profit hobby as I see it.

 

These quotes makes you wonder if they might have some interest in exaggerating the market of ancient coins. All it takes is a virus and rich folks with additional free time to make the slogans finally come true ...

 

They weren't referring to "Ancients" in particular/ but to the general coin marketplace. Being a UK based magazine they devote a lot of attention to English/ British/ Scottish coinage. Since TPG came into vogue/ high grade coins were always in demand/ fetched highest prices. With slabbing/ the MS-67/68 coins go for 10X more then a MS-62/63. Back in the 80s/ a FDC/MS coin would fetch 2x a similar example in "EF". Today that FDC/MS coin would be GEM MS/ while the "EF" would be a MS price difference 10 fold.

 

From my experience, especially with "unimproved land", in the long run the tax regulator and local government determine what you own/usage.

 

My neighbor told his son to get a lot while he was young. He bought the empty lot across the street.

 

Sold our unimproved land for precisely that reason. Not sure what property taxes were like back in Twain’s day, but i suspect both taxes and inflation were substantially lower.

Unlike land, thus far the government has not devised a scheme to tax the unrealized gains on collectibles. Some of which “gain” is an illusion cast by inflation. E.g., the Solidus I posted above seems cheap at $45, but in 1960 forty-five US dollars would buy 1.28 Troy ounces of gold. Today that much gold would be in excess of $2300, a not unreasonable price for a gold Solidus of Constantius II today. So, we could say that the price of the Solidus in gold is essentially unchanged. But the price in dollars is up fifty fold. Actual increase in wealth? Zero.

The financial benefit of collecting, in my view, proceeds from being an very enjoyable and intellectually stimulating hobby which doubles as an illiquid sort of savings account, moreover a savings account which will probably keep pace with inflation at worst. Numismatists with a good eye and specialized knowledge may do even better.

 

I got an email from CNG saying that their recent auction netted $12.5 million or something like that, far above what they had prognosticated. We're starting to see a significant stock market correction right now in both Nasdaq and S&P indexes. My holdings have dropped about 15% in value in the past three weeks. It reminds me of two major corrections, the stock market bubble that burst in 2001 (taking 5 years to recover), and then the crisis of 2009-2010 which reduced more wealth and many folks, holding explosive mortgages, lost their homes.

Bitcoin has dropped. So, if market indices are any indication, AC's could also be in for a correction, but on the other hand investors/newbies could continue to plow into the auction field in search for alternative assets likely to hold value. The trend toward share based art funds (which let little guys invest in Picassos and so forth) may come over into the coin field. It will be very interesting to see how things pan out.

 

I absolutely agree! I collect for the fun of it. I collect what I like, sometimes what I need toward completing a particular collection (which is still in the realm of what I like). But, to this point, I have never been concerned as to whether I could "get my money back" from a coin I've collected. It's fun. I get enjoyment out of my collection. It's a hobby, doing something I really enjoy, and thanks to fellow CTers, I've learned a tremendous amount about my hobby. And, even more, I've made friends, all over the world, and opened new interests to me that I previously knew nothing about. Now, my hobby is not limited to just my personal collection. I am able to "see through the eyes" of other members of CT, and to tap into a wealth of experience and knowledge on this forum. Thank you, every one of you for sharing your amazing collections and wisdom. Becoming a member of CT was truly a blessing, far exceeding my expectations!

 

I too collect for the fun of it and don't get me wrong during the last Triton Auction I was responsible for my share of some of the insane bids in that auction. Some of the Jay Galst coins got to where they ultimately hammered for because I was the underbidder. OOpps I did lose on 5 so I can be just as nuts as the next guy. However in the same auction I di purchase two coins which if their previous history is any indication, really did poorly. The first is this coin Plotina Denarius RIC 730 I paid $4000 US plus the juice In 2011 this coin sold for 6000 Euro and I assume plus the juice.
Then we come to this guy. Severus Alexander Sestertius RIC 563 Paid $700 plus the juice. A ticket from Freeman & Sear A firm which shut its doors sometime around 8 years ago was selling this coin at $695. I am assuming that this ticket was produced around the year 2000. As similar though in some ways slightly better coin sold at almost $1400 US plus only a few months before.
So what am I saying? Well simply put not all coins are achieving really stupid prices. True in some areas high end Greek, Roman Republican, Roman gold, the prices can be very strong. Invariably there are the 'flyers" coins that get prices that defy all reason. However this is nothing new. I remember a big spike in prices sometime around 1973 and another one about 4 years later. I also remember a collapse of prices back in the late 1990's when eBay hit the internet. In the past when confronted with a sudden spike in prices, I usually was able to find an area in my collection that was by in large unaffected and concentrated on buying coins there. Thus some years after I started collecting coins of the Roman Republic I noticed that the basic price of a Republican denarius had doubled. I stopped buying and started looking at Greek coins. That is until they started to jump. Then it was Roman Imperial and Colonial and eventually back to Republican. I always tried to stay away from the current fad. Mind you it is tougher to do now a days.