I have watched several live online auctions and don't understand how many of the higher end coins ($1,000 plus) the selling price with buyer's premium is 1/3 to 1/2 of what I see in the above guides, a $30,000 coin sell for $9,500. All I can assume is that the auctions are over-grading the coins, although many are slabbed. I appreciate any insight.
In general, most coins at auction don't sell at the values listed in price guides such as red book, PCGS coin values, ... However, I'd bet that most auction prices exceed grey sheet and probably blue book. Of course, for the rarest, most expensive coins, there are only a few buyers with pockets deep enough to buy them so all of them are meaningless.
You also discount the fact that many of the buyers for those coins are the dealers who view them in person and sell them to their clients who do not wish to spend strong money sight unseen for coins which they fear may not measure up.
The explanation is quite simple, all price guides - each and every one of them - are completely worthless. Values listed in them are completely unrealistic and way too high ! Real world values are what you see in the realized auction prices of reputable auction houses. And no, that does not include the prices you see on ebay - ebay is NOT a reputable auction house ! If you wish me to say it another way, that coin you refer to as a $30,000 coin - it is NOT a $30,000 coin at all ! It's real world value is $9,500.
I never use PCGS/NGC price guides. They're absurdly over-enthusiastic. Sometimes I'll reference CDN, but I'm not a dealer, so the wholesale price doesn't really apply to me, and can sometimes be higher than realized auction prices. What I do use, almost like the Bible, is the Heritage price index. I don't look just at that, but I think click on the coin in the HA guide, and it brings up all of their past ales for that coin, and also shows me how many are currently on the block. I look at the most recent sales, and look and the coins that sold in the grade I'm looking at, as well as any other attributes (if applicable), similar toning, CAC, etc. Then I decide what i want to pay from seller X, knowing that I can get something similar from HA at some point for a price range of Y. For more common items, I'll also throw in a quick search of eBay sold listings, but not so much. Use PCGS & NGC Price guides only if money is no object, and you like to be able to stake a claim of having paid the most.
Using Heritage is just about the best thing you can do. Not only does it allow you see realized auction prices, it will also allow you to see the listed values for many of the more popular price guides. And it is then you can easily see that the price guides are over-valued, and often grossly over-valued. And if you wish to confirm the realized auction prices you see on Heritage, you can check realized auction prices on other reputable auction house websites. When you do you will see they are all in the same price ranges. And that's something else collectors need to be aware of, there is no single number (price) for any coin. What there is is a price range, generally rather limited, but it is a range, not a single set number. This is because no two coins are ever equal. Even if coins are graded by the same TPG and both have the same grade, one is going to be nicer in one regard or another than the other coin or coins. And if you're looking at a coin, what you have to decide is where in that coin lands in that price range. And it is somewhat common for you to be able to find the exact same coin you're looking at, same coin, same slab, same serial number - simply previously sold in one of the auctions.
I always use recent sales as my guide when bidding/purchasing a coin. If the coin has exceptional strike/eye appeal for the grade I'll go high end relative to recent sales. I don't buy based on price guide.
