The Rainbow Toned Coin Market--Journey of an 1881-S Morgan Dollar

Interesting discussion. The way this thread started, I half expected to read about when it left the S.F. mint vault and what collectors/banks it went through before heading to PCGS! Oh well. Still a good read!

This will be a never ending debate. I think you could sell the coin 10 times and realize a different, higher or lower price each time. It's just too random and all depends on finding the right buyer. You have proved that you don't always lose and the price did NOT go down as some continually imply.
Sometimes a toned coin just catches someone's eye and they have to have it. While other people may not want it as badly. All a matter of how hard it is to find that one (or many) buyers who want it that badly. They are unique and to that extent, should have staying power.

I don't know how we can say prices realized on ebay "don't matter." Maybe if we knew ebay was going away next year or something. Wouldn't it make sense that Ebay gets more coverage worldwide than Heritage? Or a local B&M coin shop? If the dealer's selling on ebay, I bet they won't decline the money the people will pay or doubt the value!! One person dealing with a dealer in a small town is not a good indicator of value to me.

I'm not saying Ebay has the smartest buyers but when you want something, you want it! And there's more people to outbid if you have to have it. Some people are afraid to spend a few bucks. Others are free spenders and want stuff badly. Now it comes down to what two people are willing to do and how bad they want it. If you don't want to be agressive, then there's a good chance you'll go empty handed. You can think whatever you want about it afterwards. No matter who's right or wrong, you don't have the product!

Sounds like a true open market to me. NOT to say the same result or price would be realized if the same coin was sold the next week or the week after that. Ebay is really hit or miss.

As you say though, the only thing that bothers me is the coin doctors and not really knowing what they're capable of.

I find it interesting how many toned 1881-S Morgans are out there. There's so many of them and so many different types of toning. I always see them.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Coins or any other items are only worth,what ones willing to pay

 

You can say that again. The top four are MS64 followed by a 65, 66, 67 & 68. Common in every grade.



Four of these Morgans are from the Great Falls Collection. Another group of coins that sold very cheaply on Heritage and sky rocketed in price when sold with accurate photos. If anyone wants to see the before and after photos, let me know!

 

Yummy photos!:eating:

 

The 1958 quarters are the same way.

 

The fact is that you can speak with Coin Dealers all over the United States, and 9 out of ten will tell you the same thing.... we are in a very very rough market. The few that I have spoken to personally, went so far as to confide with me the fact that they are not replenishing inventories as they have had for many years past. Where historically some issues that had held strong in troubled times, this is not the case we are experiencing with todays volitile Economy. And one thing they are definitely not doing is buying into the secondary market of either Error or Toned Coins.

When the publics favor for blazing white Coins are not being laid claim to. those same buyers will look elsewhere for their desires or NEEDS. Let us not forget that collecting today is a different animal for most. It's Called REGISTRY FEVER. Now it is my opinion that this collector shift are becoming believers in the "NT" Coin Markert. SO with the lack of availability and affordability for issues that by history has done well, the NT coin market is increasing in interest and holding values fairly well by comparison.

The market will come back, but I don;t suspect it will be anytime in the near future, despite all the noise being written about it.

THIS IS A BUYERS MARKET IF YOU CAN LOCATE WHAT YOU WANT AND ARE ABLE TO NEGOTIATE WELL. NT COINS will always command a premium, as will Error Coins.
Shop around, talk to Dealers, look at inventories, the availability, simply isn't there. SO where you happen to find one, make sure you understand the future of that purchase.

 

I have to be honest, I don't really understand most of this post. However, it is my experience that dealers of both error and toned coins usually specialize in those markets and they do not consider it a secondary market. For them it is a primary market. If you want examples: Island Coin, Polaris Numismatics, Numisvision, Greattoning (E-Bay), RCtoners (E-Bay) to name a few.

Typically toned coin collectors are not big on the registry fever since the best toned coins are not always the highest graded. I am one of the few that has incorporated the extra points given to star designated coins as a way to compete with higher graded coins and those with strike designations. Without the star designation, my Jefferson war nickel set falls out of the top five.

