A friend in another forum asked how often do TPGs certify bad coins? There are several ways to approach an answer to this... One is the path I took that the number is low as a percentage of the total coins certified. Another is to say they are paid professionals and the goal of course is zero- but how many is too many and a problem? 1? 10? 100? How about 70! Some may ask what difference does it make, the TPGs stand behind their decisions with their guarantee- as long as you keep the coin in the original slab. In any case the answer should include some data, and although I don't have the number of coins reviewed/ certified I do have the number of bad coins certified/ "authenticated" I have documented over the past 5 "Dark Side" years. So, I have created a chart of the ones I have recorded with totals for 5 TPGs in order by the total they certified. The 5th is a grouping of a couple of the lesser/ no longer functioning ones.
Very nice Jack. It's interesting that most of the errors by the TPG's leans towards classic coinage. It might lead one to think that there is much yet to be learned in this area by the current and past graders.
Thanks Jack!! Shows how deceptive counterfeits have become and they are getting better. Furthermore, who could have guessed that your research shows that some of these fakes many have entered the market in auctions almost a decade ago where they were seen by many professional dealers. I'll be among the hundreds of professionals who probably would still be calling some counterfeit coins genuine if it were not for you and the "Dark Siders."
Actually, it is very easy to figure out (if you've been paying attention to Jacks posts all over the Internet) but the "who" is not as important as the message. In my experience, over the decades, the counterfeiters realized they would have more luck testing their "work" out at the top two TPGS first. Very often, anything detected by the top two goes to ANACS, SEGS, or ICG to see if it will pass them. That goes for "detail" coins too from honest dealers/collectors. Here is the thing to take away. All the TPGS make mistakes. The experience of the graders and the volume of submissions influences the error rate. Ever since "detail" coins were slabbed, the error rate went up. Thirty-six or twenty-two coins over five years of submissions (possibly thousands of the specific coins in the chart) is not the end of the world considering how good those C'F's are that passed professional dealers and auction houses too! Also note that when one gets passed as OK at a TPGS, they get more of the same fakes sent in until they are finally detected.
Yeah obviously TPG1/2 are the tier-1 and TPG3/4 the tier-2 services. I don’t have the time to go through previous threads, but agree, you’d just need to search for one of the counterfeit half/large cents which only passed at a single TPG to figure it out. E.g. https://www.cointalk.com/threads/pa...on-struck-counterfeit-1803-half-cents.324358/
The dates/coins that show multiple counterfeits, such as 1798 S-158 with 7 counterfeits, are they from multiple counterfeit die pairings or can they all be attributed to a single set of counterfeit dies?
All 9 of the known S-158's are from a single die pairing. The 1806 half cents are also from a single die pairing but there are 2 different "die states"; the 1st ds replicates the source coin exactly, the 2nd they tried to modify one of the major attribution marks but the others remained.
Wasn't important to my message (as @Insider noted), but it can be figured out as you state if that is important to someone. The numbers don't necessarily indicate which TPG is doing the better job but most likely which were the bigger targets initially (again as Insider noted). And there are certainly more out there; I have only included examples I have slabbed images of. I have talked with the top TPGs about details graded coins as one of the biggest opportunities for the counterfeiters as I only have 1 of the 15 examples in my growing collection straight grade (the 1872-S HD). A growing trend I have seen lately are details type genuine coins coming back as "authenticity unverifiable"- maybe a swing as a result of the counterfeits out there...
Very interesting table. Easy for me to figure out who TPG2 is. I know it's not in your "modern" counterfeits category, but the 1896, 1900 and 1902 Micro O Morgan dollars is an interesting story. They were certified for years (PCGS alone authenticated 95 of them). https://www.pcgs.com/news/pcgs-announces-contemporary-counterfeit-status-of-1896-o-1900-o I wonder how many of these got authenticated because a variety or die pair was erroneously published and that's all the TPG looked for? The 1899 25c DDR seems like another example of that.
I congratulate the PCGS experts who provided this information to the public. In actuality, ANACS, NGC, and PCGS all failed to detect these coins. PCI even certified a BU 1896-O "Micro O" over my strong objection it was C/F in the mid-1990s based on the opinion of a Morgan dollar "expert" consultant. That specific coin was as easy to ID as a fake because it was as poorly struck & granular under the scope as the 1896-P fakes detected and published by the ANA's authenticators years before. Furthermore, after I joined NGC, we stopped certifying the "Micro O" fakes of these dates in 2001! The real "story" here is the research done since 2005 by many numismatists on ALL THE OTHER "privately made" (nice term for COUNTERFEIT so dealers and TPGS could buy, sell, and slab them) Morgan dollars that are now known. (30 and IMHO more to be discovered).
I considered those "contemporaries" and another whole category; one from my collection- love the surface description...
The NYT published several accounts of counterfeit dollars near the turn of the century. I don't think these are from that issue. IMO, more than likely made during WWI era to disrupt out currency.
Updated today with a couple of additions in red: Many of these have Coin Week Dark Corner articles written summarizing them. https://coinweek.com/?s=dark+corner Best, Jack.
It would be nice if the TPG,S would do there home work and certify those coins that could only be authenticated after all that what there getting paid to do.
I'm having trouble thinking of who a 5th TPG would be. I can think of ANACS, ICG, NGC and PCGS (not in your number order). Authenticating a fake 1909-S VDB seems pretty lame. Is there a thread / article on that one?
Not sure I understand this. Is there any reason to believe this survey is exhaustive? Seems to me it's a sample, no?
It is only my documented list and certainly NOT exhaustive; I only add ones I have good information on...