London Coins-- another suspicions of shill bidding thread

Agreed - I was just answering the question why someone might NOT win despite having a max greater than the winning bid.

I always snipe at auctions having a fixed end time, else bid live when possible if there is no fixed end time. I see zero (or rather negative) benefit in giving other people a chance to bid after I've bid my max!

I've also had too many auctions where I've submitted a pre-bid and won close or at my maximum, and given the auction rules of "the company" posted above, it's not even clear if they'd be violating their stated terms by bidding on their own or consigner's behalf to drive the bid up the maximum you've made known to them! On some auction platforms the pre-bids compete against each other before the auction even starts, driving up the pre-bid minimum, which is another reason not to pre-bid unless no alternative is available.

 

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Mostly agreed, though I see a few corner cases where pre-bids are still useful. One is what I call "positioning." I used it not long ago on a coin with an opening bid of 450, which honestly was my "normal" max. However, I put in a pre-bid of 500.

Why? Because I knew that auction used increments of 50 starting at 500, so by taking my "position" there, I dared someone to pay 10% more. That's pretty steep, and I won the coin at 500, or no one felt it was worth 450 and I was shill bid.

Another is what I call an "insurance bid." Say a coin comes up that I know should go for 1500. I really, really want that coin, but the max I can do is 1000. In very rare situations, the coin has gone for 1000 or less, so who knows? I put in my bid for 1000 as an "insurance" bet. The overwhelming odds are that I won't get the coin, but by placing that bid I'm assured to not end up in a pool of tears because the coin went for 900 and I would have won it.

 

Let's consider what the alternative outcomes are if you instead *live* bid 500 rather than pre-bid:

1) You win coin for <= 500
2) Coin sells for exactly 500 to someone else's pre-bid (early bid takes precedence)
3) Coin sells for more than your max of 500

Your "positioning/early" pre-bid strategy is only a winning tactic in the narrow case 2). In the broader case 1) it's a losing strategy in the event of shill bidding. and in case 3) it makes no difference.

If you're really trying to avoid losing the coin for 500+1 increment, I'd just live bid; you may get lucky and win for < 500, or if it does reach exactly 500 you still have the option of going one increment higher.

Even in that situation, if you think your bid does have a small chance of winning, then why not still give it the benefit of treating it as a "real bid" and not pre-bid unless you have to? I suppose it could make sense if you think your chance of winning is so small that it's not worth the inconvenience of live bidding, and you really just want to avoid the annoyance of seeing it go for less!

 

I had 10 bids in the auction and each one was lost by £10

 

Keep in mind that in the example I gave, the opening bid was 450. To me, 500 was an absolute max. I really wanted the coin, but I (to this day) go back and forth on whether 500 was worth it. I should also remark that at the time I wasn't as convinced about shill bidding. If I bid against a real person, then my move was correct. If the auction shill bid me, then I could have had it for 50 less.

Personally for me, I just want to fire off the bid and forget about it. The more I look at the coin, the more attached I get. I really want to just send out the bid and forget about it until the auction closes, though I rarely do. To give you a concrete example: my last "insurance bid" was at Heritage. I actually bid above what my research said the coin was worth, and that I'd place at a "normal" auction, and the coin went for 2.5x my max. Recently, a shittier version of the same type went on Heritage for even more, but by then I'd given up trying to buy anything there.

I also forgot to mention a third type of pre-bid, which I call a "test bid." It's a super lowball bid I put on a coin I'm interested in, just because I'm paranoid that for some reason my auction registration is faulty. I throw a min bid on something just to make sure things work, then place my real bid live.

 

I guess I wasn't clear... I just meant that I won those coins at below my max, i.e. I wasn't shill bid up to my max. Nothing mysterious! Just a couple of data points in London Coins' favour.

 

Since we're getting into taxonomy of odd bid types, there's also my (really eBay-specific) "opening-spoiler bid" where I put in a minimum opening bid on something rare hoping that having a bid will deter the seller from removing it and selling it to someone for an off-eBay offer.

 

I'm not so sure the deviation of winning bids from a max will be that great assuming you haven't placed a significantly excessive bid. You stated earlier that you got a lot at a price equal to a previous win at max. You had in your mind what that coin was worth and bid accordingly. A modicum of research will tell you what the price guides say for a given coin too. i.e. most people bidding will have a pretty good idea what a coin should go for, and so the range of top bids for a majority will be in a fairly narrow window. The real alarm bells should sound if you put in an unrealistically high max bid of say several multiples and it hammers at that level, because the competition is likely to be only one person, or possibly two. At the pocket change level of a few hundred, there will be many, many more potential bidders, leaving limited downside in the final price.

