I don't get modern pricing.

I have a 1958 proof set that just looks a little better than the typical proof set. The Half is showing frosting in the hair, but maybe not enough for cameo. The nickel is showing a light brown goldish even toning. The cent looks like it was just minted.

But looking up individual prices has me scratching my head.

This is a $12,000 coin in PR68 Red Deep Cameo.
This is a $63 PF68 RED:


In case you're wondering, another PF68 Red Deep Cameo sold for $150.

And I can't see any difference at all after allowing for the amount of light reflected from the background when the item was photographed.

I'd show mine, but I can't photograph it through the mint packaging.

 

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I don't like either one of them.

 

Me either. But then I don't get $10k bottles of wine or $100k splashes of abstract art. Just part of the unwashed rabble, I guess.

Happy New Year, y'all!

 

I'm not familiar with pricing on pennies, regular business strikes or proofs. Can you give more info ?

I am well-aware of "kinks" in the pricing for Saints and Morgans where the price goes exponential as you have a huge falloff in the availability, often at the MS67 level. What's the story with 1958 pennies ?

 

I'm just interested because I have a Proof set in by birth year. I understand premiums for RED and Cameo in MS, but these are all PF68 and they should all be RED and I can't see what they are calling Cameo on any of them.

 

DCAMs are exceedingly rare. Theres 1 69 DCAM and 7 68 DCAM (likely some duplicates trying for 69) in the PCGS pop. 68s in general are fairly rare for that date as well

https://www.pcgs.com/pop/detail/lincoln-cent-wheat-reverse-1909-1958/46?ccid=0&t=3&p=PR

 

Maybe the person paying that much for a 68 DCAM thinks that cracking it out and resubmitting it may get it a 69 DCAM. I'm not sure that even if they were successful, the now 2 69 DCAM pop would demand that, or a higher, price.

 

It would hurt the value of the only 69 but it would still be a significantly higher price than the 68s.

 

It was June 2017 at Long Beach from Heritage and was a pop 7/1. It was also an outlier as they usually sell for between 6k and 7k as the two since then have, but they dont come up for sale often. It was the second one sold that year which is also unusual so someone may have just decided they werent going to miss out again, or that it was the nicest one of the 68s or some combination of both

Actually which TPG it is can make a massive difference in prices.

 

I would consider 4 or 5 figures massive which has been shown time and again on high value coins.

You would absolutely see a massive difference for the coin in question if you put that into half of the 4 holders, thats probably not even a 4 figure coin in two of them. Even an NGC holder costs you several thousand

https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/details/1958-pr/93383

September 2021 Legend auctions PCGS 68 DCAM $6463 no special toning

December 2020 Heritage NGC 68 UCAM (same thing) $1080

November 2019 PCGS 68 DCAM Stacks $4080

There is a significant difference with holders on high value coins and you see that consistently especially on moderns and more modern coins.

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/961216/1958-Lincoln-Cent-NGC-Proof-69-UC

March 2021 NGC 69 UC $5184.

NGC 69 UC sell for the same price as PCGS 68 DCAM has historically and actually less than the more recent PCGS 68 DCAM sales.

But yes it won't make much of a difference on a 100 dollar coin, it will on a 1k+ coin though or for top pops when they're scare

 

Maybe I'll bring it to the Houston Money Show an let some experts see it in hand. But it has to stay in the mint package for now.

 

Many of these super high prices on high grade modern coins are driven by registry collectors, with more money than brains, who have gone insane.

Years ago, a 1963 cent in PCGS PR-70 DECAM was offered in a Heritage Auction. It was bid up to over $40,000. Unfortunately the coin had started to tone and had black spots that had, more than likely, developed while it was in the holder. This was obvious in the auction listing and the photos of the coin in COINage magazine. Outside of the holder, it was worth about $10. There were comments about all over the PCGS blog. It still seemed to sell for the big price.

The next it was in the Heritage auction again. The same bid levels appeared again. Finally PCGS bought the coin off the market to save themselves from the embarrassment.

These high grade moderns are a high risk gamble in my opinion. You might get lucky and sell one, but I wouldn’t touch them.

 

PCGS vs. NGC: Was going to create another thread, but figured it could go here.

I was looking through some old Greysheet monthlies, and I looked at the Bluesheet pricing tables. I know PCGS trades at a premium, and glancing at the Saint-Gaudens boxes and other coins, I could see it ranging from 10-30% depending on the year, mint mark, condition, etc. As expected....

But I glanced at the 1927 Saint...a very common coin....and looked at the MS-67 pricing (condition rarity but not super-rare for sure except compared to other commons like the 1924 or 1908 NM).

Anyway, I saw $5,500 for the NGC pricing and $15,000 for the PCGS price. I didn't see that astronomical premium replicated anywhere else for any other coin year or mint mark or condition for the Saints (still looking as I type).

It's not a typo...I checked the pricing in an issue a few months earlier and while both prices moved, the monstrous PCGS premium remained for the 1927 in MS-67 condition.

Anybody know why such a pricing anomaly could persist for a fairly liquid coin/year/condition ?

 

The last PCGS one sold for 30k, the last two NGC were under 11k. The PCGS was CAC so that helped, but if you go back to 2018 before the market took off the PCGS ones were between 15-20k which is still significantly more despite the NGC ones being sold during a stronger market.

There's nothing common about 67s for that date and they dont come up for sale often. There's only 30 in PCGS with 3 67+ and 1 68 and theres really less than that as there's definitely doubles. NGC has more than double the number of 67s despite those coins being more likely to be submitted to PCGS

Large PCGS premiums are very common when talking about top pop coins and expensive coins like that

 

Thanks BB21....the CDN Monthlies were from late-2018 if that helps.

Why wouldn't you see the same discrepancy in the MS-67 range for other Saints that are considered "common" if not in the 67 range, i.e., 1924, 1923-D, 1908 NM, 1928, etc. ??

I know a premium for PCGS will expand as you go up in grade....but 200% at the 67-and-above level with a PCGS pop of 36; 62 for NGC; and Roger Burdette's Saints book estimate of 60 (eliminates double-counting) ?

I thought my census numbers above were accurate, I'll double check.

But with both our numbers, for a coin that isn't that super-rare....why such a big premium ? It appears to be confined to the 1927....I'm not seeing it for other "common" Saints or for more rare/scarce Saints even in the 67 grade !!??

But with dozens available there ? If there were only 1 or 2, I could see it.

Just seems to be unique to the 1927 Saint. I'm going to look at the CDN grids a bit more and see if I see anything else among Saints, Liberty's, or non-gold coins for a coin/year/condition that is rare but not ultra- or super-rare.

 

All of this proves that third party grading/pricing has solved the "grading problem" once and for all, just like we were promised back in 1986.

It's a game, and too many people buy into it as if it were gospel.

 

You do see the same in the sales prices. Usually not so much with CAC as there's so few of the CAC ones you can't really afford to pass those up if thats what you want.

If there were only 1 or 2 it would be a 6 figure coin.

 

WOW! That's a lot of entries for 2 cents. Best of luck.