Figuring Out Market Value - Case Study - 1911-S Cent

I thought I might treat myself to some "hole fillers" of those semi-key old Lincolns. Sometimes I find some steals on eBay -- often I use "Numismedia" as my bible for FMV, since they are up-to-date and also, I've seen, a bit on the low side. I figure if I can get the coin for lower than Numismedia, then it's a decent deal.

Somebody else in another thread mentioned a few on-line sites they like.

And so, I decided to compare Numismedia to some of those sites, just for general knowledge. This is a case study with a sample size of one (so I'm not drawing any conclusions) -- but I found some strange results, and I was wondering if someone could help explain to me what the heck is going on.

I picked a low end 1911-s, because that's what I was interested in, and because someone a while back recommended that as a sleeper. (Yes, yes, I know that high end is the way to go for appreciation/investment, but I'm not a dealer, high end collector, or investor -- and, in any event, high-end for this coin is out of my budget, and I just want to fill a long-time empty hole).

With all those caveats aside, here's what I found for G-4/VG-8/F-12 for 1911-s:

Numismedia: 20/29/37
mtvcoins.com - /58/ -
coastcoin.com 55/-/-
valleycoin.com - /66/69
executivecoin.com -/48/-

OK -- so what the heck is going on?! Yeah, yeah, I know, a lot is eye appeal, and vagaries of grading . . . but, still . . . why is Numismedia so so much lower than elsewhere, often half the price?

Thoughts/comments anyone?

 

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Numismedia does not reflect retail prices like the websites you posted.

Numismedia is a better gauge on wholesale/auction prices.

All of the above IMO...Mike

 

numismedia is closer to a greysheet than is any of those online coin sites.

 

Even so . . . is the retail value _double_ that of greysheet? In this instance?

Just trying to figure out what, as a consumer, I should be paying for such an item if I'm looking for a good price, and how I determine that.

 

First off, you have no guarantee that all G4's are really even G's. Just because mtvcoins.com (for instance) says it is does not mean much of anything. Once you can compare one coin with another or learn how to grade, then you have some meaning to your comparison.

Aside from that, your main question is how to determine what the market price is. The answer to that is simple - look at what they have sold (past tense) for. eBay, Heritage, DLRC, teletrade all give you past sales with the prices. I do not use any price list but rely strictly on past sale records except occasionally when there are no recent sales.

 

So, suppose they overgraded that coin -- well, then they are quoting *more* than double of Numismedia! That's what I don't get . . .

 

That is why I do not buy from such places. Then I do not have that problem.

 

I purchased one today for $21.57 in G.. shop around shop around...

 

I was just looking at a 1911-s today at a shop for I think it was 12 dollars,that was in the f-12 to vg-8 range,I passed it up,myself,but if it's still there next time I might pick it up for resale. If anyone is interested. I like to shop in person,cause there can be a big difference at the low end if a coin is acceptable or not.

 

sorry to the op but since i live in ireland and have no red book or grey sheet what are the other semi key dates i have abouth two dozen wheats and would like to know if i could help someone fill that hole in hes collection again i do not want offend the op thanks dave

 

I think the key is that the prices on retail coin websites are the prices they are asking, not what they are selling for. I could ask $100 for my '57 d wheat cent in au, that doesn't mean I'm going to sell it.

 

WHAT? You didn't check out the Red Book for pricing? You didn't check out the PCGS web site? :smile
That is the fun of this hobby. You could find a 1911S in G-4 at about 1,000 dealers for 1,000 different prices. The idea of this is to find the one coin you like best for the price you like best. With over 4 million made, your bound to find a G-4 for anywhere from $1 to $1,000,000 the way this hobby is going lately. Well maybe not $1 but then again you never know. :whistle:

 

I think some folks are missing the point of my question. I'm trying to ask why Numismedia is _half_ what everybody else has.

Numismedia: 20/29/37
mtvcoins.com - /58/ -
coastcoin.com 55/-/-
valleycoin.com - /66/69
executivecoin.com -/48/-

PCGS 44/-/58
(For kicks -- can somebody tell me what does it says in RedBook (which got accidentally packed into a box that I can't find right now))?

If Numismedia is along the lines of greysheet. . . is greysheet really that much lower than other places? If not, is this coin an exception?

Further, for Numismedia -- the "free online FMV" guide is *different* from the dealer guide. I would have guessed that the latter is close to greysheet, but the numbers I'm using above is the former.


​

 

Well, the simple answer is: go to any price guide (there's a free one at http://numismedia.com/fmv/fmv.shtml) and it becomes really obvious which one's are "key" (the really expensive ones) -- 1909s, 1909s vdb, 1931s, 1914d, 1922 plain -- and which one's are semi key (all the other ones which stick out like a sore thumb in their pricing: 1910-s, 1911-s, etc.)

Hope that helps.

 

(For kicks -- can somebody tell me what does it says in RedBook (which got accidentally packed into a box that I can't find right now))?\

redbook 45/50/55 :headbang:

 

The dot coms are trying to sell coins and steal from the buyers. They are not price guides. Their prices are meaningless as both I and vipergts2 posted earlier. Numismedia has some validity, but generally is not considered accurate. PCGS also has some validity for SLABBED coins, but they also are trying to enhance the value of their slabs.

 

Well, so far we have:

Numismedia: 20/29/37
mtvcoins.com - /58/ -
coastcoin.com 55/-/-
valleycoin.com - /66/69
executivecoin.com -/48/-

PCGS 44/-/58​

Red Book 45/50/55
Littleton 99/105/110

So . . . given all the above . . . what's a fair market price for G4/VG8/F12 ?

 

The 2008 Red Book lists the 1911 S at 18/20/24 so think about all the Lincoln hype since the 2009 year price upticks.

Bruce