 

Shill bidding is difficult to prove in absolute terms. It can only be inferred as suggested in this thread. I have won enough coins either at, or nearly at my max to warrant at least some suspicion. The only way to circumvent the problem is by not bidding in timed auctions, and to stick to the old-fashioned 'going once, twice' type. As protection against computer-generated bids at, or just under the max it's fool-proof.

Another thought: in the long run, wouldn't computer-generated bids hurt the auction house?
First: if you suspect computer-generated bids, you'd probably be inclined to lower your max bid on the lots you're interested in (the thought being: if my lots repeatedly hammer at one increment below my max, why not drop my bids by an increment or two? Chances are, I get it at one increment below max at that price as well. Money saved).
Second: it hurts the reputation of the auction house involved, and collectors are a lot less inclined to participate in their auctions.

It's things like these that make me dislike timed auctions. They're hugely intransparent and leave you blindly at the mercy of the auctioneer's honesty and integrity.

 

Thank you, Thomas! I see now that I completely misunderstood you.

 

If you bid with london coins on Biddr alot of the time your bid doesn't get counted, biddr will email you with the standard automated reply saying your bids been sent or whatever but most of the time you have to email london coins to make sure they actually have your bid. 2 weeks before the auction I placed 10 bids then 5 days before the auction I emailed to make sure they got them and they only had 4 recorded.

 

I think you're correct for some coins, but what I bid on a coin varies by my priority. I'm pretty methodical in my purchases and have a list of coins I constantly modify organized by priority. It's rare that I'll tackle something not explicitly on my list, the exceptions being the two coins I mentioned that I got at opening bid.

So, for a lower priority coin - which is one I see quite often and am not worried if I lose - I'll place an offer right at the market value, or maybe slightly lower.

If this is a high priority coin, I'll be very aggressive.

But when regardless of what I offer I win at or next to my max, I get suspicious.

 

Interesting. There are a few unsettling things in CNG’s terms of service. This one is my favorite (i.e. least-favorite!).

“2. Guaranty and Return Privilege. All items are guaranteed genuine. Any coin order may be returned within fourteen days of receipt for any reason. Coins that have been encapsulated ("slabbed") by a grading and/or authentication service may not be returned for any reason, including authenticity, if they have been removed from the encapsulation ("slab"). The customer shall bear the cost of returning all items and shall insure them for their full value. Books are not sent on approval and are not subject to return.”​

So you cannot return a fake coin if you have removed it from the slab. NGC is amazing at spotting fakes and I have great respect for them but I would prefer the CNG guarantee to the NGC opinion. That is a good reason (for me at least) to never buy a slabbed coin from CNG. Does anyone know if CNG would be willing to remove a slabbed coin that you win from the slab before sending to you so that you can actually enjoy their authenticity guarantee?

Sorry for the tangent!

 

ANOTHER REASON I PREFER EBAY, NO SHENANIGANS, NO problem refunds, and what i bid is what i pay, no buyer fees..

 

Yes. I've never had an issue with any of the replica coins I've purchased there.

 

Don't be silly. eBay banned all replica coins years ago.
https://www.ebay.com/help/policies/prohibited-restricted-items/replica-coins-currency-policy?id=5042

 

Why are you buying replica coins on eBay? or are you just being sarcastic about buying on eBay?


Granted, I don't buy expensive coins or hardly any ancients, but I do buy silver coins of all types and I've actually purchased a few ancients recently that I showed to CT members to confirm authenticity and value. All on eBay.
So far, I haven't been disappointed or ripped off.
I do "due diligence" before I buy and if I receive any silver coin I'm unsure of after I receive it, I take it to a jewelry store around the corner and shoot it with their X-ray gun.
I've only had one coin, a French Indo China Piastre, test at only 25% silver and I returned it for a full refund.

I've been shopping on eBay since 2005.

 

That's actually perfect. Shows it to be a totally honest auction house that sold the coins for £10 above your bid and did not interpolate shills to raise the bids higher.

You should give a shout out to this firm, with name, as provably totally honest.

Also, consider bidding more next time round

 

Great to see there's not a pattern!