 

Well, I am in a general sense referring to your local neighborhood Dealers. But even if you speak with your specialty Dealers, I'm fairly confident they might admit, they too are not replenishing their inventories, as they had previously to this down market.

The point I am having difficulty in making Lehigh, is simply that I agree that in a down market, toned and error collectors Demand is strong . I wish I could better explain my thought process , but my medications are really screwing with me lately.

Tom.

 

I think there is a segment of the toner market that pays ridiculous prices for common coins with common toning when photographed by certain photographers/coin dealers that make the coin look much better than it does in-hand.

I think that a true price for a coin is better represented by a sight-seen auction (like Heritage) rather than a sight-unseen auction (like e-bay), particularly considering the point made above concerning this seller's photographs.

I also think that one coin does not a market make.

Remember, you asked.

 

Mike,

While I agree with you about people (myself included occasionally) paying ridiculous prices for common coins with common toning, we will have to disagree about the photography issue. I know your opinion of Anaconda/Brandon Kelley and don't share it. I think he is of the same caliber photographer as Mark Goodman and others. Remember, I have purchased 10-20 coins from Anaconda and never once was I left with the feeling that the photo was better than the coin in hand. For the most part, the coins were even better in hand because it is hard to capture luster & color together in a photo.

My assessment of Anaconda and Brandon is based on my experience with them. I will readily admit that Anaconda charged exorbitant prices for the majority of their coins. However, if you watched their inventory closely over an extended period of time, it was possible to make reasonable offers that would be accepted. Despite their fleecing ways, they did not use extreme photo editing practices on their photos and I consider them some of the best images in numismatics.

They made money by purchasing exceptional toned coins at major sales from Heritage and others and then sold them with large retail mark ups on their website with drastically improved photos. They are not the only dealers that do this, Chubberchub (E-Bay) is the first other one to come to mind. I will give you and Doug an example of what I am talking about. The following three Morgan Dollars were part of the Great Falls collection and sold as one lot in the 2007 Long Beach Sale. Here is a link to the auction.

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=430&Lot_No=5441

As you can see, Anaconda paid $2,185 for the lot which is a premium of 15X Numismedia Wholesale. They then listed them on their website for nearly $1,000 each. Here are the comparitive photos of the obverse of each coin (Heritage-top).



I purchased all three coins for a total of $2,600. Was it foolish to pay 18X wholesale for these coins? Probably! Will I recover my costs if I ever sell these coins? Probably not! Do I blame Anaconda for making a profit of $415 (19%)? Certainly not! Are these coins ever going drop below 10X wholesale? I severely doubt it because I have seen them in hand!

I would like to thank both you and Doug for pointing out that one coin does not define a market. I was not aware of that, or was I?

The quote above is from my OP in this thread.
​

 

In my opinion there's no right or wrong, its in eye of the beholder and money in your pocket, if it fits your needs then by all means buy it, the value is to you and to you only weather its profit or not in other words be happy for that person its only money.Buying money gives you money so make your self happy right or wrong

 

I will add one thing. It has been Paul (Lehigh) who has really raised my concious level in regard to tonners. At one time I felt that only "blast white" was acceptable in collecting. He has actually expanded my way of thinking in regard to these types of coins......

 

At the risk of beating this to death, and following Doug and Mike's folly:whistle:, I think the OP is great, Paul, but in my opinion is indicative of the value of that individual coin, not the toned market generally, i.e. you can't draw a curve from a single data point (I know there were multiple sales, but it was a single coin).
I would think this is particularly true for the toned coin market, where eye appeal is necessarily subjective. As an example, many of us can agree that the coin in the OP is attractive, although we might differ on whether it is a 6 or an 8 or a 9 on a scale of 1 to 10 for eye appeal (to borrow Steve Estes' scale). I think that grading, while it has subjective elements (like eye appeal), should be capable of being largely objective. For instance, two skilled graders should tend to grade an individual coin consistently or at least within one grade of each other, particularly for mint state coins.

