Thoughts on value trends in US coins

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Mark Metzger, Sep 22, 2021.

  1. KeyHunter

    KeyHunter Supporter! Supporter

    Oh don't bring up value of common, generic Morgan Dollars per a recent post...got a bunch of people's panties in a bunch that can't handle the truth. ;)
     
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  3. gronnh20

    gronnh20 Well-Known Member

    I posted in that thread about the common heavily circulated Morgan and Peace dollars I sold on eBay. I had more raw Morgan and Peace dollars that were AU with plenty of luster. The results were about the same. Only a few dollars more for better grades. I am about to sell all the graded common date/mint Morgan and Peace dollars I have that are not MS65 or better. Selling the raw coins opened my eyes.
     
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  4. KeyHunter

    KeyHunter Supporter! Supporter

    Yes...that is for most COMMON (million+ mintage's) dates. AU can be acquired for just a small amount over raw lower common grades. Even aftr the Pittman Act there were STILL gazillion common date dollars in existence. Dealer wholesale and resale, that's the way it is...for THIS segment of the series. What is sold on *bay is not an indication of total availability or customer demand. I watch umpteen Keys te MOST desired coins) that just sit and sit for multiple reasons and not just because of condition
     
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  5. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Today's financial markets are the fairest and most transparent in our nation's history.

    The small investor has never had it so good. The advantages over The Big Boys are numerous. Transaction costs compared to when I started in the 1980's are a fraction, let alone 15-20 years earlier in the 1960's.
     
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  6. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The question is how much of the Covid-19 buying is "sticky" and will transate into PT and FT collectors.
     
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    If you had phrased that just "a little" differently, like this -

    - that's always the question market watchers ask. They wanna know what the long term trend is going to be.

    I'm suggesting leaving the pandemic out of it because I don't really believe it had much of anything to with anything. I think the market's increases over the past 2 years, or what will be 2 years come Jan, is due to a mix much more basic reasons. Put in simplest terms - the market finally found its bottom in Jan of 2020. Bear markets and bull markets both they always shift, sooner or later they always reverse direction - for a time. What you, and everybody else wants know is - when that time is going to be.

    Well, nobody really knows, nobody can or ever will know with any degree of certainty. Me, I look back at history because that's typically where the answers lie. And history tells us that bull markets most often last from 3-5 years, and bear markets most often last from 5-8 years.
     
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  8. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer A Caretaker, can't take it with me

    I disagree with this assessment completely. Although the economy came to a screeching halt, not everyone lost their jobs or income. Many people were put on furlough and actually received more money in unemployment and the enhanced unemployment and stimulus than if they went to work. Many others continued to receive normal paychecks with the added benefit of working from home.

    The difference was there was virtually nowhere to spend that money. Restaurants, movie theaters, hotels, cruise ships, airlines, car rentals, catering halls, concerts, construction, hair salons, spa services, and so much more all became off limits.

    With all that extra money in people's pockets they were clamoring to do something, anything, that could provide them with at least some modicum of enjoyment during a very dark period. Buying online became an outlet for this satisfaction. Just like the meteoric rise in home improvement. No one could travel for vacation so they spent untold amounts on home improvements.

    IMO the pandemic was the number one factor in fueling this numismatic surge. How long it continues is the million dollar question.
     
  9. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    It absolutely had a massive impact on the market. It transformed it completely turning it much more online which greatly increased the competition for things and being stuck at home people had a lot more time to be looking for stuff.

    Most importantly though, those that had jobs had WAY more money than before as they werent going out to eat, driving a lot less (gas was way cheaper anyways), not taking vacations, not going to bars etc so they had much more disposable income that would have otherwise been going elsewhere.

    There was without question a strong rise in prices during lockdowns that really have continued
     
  10. GoldBug999

    GoldBug999 Well-Known Member

    As of the last few months, every gold coin I have on my want list has gone up in price. I've bid at several auctions, with many coins selling for hundreds or thousands of dollars more than my best bid. And several of my bids were at or above previous auction results and the PCGS price guide (which in the recent past overstated the value of many coins).
     
