Seems nothing has changed in past 20 years!

Being bored, I have had lots of time to glance over my vast library of the UK "Coin News" magazines. They have a section on current market trends/ auctions prices realized. From my first 2002 magazine to 2021 March edition/ its always the same headlines/ prices soar/ records smashed/ this cannot keep on/ prices are bound to crash.....well/ they where right about the first two....dead wrong on latter. Probably by 2041/ it will be the same ole story on and on.....

 

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I have always viewed these trends as the surface of the ocean: shifting and swelling above, but with complex, competing undercurrents.

External economic conditions often have a major impact on coin prices, as well as with other collectables and holdings, such as real estate (obviously). However, while these economic factors, such as inflation, deflation, gyrating exchange rates, the concentration of wealth or other factors, such as war or social upheaval can often dictate the demand, or lack of demand, for certain coins, such as silver and gold, there has been, during the decades that I have been a collector, other influences, such as coin hoards hitting the market, the marketing of certified coins, the promoting of certain coin types, often aimed more at the general public, and the growing middle class in developing countries. All of these factors, I believe, go into the boiling pot that we know as the market place for ancients and other coins.

I think good deals, even bargains are still possible, but it takes knowledge and some luck to secure such coins.

 

I really do not know. Since I have started collecting ancient coins I have gone through a number of cycles which could be characterized by either
A. I bet you wish you sold all your coins and got into...…. or
B. I bet you are really glad your not in...…. and are "investing" in your coins.
I don't think I really ever saw my collection as an investment and so far I have managed to ignore any of this commentary and plod along collecting my coins. I cannot say that I really understand what drives the market whether it be the macro economy or even our rather small ancient coin market. I find the market in Greek coins much more susceptible to volatility than the Roman and sometimes a fad can inflate or deflate the prices for a particular group of coins.
I always like to think that I buy a coin because there is something about it that I like. Like this one
Antoninus Pius Bil Tetradrachm Alexandria 139-140 AD Obv Bareheaded bust right draped. Rv. Dikaiosyne seated left Emmett 1377/2 Milne 1616. 14.49 grms 25 mm Photo by W. Hansen When I bought this coin back in 1987 really nice looking coins from this mint were very unusual. A friend of mine brought this coin back from Ottawa and I knew I had to own it. Eventually we worked out a deal in which I paid about 2 to 3 times what these coins would normally go for to get it.

 

Great post.
I won’t be surprised if the market adjusts after society opens up again, but I’m not as sure it will do as I was half a year ago. Right now, important stock/asset market influencers like Ray Dalio are out saying that «cash is trash», and that people need to find tangible assets to get into rather than holding cash. This influences the coin market, and all collectors markets. When at the same time people that have had good earnings on stocks sell and take the profit, in fear of a much talked about market correction, this also affects the collector markets. Confidence in government FIAT currency seems to be reduced too, and understandably so.
Those that have been buying coins at 1.5-5x 2018 prices won’t sell low unless they have to. (And chances are that if they have to, the rest of us won’t have money to buy.)

I don’t consider my coins as investments. A coin really can’t be an investment, because they don’t produce or generate wealth, like a company. I still consider prescious metals a useful storer of value, though. And I believe people will be interested in the ancient world in the forseeable future too, so I consider my coins as a form of «saving», but most of all a fun and interesting hobby.

Although I find it unlikely that the level of growth in prices will be as strong as last year, I am pretty sure that coin prices will be higher in 2031 than in 2021. But it would be great if prices fell a little bit from the current level, at least. It’s getting hard to keep up.

 

I disagree on this point. A certain number of 'investors' have to be actively trading or they don't consider themselves 'investors'. There may be money to be gained in 'day trading' but there are also people who play and lose. Some of these coins will resurface when the investment crowd starts going on cruises again. Come to think of it, maybe they will 'have to' sell low because their trophy wife tells them to??? Some roller coasters go up longer than others but rather few go into orbit. I may not live to see the plunge. I may. You?

