Dust clouds, climate change and coins: consiliences of palaeoclimate and economy in the Late Antique

This extensive article reviews how ancient coinage reflects and informs modern scholars about the economic and environmental events that shaped history in the Levant in and around the 6th Century
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The climate factor has become a focus of much historical and archaeological investigation, encouraged recently by improvements in palaeoclimatic techniques and interest in global climate change. This article examines correlations between climate and history in the Byzantine southern Levant (c. 4th–7th centuries AD). A proposed 5th century economic downturn attested to by numismatic trends is shown to coincide with palaeoclimatic evidence for drought. We suggest a climatic ultimate cause for the apparent economic decline. In addition, the relationship between the Dust Veil Index (DVI) and annual precipitation in Jerusalem suggests the likelihood of increased precipitation following the 536 AD volcanic dust veil. This prediction is borne out by high-resolution precipitation reconstructions from Soreq Cave speleothems and by sedimentation records of extreme flash flooding. These finds complement palaeoclimatic reconstructions from Europe showing a drop in precipitation after 536 AD. Drought in Europe and flooding in the Middle East are both expected outcomes of global cooling during volcanic winters, such as those described in historical accounts of the 530s AD

In his book, The Missing Century, Safrai (1998)
argued for a 5th century AD (408–491 AD) decline
in demographic and economic vitality in the southern
Levant, and the eastern Roman Empire generally. This
conclusion was based primarily on quantitative numismatic data, particularly the marked decrease in identified bronze coins from the 5th century (Fig. 2). This trend is corroborated by an independent database compiled by Gitler, in which the number of coin
finds annually is 4.5 for the years 383–408 AD, 0.4
for 408–489 AD, 0.7 in the 6th century and 0.4 in
the 7th century (Gitler and Weisburd 2005; see also
Bijovsky 2000–2002; 2012; Guest 2012).


https://lisa.biu.ac.il/sites/lisa/f...ouds_climate_change_and_coins_levant_2017.pdf

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I have not yet read this article but from my other studies I concur with the thesis that environmental factors were a major reason for both the economic and social dislocation that we see and interpret as the decline of the world of antiquity and its replacement with the one we term as medieval.

 

One has to be very cautious when drawing conclusions from the number of coin finds. In the 5th c. imperial mints produced much less coins than in the 4th c., and these coins were only tiny AE4 or minimi that are very difficult to identify, and their statistics consider only "identified coins of the 5th century". In many archaeological sites of the area bronze coins are found so corroded that any identification of the smaller denominations seems desperate...
In the Macellum of Jerash they identified 335 coins of the 4th c. (down to 408), only 61 coins of the 5th c., and 679 illegible ones datable of the 4th or 5th century !
But there are also 10 Vandalic coins and 1 Axumite of the 5th c. Jerash is not the only site in the area where Vandalic and Axumite coins have been found. in Petra, some have been reported...
It is more likely that 4th c. coins, that had been minted in enormous quantities, were still circulating in the 5th c. and even later. New coins of emperors such as Marcian or Zeno were not provided in sufficient quantities, so people used also foreign coins acceptable as small change, like Vandalic coinage from North Africa or Axumite coinage from Ethiopia.

 

I know this is the wrong place but saw your WTB Ikes and was not able to find a place to respond. If still interested, please message me and start a conversation.
Thanks