Some thoughts on the recent mint “instant rarities”

The mint does show a surplus, which is like a profit in “government speak.” The mint naturally makes from its normal operations. This years it has added more to it.

 

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Well, if this current product (special proof set) coming up this week or so at an ultra-inflated $235 is any indication by selling out in 10 mins (quickly), why should the mint change anything save to maybe limit initial quantities to dealers, et al, the first time around...someone is buying them.

 

This old thing?



This sucker ain't a fast mover.......still available and, I suspect, will remain so for weeks to come.

 

Yes, still relatively high, but has not held its value. My 2010 Red Book says $250 unc, $275 proof. By 2020, Red Book is $125 unc, $120 proof. [For those who don't know the story, major dealers took pre-sale orders on the coin for a few dollars over issue price, expecting to make bulk purchases from the mint as was the usual practice. At the last minute, the mint imposed a 20 per household limit, no exceptions for their bulk buyers. The dealers scrambled to get coins to fulfill their orders, not wanting to upset good customers. That drove the price to absurd heights, but as the Red Book indicates, they have backed off quite a bit since then. IIRC, they were going for a lot over $250 at one point.]

 

I am one of the "lucky" ones. I got 3 2021W ASE's Type 1 and 5 Type 2, purely by accident. However, I am still waiting for the "Backordered" Morgans (D) & (S) to match with my 1921 (D) and 1921 (S). My order for the 2021 ASE Reverse Proof Set is still "Processing" and my order for the 2021W American Legion is "Backordered" and last, but not Leased the recent release of the 2021 Limited Edition Set. (Now, how do I hide the bills when they come in?) That, at least, ends any further ordering this year. I got the Air Force Silver puck and was going to get the Coast Guard puck, but decided it wasn't worth it.
To read your messages on Coin Talk, I am going to see my Therapist next week to find out why I put myself through all of this.
Best of Luck to you all. Pray that my wife doesn't kill me.

 

The US Mint isn't producing "instant rarities". There is nothing rare about them. It's all a play on words to make people think they are rare and be willing to spend a lot of money on something that will never really be rare. You want something rare buy a Seated Dollar. The most common Seated dollar is far rarer than anything produced by the mint today. You can buy a nice VF of a common date for around $400.00. If your looking for a mint state version then most of the dates have less than 100 known some are even less than 50 known. A proof 1865 Seated Dollar had a mintage of 500 whereas the 2021 Morgan's have mintages of over 150,000 for each type.

 

Yes, the U.S. Mint has created instant rarities simply because the coins in question are so popular. The 2021 Morgan silver dollar and the 2021 Peace silver dollar have become instant "rarities", simply because of the insane demand. Plus the T2 ASE varieties are now overpriced because of high demand. Unlike some overpriced coins that have now come down in value/price, the 2021 Morgan and the 2021 Peace dollars will no doubt remain pricey for quite some time, simply because of the historical significance. Demand seems to drive most everything.
Keep in mind however, just what coins have kept up with inflation over the past 30 or 40 years? The truly rare or exceptional coins, but not most of the others. So it seems that popularity and scarcity go hand in hand for the most part. IMHO
Also, and my pet peeve, is so-called "investors" sinking their money into non-rare coins who are wasting their time and money simply because of inflation.

 

Almost every coin I own has fewer than 100 known of the variety. Most of the ones that aren't are even rarer die states. A few were misattributed and more common. But they're not worth a fortune because, though rare, they don't meet the requirements of the big spenders. But I would venture to say they are ALL 1,500 times "rarer" than these modern rarities.

 

I've been seeing the Uncs down as low as $95 at shows so it is still coming down. Unfortunately I don't think it will ever get down to the level its mintage would justify (about $40). It is one of the most common of all the commemorative silver dollars as far as mintage goes.