Ultimately, I think it is more difficult to estimate the true value of a coin whose value is largely attributable to its toning than one that is not. At a minimum, the value of toned coins would certainly seem more volatile. Please feel free to tell my I'm wrong!:loud:

 

I can't tell you that you are wrong when you are not. Everything you posted is true. The idea of the OP was to spark debate about the toned coin market for those that follow it. You can't draw conclusions from the performance of one coin but you can discuss how it is similar or different from other patterns/trends in the toned coin market. Most everyone believes that the toned coin market is down along with the entire numismatic market. My contention is that there is a segment within the toned coin market that is doing very well and this coin belongs to that segment.

 

I never said that Brandon doesn't take good photographs -- to the contrary I agree he's a great photographer. I simply said he makes the coin look much better than it does in-hand -- and I stand by that statement.

Let's take the coin used in this thread for an example -- the coin is a very darkly toned coin. I will wager the coin appears almost black in-hand, yet the overexposed photo using nearly-reflected light disguises this fact. Does the coin look like it does in the photograph if it is angled just right into the light -- yes. Does the coin look like this from a distance or in-hand at any other angle -- no.

And like you, I've seen quite a few of their coins both in-hand and in photographs. It is very likely that I've had the opportunity to examine more of their inventory than you have, having visited their table on two occasions at FUN and going through their entire inventory.

I will disagree that they made money by purchasing exceptional coins. Some of their inventory was exceptional. Most wasn't.

Now there's nothing wrong with making a profit. There's nothing wrong with taking great photos and using those photos to sell the coins.

However, when one interprets retail sales done in this way to define market prices for coins that I take exception.

First, from what I recall, a 19% markup was hardly typical for Anaconda.

Second, put those coins up for sale at the next Signature auction and see what they bring sight-seen. I'll bet it's much closer to 10x than you think.

Your welcome. Let's remember that I wasn't the one whose title tried to draw that conclusion.

Take care...Mike

 

Well, no matter what (and this may seem like a very obvious and basic statement), I think the more that is paid for a coin or anything, the harder it is to recoup the initial investment. No matter how nice it is. Somebody will always want it cheaper.
I've seen some toned coins in the $300-500 and 1000+ range sitting on ebay for over a year. Who set these price points? Who knows? Maybe picked out of a hat?
They're nice. I'm sure they would sell at the right price, but they aren't selling at their current one.

Someone who hasn't been paying attention over the past year, may come a long and buy up one of them for $600 buy it now, not knowing what I just mentioned. Then they may decide to sell it next month and re-list it starting at 0.99. You can bet they would likely take a heavy loss and probably have a bad attitude about the toned coin market from then on.

Whereas, a $50 coin....... you should be able to get $50 back out of it pretty easily, even in a down market. Even if you only got $40 back out of it, the actual loss is minimal, despite the percentage.

There's just so much more room for price fluctuation and speculation once you get up into the 4 digit range and beyond on all this stuff. A lot of higher priced coins I'm sure are taking huge hits right now because of this fact.

Where a $120 coin might have it's value down to $115 now and it's not that big of a deal. The game all depends on what level you're willing to play at and how much risk you're comfortable with.

It's a double edged sword with higher end, really nice stuff. Yes it may be premium and you may have paid a high price to get it, but it also means there's a much smaller pool of potential buyers who can afford it. Something you have to live with and expect when the time comes.

There really aren't that many coin collectors to begin with. Then, how small of a slice of those people are knowledgeable, and not only buy high end, but toned coins? The slice gets thinner and thinner, even though the popularity may have gone up. Plus, you probably know yourself that even the people who are into them..... even the big spenders, can't afford to buy everything they want! Which is yet another limiting factor to the seller. Just something to take into consideration.