I see the word needed here as 'speculation'. 'Investments' go up or down for two reasons. The company may make a profit they share with stockholders or there are enough people betting not that the company will do well but that there will be a lot of demand for the stock in the future. Coins don't make a profit through hard work so the question remains whether there will continue to be people willing to buy for even higher prices. Time will tell.

 

Time will tell on the first point, and I’m hopeful that we both will be around to evaluate
I agree that «speculation» is the correct word, if the main reason for buying is to sell at a higher price. (That doesn’t fit for coin dealers though, I won’t call them «speculators»)

Let’s hope 2021 brings some fancy and fashionable cruises that flush out some coins on the market at decent prices. I’m all for that.
That said, I think the supply of nice coins is quite good. It would seem that quite a few collectors, myself included, take the opportunity to sell coins that they are willing to let go. It’s the demand side that pushes prices up at this point. If the good prices realized increases supply further, I guess that will affect prizes too. At least in theory

 

I would say this, the speculators/ profit takers are limited to the"Bullion Investing Site" on CT.

The most famous collections like the Farouk/ Eliasburg/ Norweb/ Garrett/ Paramount/ Tyrant etc., where / are being formed by men/ women with good taste/ love of numismatics/ history behind their treasures/ and lots of money. None, ever collected for profit.

Of course, when a non collector hears about someone having a collection/ first thing that pops out of their mouth, "How much is your coin/ collection, worth?"

 

I don't normally view my coins as an investment, but the skyrocketing prices may make one alter that assessment. My main activity is just watching the collection grow. I do know that even with high prices given consignment fees and the necessity of auctioneers earning a tidy or even substantial profit that the wholesale price still would not be more than was "invested" in the collection, or certainly would not be very significant in most cases.

So, I plan to liquidate in order to simplify matters for my inheritors, unless a relative steps forward with an interest in continuing the collection.

 

Hello CT-ers,
I like enjoy my coins and derive esthetic satisfaction from their designs, including the Ancients, Mexican & U.S. mintages.
However, I also like the idea that they may possibly become More valuable, than Less.
So far my limited number of U.S. Key & semi-Key coin's values have remained static, whereas both the ancients & Mexican gold coins have increased in value.
Really not complaining here, just saying,
J.T.

 

My way to be able to collect, has been buying and selling. As the collection builds up, I have at times sold 5 neat coins to get 1 nice coin. After doing that a couple of times, it’s possible to sell 5 nice coins to get 1 great coin. As this is buying and selling in the same market, the profit margin/loss becomes less important. All the money from selling coins goes into buying new ones.

 

This is my strategy too: I sell coins if they a) no longer "fit" with my goals, b) no longer "bring me joy" (a la Marie Kondo), or c) to make room for other purchases.

My enjoyment is far greater than the rate of inflation or the rate of return if I were to have invested the same money in stocks/etc. So, if I can get anywhere near what I paid for the coins as a trade-in value toward a new purchase, I'm happy.

And if I can't and end up losing money on a sale, then so be it: it'll still be turned in to a better coin down the road and hopefully I'll have learned something to minimize the downside in the future.

 

My attitude toward collecting has always been frankly minimalist. If coins hold their value relative to inflation (or even lack thereof), over the long term, I'm happy. Obviously, the primary function of any coin of historic significance is Not as an investment. And the people who approach them as such are the ones who mess up the market for the rest of us. Boo, Hiss!
...Sorry if that was too obvious to be of any real help....

 

It's been discussed many times already, but I'm not getting tired of it But markets crashing downs can tend to hit some people more then other people. The financial crisis left some extremely wealthy, and the current crisis seems to have same effect. Inequality on the rise? At least where I live, the difference between wealthy and not so wealthy is expending each year.
Prices soaring in coins can be a temporary effect; if covid ends, people can spend their money on other things again. Perhaps not, perhaps many do now see it as an interesting investment. Will that then lead to a crash?
Me, as a sort of minimalist collector and spender, have noticed that the offerings I tend to target, have risen quite a lot. These are not the auctioneers however you might seek out. Perhaps the rising prices on the high end do have consequences for the low end too? Or are there simply more collectors coming into the market, due to covid?

