Coin Week just posted this interesting article by Tyler Rossi. Most of us are aware of these reasons but it's nice to see them in writing . https://coinweek.com/ancient-coins/four-reasons-the-ancient-coin-market-is-complicated/
Good list. There would be other factors you could add, but that would be nit picking. #1 is still important and I tell everyone who will listen to pay attention to it. If a coin was rare for years and suddenly is common, do NOT believe it will now be common "forever". Hoards come on the market, prices go down, then they are absorbed and rarity and prices return to normal. TAKE ADVANTAGE of hoards, buy into them without fear. You will thank me 5 years later when you have good coins that you simply cannot buy on the market today, since that hoard is long gone.
Very succinctly written article by Rossi. Unfortunately, there are still many "collectors" (I am not talking about dealers) who are in it for the "investment opportunities". If you are not awestruck by holding an ancient coin in & of itself, you may be in it for the wrong reason...JMO...
I think that is driving the "pretty" high end market and why that segment has gone up so much more than the rest. Give me historically important ugly coins.
As an economist, I tend to think in terms of "utility" rather than monetary value. If I buy a coin that I really want and like I derive a constant stream of "utility". This "utility" will hopefully offsets any potential monetary loss that may result from the discovery of new hoards or changes in collectors' preferences. A "collector" who derives no "utility" from his collection is an investor and he better stays away from ancient coins.
Great article. I pray that trillions of mint state quality coins are discovered some day soon to obliterate the investors. This American-centric drive to monetize every single aspect of our lives is ruinous to simple joy and happiness.
Thanks for sharing Al. This was a fun read that I think all of us on here can attest is accurate. It appears my coins are safe to the effects of the strangeness that is going on in the market as of late... "If you stay away from very expensive ancient coins, you are more than likely to maintain the value of your collection. While you may not make much, you will also probably not lose much. Instead, an aspiring numismatist would do well to collect what interests them and to appreciate the historical value instead of the potential financial benefits."
My collection consists only of coins I have cleaned and identified myself. So, the above information is very interesting, but, I don't think it will impact my direction. The impact I do have is that it is getting more and more difficult to find premium uncleaned coins and get them to the USA.