 

My personal opinion is that perhaps the market for certain areas of coins (especially commons in very high grade) has fallen, but it doesn't seem to have in other areas, and maybe toned coins, which are high in price, tend to follow the 'higher priced coins going for less'. While people do seem to definitely overpay for stuff on ebay as a general rule, it seems like the general price of just 'basic coins' has gone up quite a bit. Perhaps this is from the gold/silver prices going way up, because I have bought a lot of smaller level coins in the last 1-2 years, and have noticed that I am being outbid a lot more easily, and by far more. However, it was still the case awhile ago that I had an easier time getting deals on higher level stuff, even though there would still be nutjobs that overpaid by a huge amount. I do not know much about toned coins as a market, but I do think there are a few forces at work.

To outline some more:

The first force is basically the economy, which depresses the overall coin market, but especially for higher value coins since these cost a lot of money that people don't have. This is much worse for 'common' high end coins, where people don't perceive any serious 'rarity' going on. Its likely more pronounced in the 'real world' coin hobby as opposed to ebay, where people aren't as eager, etc.

The second force, going against this, is the rising price of precious metals, which (especially on ebay) drives a spur in the desire to acquire coins. However, most people still don't have enough money for higher end stuff, so naturally they pay more for lower end stuff. I used to snipe stuff ending at off times for extremely good deals sometimes, but it has gotten much harder. I see common date F-12 barber quarters going above numismedia value, when I would previously get them for 55-60%, and sell at 85%. I see the same with seated and bust coins, though I have always had trouble winning the large size capped bust quarters (people pay a lot for them).

I recently bid on a huge amount of certified barber halves around $50-$200 in value (most of them, anyway). While I likely wouldnt have won that many before, even WITH combined shipping (I won the first), I only won two out of over 25, and was outbid by a huge amount even though I bid a little higher than I normally would have.

Funny enough, the one I won (a PCGS F-12 1904-S, very choice for the grade and in my opinion at least close to F-15) was a high value purchase. I was extremely surprised to win it, and thought I'd be outbid on the order of a few hundred dollars. I won one other (PCGS VF-30 1908-O or something) barely, by $1. But many of the others, I judged the value to be $80, bid $55 or so, they finished for $90 or $100. So its pretty obvious to me that people are paying more for low-mid level stuff, but shying away from higher level common stuff. Awhile ago, I think I would have won at least 5-7 of them for really good prices, possibly lower than what I bid.

Again, not sure how this factors into the very specific thread subject of the toned coin market, but this is just what I have observed.

 

My mention was basically in the conclusion of the post. It meant that everything you have read to this point is entertaining but can't possibly summarize the entire market. If I did not emphasize the point enough in my post, I apologize. However, I think the truth is that both of you are trying to diminish the fact that I acknowledged the point in order to further bolster your point of view.

I don't agree with you lumping me in with the very few that were willing to pay Anaconda's ridiculous prices. I have stated throughout this thread that I patiently watched their inventory and pounced when I saw an opportunity to negotiate a better deal than their list price. I still overpaid for most of the coins, but the quality of the coins in relation to the photos was fantastic.

You claim that one dealer does not make a market. All of the other major players in the toned coin market do exactly what Anaconda did. In fact, some even charge higher prices than Anaconda and many obviously enhance their photos. Island Coins, Numisvision (DeFalco), and the E-Bay sellers (Duffydaddy1 & Chubberchub) to mention a few. They all overprice their coins in hopes of getting a profitable offer. If every toned coin dealer follows the same practice, that does make the market. Dealers that don't specialize in toned coins will often sell the coin at a very fair price and leave money on the table.

If you were looking for an inexpensive coin at Anaconda's table, you were looking in the wrong place. If you want I can start posting photos of Anaconda coins that are not deeply toned, but I doubt you will believe me. BTW, only the EOR Great Falls coin would qualify as dark. The other two have very light bright toning.

I guess we have to take your word that the $275 coin which was probably a common date MS65 was just as nice as SOME of the Anaconda coins since we don't have photos. SOME being the key word in the sentence.

I agree that if you bought Anaconda coins, you almost always overpaid, but not to the extent that you would have people believe. I think the crux of our debate comes down to what premium is acceptable to pay for toned coins. I have already stated my opinion on this subject many times. Until you provide us with your opinion of toning premiums, I don't see this debate being settled anytime soon.