I know they go to different shows. Do they even look at ebay or other auction sites? I assume that they try and lok for ligitiment sales. Why wouldn't ebay qualify since 1. It is between a willing buyer and willing seller. 2. The buyer is knowledgable about the coin (As much as the description tells them at least). 3. It has plenty of exposure online (probably more looks than at some shops or shows). These are the main components of a true sale. Seems like many coins sell for far less on ebay than in the guides. The only reason that I think that they may not use online auctions is due to grading problems. But at the shows and shops, are the grades true also?
This is interesting because my Mom often brings this up. When I tell her I got a coin on Ebay for $10 that is worth $25, she always says, "who is it worth that to?"
Quoted are coin prices are all over the place on purpose so that no one ever knows if they pay to much for a coin. It's a shell game. A coin is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.
a short quote from the greysheet website, "From the beginning, as now, the CDN examines all possible sources of information: teletype services, computerized trading networks, dealer trades, "buy" lists, and auction Prices Realized." I have found the grey sheet to be the most up to date source, I have a subscription to numismatic news and the prices they feature are in my admittedly short experience about 15-20% higher than what I am used to paying.
If they look at asking prices, how do they know how long the coins just sit there for sale. Could be forever.
Exactly and there in lays the problem. They could easily inflate values just by having high prices. Keep the prices high enough and long enough and the rediculious becomes the norm.
I always value my coin collection at ebay prices times 0.8. You will always pay a buyers premium on the cheapest source of sale. I'm guessing it is 20%.
Decent explanation. However, I would usually either add for postage and handling or subtract that if it is included. The problem is there really is no such thing as a coin actual value. What they are when issued is the only real price of a coin. After that, they are what someone will pay for them. And always remember that they are called GUIDES. Not price listings and if they do call them that, they are in error. A good example is attempting to place a value on a 1955 Lincoln Cent Double Die. No one knows how many are in existence. How many were made. How many of thoes are left. What grades they are all in. Any value placed on that one alone is just a GUESS and that is why those listings are GUIDES. A decent method to evaluate your coins is to purchase a Red Book about three or four issues old. The prices listed in that one would be closer to what coins sell for today. I presently use the 2006 edition for evaluating my coins. People always misunderstand that those GUIDES are just GUIDES. Coins are sort of like buying a used house, used car, etc. Someone puts a price on them. Someone else counters with a less price. And that goes on until the item is sold. All just a hobby and/or buisness.
How do price guides come up with values? Whatever price guide you are looking at - they tell you flat out how they arrive at their prices. All you have to do is read it.
Naturally. What did you expect? Someone to state we just made up all this stuff? Of course they could state this magazine is purely guess work but then you wouldn't believe them. Many, many people claim lots and lots of statistics. Ever watch those adds on TV where they have all those testimonials by so called ACTUAL USERS of thier product?
With respect to eBay, part of the original question: Just as individual over the counter sales can't be accumulated-- even if you somehow got every brick and mortar coin shop into a network, that still leaves coin shows and private transactions-- eBay sales can't be accumulated either. Which I think leads to the whole point about guides being just that. I agree that eBay has certainly led to some degree of upheaval of prices in many different markets including coins (it has more or less demolished the relatively "closed" aftermarket for "collectible" model trains for example). Even so, it would be a monumental if not impossible task to somehow compile the sheer number of sales that take place on that venue. Then you'd have to tease out the sales that shouldn't be counted for some reason or another... uninformed seller, two or more "highly motivated buyers" who drive the price out of sight on a common coin, shill bidding, inapprporiate grading, etc. And this assumes that eBay would be willing to co-operate in the harvesting and commercial use of this data, which they most certainly will not. (They claim that they "own" it. I seem to recall that your consent to not harvest results was part of the User Agreement.) It's possible for someone to pick a few items, set searches on them and compile the results as another data point, but I can't see the value of going beyond that and then only for personal use. In my mind, the statements "I can get this on eBay for $" and "I can get $ for this on eBay!" result in the response, "Well, why don't you?"
I've always wanted to visit a bar, tavern, next to the publishers of all those Price Guides to see just how many of thier staff spends thier time in there.