I also collect this way, even though my collection is very humble in size. So I'm not able to sell too many coins often (but be sure to check out the next AMCC auction though ;-)).... And I've been deemed collector-unworthy on this board once, for selling some coins. Interesting, isn't it?

 

I met a guy last week who turned out to "like coins" too, and then it turned out that he was an "investor".
He started with the Morgans a couple of years ago and moved on to the ancients and bitcoin last year. He has no interest in history or art. He likes them slabbed and shiny. Too bad bitcoin isn't shiny. I think I have a business idea...

 

@Limes, your first point is especially resonant. Since the '80's, each of the regularly-scheduled American recessions has ended with a net increase in the concentration of wealth. Eventually, you get the impression that this pattern is integral to contemporary capitalism. ..."Trickle-down"? Depends on what's trickling down. On you.

 

Nah, we won’t let anybody tell us what or how to collect, Limes. That’s our own business

When I started collecting, my albums felt so empty, and I just wanted a lot of coins to fill them up with.. Later I felt I was losing control of my collection because there were so many coins in it. I think robinjojo said it earlier: ebb and flow. As taste and interest develops too, it’s natural to lose some weight from time to time, and trade into some coins that actually work when you want to buy a new obsolete one Oh my, what a wonderfully silly hobby!

I consider our friend Ancient Joe a great coin man and collector. That goes for our friend Doug too. They have quite opposite collecting strategies, and I think there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

 

Thanks for replying. I'm not looking to start a discussion on the working of markets or anything (had some of those in the near past already!). It simply makes me sad to see those kinds of side effects, and I also seem to enjoy the hobby a bit less, due to the increasing prices. I'm just hoping the first will turn out okay for people and the second will prove to be temporary.

Yes, indeed! Collecting is evolutionary in that sense, that there are so many interesting coins out there and it's hard to predict but all the more interesting, to see where our individual collecting interests will take us next. In the beginning of my very short collecting era (just 6 years) it seems my interests have already shifted: from the nerva-antonine dynasty, to the imperatorial and early julio-claudio dynasty and now I catch myself eyeballing republican coins more (which is due to DonnaML for posting all those great republican denarii!). All Roman, though...
EDIT: just to be clear, a shift in interest doesn't mean I've sold off the coins collected due to a previous interest. And a new interest doesn't completey delete the old interest

 

My collecting is thwarted by the complete lack of new NewStyles coming onto the market and the ridiculous prices they are when they do.

 

I decided a few months ago that I would try the 'other' method again even though it has not always worked out for me in the past. I started going through my coins (actually their photos) selecting ones that no longer bring me joy. After that, I looked at those coins themselves and discovered that I am not a good photographer because I put back half of the ones I had selected as better looking than they were photogenic. The difference between my joy-free coins and Joe's is that there is a long line of people with money hoping against hope that he will set free a coin they want. I suspect that Joe's ten worst coins would be as good as my ten best but I'm not talking about disposing of my ten (or thousand) best but the other end. In fact there are quite a few people here who show coins regularly that are not as nice (attractive, high grade, interesting etc.) as my joy-free selections but many of them will not be buying my coins since they are not uncleaned or unidentified and they believe that I would not be disposing of anything worth having. That is a hard part for me. How can I advise you to purchase a coin from my cast-offs when I have been quite open about saying that they are not joy-bringers? If the coins I have found expendable are better than the eBay low enders but lack the thrill of a lottery ticket, neither of us will be happy with the deal. I know I have a few coins a few people here want but those are the ones that you will have to talk to my grandson about and hope they were not the ones on my eyes when I reached the Stygian shore. (Yes, you can take them with you.) It will be interesting to see the long term effect the current boon has on the market. Will it increase demand for all ancient coins or only the Joe-grade beauties? A long and steep rise in prices will have an effect driving low end collectors out of the hobby altogether. Their absence will have no effect on the market for the Joe-grade cast-offs but lessen the market for mine. I no longer bother looking a certain sellers' lists since it is a proven waste of time. I doubt I am the only one.

 

It's why I don't even bother with numismatic scandal rags. They are just the numismatic equivalent of those National Enquirer and Weekly World News.