  11. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    My reasoning for my thinking is simple, the turnaround in the market started at least 3-4 months before the pandemic really started to affect much of anything. And once it got started it just kept going. And - because the very same thing has happened many, many times - when there was no pandemic. Bull markets and bear markets come and go like the wind - and they always have. And nobody ever knows why with any degree of certainty.

    And I'm not saying the pandemic didn't have any effect at all, I'm sure it did for some people. I just don't believe that it was the reason for very many people. Could I be wrong ? Sure, but anybody who thinks differently could be wrong just as easily as I could be.
     
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  12. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Well-Known Member

    CC for me but have to bid high to get them.
     
  13. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Not really to be honest. Collectables of all types had a big noticeable (often major) spike during that time frame, it's really impossible to to deny there wasnt a major effect from people having nothing else to do and no where else to spend their money. You could see it in everything from cards, to coins, to gaming where you still cant find the new gaming consoles that are a year old now, and so on
     
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  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    I should know better :rolleyes: - but ......

    So, your thinking is then then that if the pandemic had never started that the coin market would have continued on its downward trend ? And that even though unemployment spiked to almost unheard of levels and millions of people lost their jobs, and their incomes, and many, many business owners also suffered a loss of income, somehow coin collectors were not among all these millions of people and thus not affected and coin collectors still had extra income to make the coin market take off like a scalded cat - and continue upwards - during the pandemic. That's your thinking ?

    Well, OK, everybody's entitled to their opinion. But I mean, all of that coupled with what I said above, it just doesn't doesn't make a whole of sense to me that the pandemic is primarily responsible for the coin market's reversal.
     
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  15. Jim Dale

    Jim Dale Well-Known Member

    I haven't read all of the entries, but I do want to say something that may have already been said.
    In order to stay open, businesses like McDonalds and other restaurants and businesses are paying premiums for people to come to work. We went to one restaurant a few days ago and a former student of my wife's, told her that they are paying $30 and hour to work for them. That's $1,200 a week. They are buying Mustangs and other new cars, and many of the stores are happy that they are purchasing from them. It's got to end sometime in the real world. I'm retired and only get about $400 a week. I'm hoping that the balloon will burst and minimum wage drops to a reasonable amount. I'm driving a 7 year old truck.
     
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  16. longshot

    longshot Enthusiast Supporter

    I'm self-employed, my business cycles. I know how "rich" I feel affects my coin buying.
    Better coins more often in the good times, fewer and lower value coins to scratch my itch in the tighter times.
    What's around the corner? Wish I knew.
     
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  17. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    No, nice things had been increasing for several years it was just common date common grade stuff on the downturn. But there's no denying that the pandemic really spiked it and brought a lot of new people into the hobby and collecting of all sorts
     
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  18. KBBPLL

    KBBPLL Well-Known Member

    It doesn't have to be one thing and not another thing. Real estate has also gone nuts during the same approximate time period, even though it was steadily upward starting around 2012 (in my area anyway). Real estate commentary I've seen also points the finger at COVID, but as I said earlier, if you're conservative with money and looking for a secure place for it, bank rates are in the toilet so you might as well buy tangible stuff.
     
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  19. KeyHunter

    KeyHunter Supporter! Supporter

    Yes, those low fees starting in the 80's are thanks to John Bogle and his Index investing and starting operations like Vanguard. I have his books and follow that but unfortunately we never had enough $ for outside investing having to put 2 kids through private school and us working 2 jobs each (I recently retired with a very small govt pension). So you are right...we are awash in financial information through various media these days compared to 60's-70's. I'm hoping 2022 to start a few ETFs and watch for the soon next big Wall St. 'correction" to jump in with some everyman-products. I have my precious metals bases covered very well.
     
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  20. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Forget about the impact on prices....my Big Thing is....how many who DISCOVERED online coin and currency buying stick with it ?

    We saw this with the buying of 2nd-tier Large Denomination Bills and other stuff costing $300 - $1,500. We saw it with baseball cards. People who may have had their jobs or been living off the Covid assistance nonetheless DISCOVERED Ebay, HA, GC, etc.

    Probably sites like CoinTalk, too ! :D
     
  21. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    The waiting list to get baseball cards or collectibles graded is insane. They won't even take your stuff and hold it before grading -- they're not accepting any more deliveries. :eek:
     
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