Are rare coin values falling?

I keep reading this as it is posted by certain forumites. Is that reflected in the greysheet prices or auction results? I am asking anyone here to give thoughts on this but I would especially like an in depth long post with some serious facts (but anything would be appreciated). Thanks

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

This wont be in depth like you requested but...While not all segments of the rare coin market move in unison, generally speaking, a number of areas of the market hit their recent peaks more than a year ago. And many coins/types are selling for a lot less -20% or greater declines - now than they were then.

 

I notice the 1885-CC Morgan's on Heritage are going down in value. Good example 85's CC's are now going for $890 max where before they averaged at about $925.. So yeah, this is for Morgans, maybe more coins are following this trend too. Examples would be great.

 

I'd have to say it's a function of the economy. Due to the downturn quite a bit of people are down on their luck and will do what they must to liquidate.

PG

 

Not to be a bother but could you list a few?

 

Lots of MS type coins - Barber, Seated, Capped Bust. Proof type coins as well.

 

Ok I'm just going to say it. I was hoping that Doug would take this question and hit it out of the park. He has mentioned this several times and I wanted to get his take on it.

 

thanks I'll look at those.

 

True, they might be going down......but for how long. The lowering in value is part of the economy. Right now, the economy is in retraction. As people pay off their loans and debts and stop making new loans and debts, the money supply is decreasing. Less money means each dollar is worth more, and hence the lowering of prices. However, governments around the world have issued trillions of dollars. If that money isn't absorbed some how some time when the economy picks up, you can bet inflation will result. When that happens, everything will be more expensive.....including your coins that are currently declining in value.

P.S. Also consider that as people loss their jobs and have less money, the market is losing participants. When the economy picks up, it is likely these players will get back into the game, making the demand vs. supply go up. Another bullish sign.

 

In my opinion, just my opinion, so value it as you wish, the 1885 CC Morgan and many other Morgan dollars, should never be used in the same sentence with the word 'rare'.
Condiering that the majority of the mintage was sold by the GSA in the 1970's there is no way that it is (or ever will be) considered rare.

 

I really don't care about speculations, graphs, stories in the news, or even prices in places like the grey sheets. I go to coin shows about 2 to 4 times a Month. Coin stores frequently. If any coin prices are falling, I sure wish someone would tell all the dealers at those shows. Just yesterday at a coin show I noticed some dealers were actually using the Red Book's price ranges for coins. One even higher in prices. An example was he had 3 1984 Lincoln Cent Double Ear coins for $400 each. He did say for a steady customer he would be willing to drop that price to about $350. A 16D Mercury Dime in AU50 for $9,200. Several other of his coins too were just uterly rediculous.
Regarless of anything, coin prices are just not dropping around here.

 

Certain proof-like coins have dropped a bit. This is consistent with, and a subset of, Mark's observation of lowered values in MS Type.

 

In addition to considering comments on this thread, also take a look at major auction results.

In general, exceptional coins have held their value pretty well. I have seen several individual specimens, strong for the grade, sell for above historical highs. I know, because I bid on 'em and came up short ! :vanish:

Coins which are average, average minus, or "everyday" coins have not fared as well.

 

Those graphs are useful and tell a story. Thanks, Doug !

It's important to "do the math" and not just let the visual appeal dominate. In the graph above, they chose to scale the graph such that it fills the box - as opposed to having the y-scale start at zero, they moved it up to 68,000. Some might say that's misleading and makes things look worse than they are.

That graph shows a one-year high of 73,000 and a low of 68,000 - a drop of 5,000, which is less than 7%. That performance is not too shabby considering what happen to stocks and home prices ! How many mutual funds dropped only 7% ?

A drop of 7% in the worst recession in 70 years seems like pretty strong performance.

Consult other graphs and see what they say in terms of drop as a percentage of original value.

 

It seems when collectors are selling their collections at major auctions, they might need the money to pay other bills so their reserve are lower, but coin dealer's sell prices haven't fallen as much. To me some of the dealer's sell prices are unrealistic at today's market

 

I've ran across a lot of coins lately on ebay that are listed at above NGC's price guide. Usually NGC is high. But I've never seen as many as I have lately that are listed above their guide. If you look around and pick your spots, there's some good deals to be had. Some you can tell just look too cheap.

As for currency, I spoke on the phone with a well known dealer concerning a certain higher dollar (4 digit price tag) obsolete bank note they have listed. I asked if the price was negotiable. (It should be VERY negotiable.)

I was somewhat rudely told "there is currently a 12.5% discount on notes at that price level, that that's as good as it's going to get and the discounts will be going away at the end of the year."

I said I had noticed it and that's nice, but I mentioned that I had seen the same note sell on Heritage for between 4 to 600 in the past year and that's with a BP!! He didn't care. No budging. And this is on a very uncommon, not commonly collected or known, (a.k.a hard to re-sell) type of bank note. No interest in selling it. He says the market for them has nowhere to go but up and his prices are reasonable. So it looks like I won't be buying and he won't be selling.

The economy has been in the dumps for several years. It's not easy selling anything in any hobby right now. Very very tough. The probem for consumers is, stuff can only get so cheap. If people/dealers can only sell stuff at a loss, people just won't sell. The only people selling will be the ones that are forced to and maybe a good deal could be had.

I think something has to give. Either the economy picks up and gets better or dealers will be forced to drop prices further to move anything as this drags on. Unless they really don't need to (as my case above) and then they will just be sitting on inventory waiting for a better day.

 

I'm sure there's a lot of truth to that.

And yes, some auctions have brought good money - Dan Holmes Early Dates stands out - but these days auctions are a good place to look for good material at good (i.e. lower) prices.

Someone please comment on this... I think there is somewhat less really good material in major auctions these days. Not a huge change, but unmistakable.

If that's so, tell me what you think about this - the best material tends to be held by more astute collectors. They tend to have more knowledge, experience, contacts, and inside information. When the market drops, and auctions are bringing lower prices, they withhold some of their better material.

What's more, they tend to be wealthy and are less affected by recession. The best coins were luxuries all along, and there's no pressing reason to sell them into a down market.

If true, that has a buffering or stabilizing effect on prices, since less material is available. With stocks, people tend to have a "herd instinct"; they panic and dump their shares. With coins, not so much.

With stocks, enormous amounts of wealth is invested by people who know nothing about stocks. With coins, the big money is smarter.

Anyway, I'm just rambling. Any thoughts ?

 

This might true for a very small segment of the rare coin market, but on a whole I would have to disagree. Most who can afford rare coins to begin with weren't all that effected by the slumping economy, for the most part. If we're talking non-rare coins and the average collector, then yes, I have seen a slowdown in buying and even lower prices realized, as the average collector has probably been effected financially lately.
Guy~