Yes.. I strongly believe the coin market IS dropping.

Not all coins are dropping. Commom date mint state $20 Libs and Saints are going through the roof. They are well into the $2K plus territory now.

 

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partially (or mostly) due to the increase in the price of gold

 

You are correct on partially, at least. This is a painful market for a double eagle collector. I was able to get many of my more common doubles for at most a few hundred over spot. Now the premium is around $1K on MS-64 Saints, for example.

OUCH!

 

I told you that I'd buy that '95-W went it gets down to $1000.

 

Well, you're right.

 

Agreed..it's the same with most collectibles, be they coins, muscle cars or art.

Prices do tend to rise and fall with the business cycle and this being a more severe recession than most, it will take more time for values to rebound.

 

Jus' kiddin' you. You're a good guy and I like your posts!

 

I think what we are seeing is a compression in coin prices, with those that sell primarily on bullion value rising while those that sell primarily on numismatic value falling. If it continues for awhile, there might be opportunities for the nimble to trade in the common silver and gold coins for the higher end coins on the wish list.

 

You must be reading my mind. I have been thinking of trading in most of my common date Saints for nice XF-45 CC $20's. CC $20's have been holding fairly steady, or just up a slight bit.

 

Glad someone else said that. I'm sort of tired of hearing how this coin collecting stuff is falling, falling, falling. Not sure but I think this has been said for several hundred years or more now.
Sort of like every year the net if full of how there are no recent coins in circulation. Or want to buy some unsearched coins? I just inherited these so what should I do?
I've said this almost every year that I've been collecting and although some coins have dropped in price, many more have gone up, up, up.
I still remember back in the 40's my friends said don't waste time collecting coins, those will never be worth anything. Gee, were they wrong?

 

This is my strategy..The tricky part is figuring when to unload some bullion and buy collectibles. At this point, I'm sitting on my common silver, thinking it still has significant upside, Jon Nadler notwithstanding..

 

Amen. I'm glad I bought my St Gaudens when I did years ago...

 

My strategy is exactly opposite. I don't understand anybody selling material which is appreciating to acquire material that is depreciating. It makes no sense to me.

Nightowl

 

Actually, I'm feeling it in both areas right now.

 

Numismedia price guide. Actually the last one sold on Heritage sold for 4X Numismedia.

 

*IF* the current trends continue, you are exactly correct - obviously.

However, some folks feel - right or wrong - that certain trends won't last forever. For them, selling bullion to buy collector coins (with numismatic premium) is a classic example of "sell high, buy low".

 

Exactly..

 

When folks ask "Which coins are going up ?", it's natural to respond with a very specific date / grade i.e. 1911-D $20 MS65. Same when asking "which coins are sleepers ?"

Personally, I don't think that way. I tend to see numismatic collector coins, not bullion / commodity coins.

And for those, it's not issue by issue - it's specimen by specimen.

It's the individual coin that counts - not whether it's a 1909-SVDB MS63 RD PCGS.

Strong coins sell for strong money, and I guarantee you some exceptional coins are selling for more now than historical highs. Here's a coin in the current Heritage Houston auction - still on - one which is already bid above historical highs, and may go higher :

http://coins.ha.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=1132&Lot_No=503

It's at $1035 right now; two years ago the same issue / variety* sold for $862.50. That's a 20% increase - in a down market !

Is this coin running high because it's a sleeper, and suddenly the world is crazy about 1833 25c AU55 PCGS ? No.

It's high because someone believes it's an exceptional specimen.

That said, there are some good buys to be had in auctions because it's true - prices on the whole are down. Buy low ! Buy the coin, not the issue !




* When using auction records for these older Federal period coins, don't just look at the table of values. Check each coin to verify it's the same die marriage (variety) as the coin up for bids. Otherwise, you're comparing apples to oranges.