Are all grades equal ?

Glad that we agree Mike but there are alot of collectors who are just starting out or who have been around awhile but do not know or understand all the details and of course there are those who just trust the grade that is listed as a standard. Now there is the old Adam Smith saying "let the buyer beware" but even with that there has to be a level of trust and consistency with the whole grading/selling system when dealing with the leading grader or graders or the whole foundation of coin collecting will crumble with perhaps only a minority of high end dealers and buyers being left.

 

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I don't tell my secrets

J/K...I don't think there is a way to do it consistently...just like I don't think there is a real MS/PF70....in my work with computers I have seen how it wouldn't work...that is why I don't think it would work...in setting up computers I see how easy it is to make them do anything I say or as they do sometime nothing I say!...

Untill WE the collectors come together and agree on a grading guide (and I don't see that happing) we are just going to have to grade ourselves and trust ourselves...and not go by what other say.

Speedy

 

Gresham said, "bad money pushes out good money". Is it also true that "bad grades push out good grades"?

What I got from that article is: Be wary of a coin slabbed as, say, AU58 (for example) – because it’s very possible it was graded AU55 a dozen times or more, before it got lucky. A coin graded as an attractive AU58 has probably been cracked at least once, and will likely be cracked again, until it becomes a low end MS60, etc.

What might help is a voluntary 'fourth party grade auditor'. Which is where a national organization (I will not mention names) could do a great deal of benefit to the hobby, though it is likely the market would not give very much cooperation. The idea being that the ANACS, NGC, PCGS, etc. has random selections tested against an independent audit firm. I’m sure the firm could even employ the same standards as used by the respective TPG, which they are auditing. Point being, when people say grading is subjective – and it is – then shouldn’t the professional opinions be tested once in a while?


Say a third party grading service maintains a certain percentage agreement with an independent fourth party auditing service… with that, they can add that auditing services stamp of approval to their slabs. If not, they don’t, and they can continue to do business just as they do today.

 

[They've already tried computer grading twice - it failed miserably both times. Don't get me wrong - I'm not against the idea. I'd be strongly in favor of it - if it would work. But I don't believe it ever will.]

"The successful person makes a habit of doing what the failing person doesn't like to do." - Thomas Edison. Twice is a start, after all, Edison tried almost a 1000 differant materials before he had success with the light bulb.

The reason why computer grading failed before was because of the means of collecting data. That is, how to you compare submission "B" against database "A" (one coin or a collected database of the same coin in the same grade providinng a true median).

This is the key, the collection of (x,y,z) data on the submitted coin so it can compared against the given. The greater the differance, the lower the technical grade.

Laser scanners, especially the new linear lasers can scan and collect much more data faster than ever before. They have been introduced to other marketplaces and work! Here's a laser scan of Washington:



The purpose of the computer is to collect data and compare it. (Let's skip conspiracy theories for the moment by the dooms day people). Since laser scanners have improved expodentially, It is only a matter of time when somebody smarter than me in numismatics will figure out how to scan and compare data so that coins can receive a true, unbiased, technical grade.

It has to be better than some grader assessing your coin at 4:55 PM on a Friday in 10 to 15 seconds, only to receive them 90 days later...if you are lucky.

 

Computer grading WILL be a fact of life. The only question is when, not if. Technology cannot be stopped. And the hobby will adjust, survive, and perhaps even improve.

 

And I disagree 100%...thats like saying we will find that we came from monkeys one day...
If it does it will have to be after collectors like myself are dead and gone...

And BTW....Technology CAN be stopped...but I won't go into that...as it would be an article.

Speedy

 

who knows what the future will bring? Perhaps someone will develop a computerized system that proves all the naysayers wrong - who here could count how many times that has happened in history?

This still does not solve the problem. Today, you go to a coin dealer, and there is you and the dealer - and two different opinions on a particular coin's grade. Introduce an electronic grading system, then you will have three - just like today. It doesn't change anything.

You might as well introduce AU58.54363000000 - but maybe people will crack it open, because they might be able to acheive an AU58.55102000000 - of course, that's on a 57 point match which provides a 98.9% reliability up to three places past the decimal, which is nothing compared to an AU58.54363000000 graded on a 84 point match - it has a 99.4% reliability at four places past the decimal!

Either way, since I don't collect slabs, but I think you have to focus on the problem before you apply a presumed solution.

 

Good point, excellent argument...

 

came from monkeys? Heck, with some of us, you don't have to go back very far.

 

And I guess (know) that you disagree with me 100% but think about it....do you want a computer to drive a car....build a building....and do many other things....no...and we wouldn't want them to grade coins either.

Speedy

 

I'm ready to chuck it all and go back to #2 pencils and a piece of paper...that's how we should address technological advances.

I am sure buggy-whip manufacturers used the same logic when automobiles competed against them in the transportation arena. A machine?? I rather keep my horse!

"Pretty much everything will come to him who hustles while he waits. I believe that restlessness is discontent, and discontent is merely the first necessity of progress."
- Thomas Edison

 

I can't believe you just went from Danny DeVito to Thomas Edison in the same post.


I cry foul.

 

"Other People's Money" was probably one of the best business speaches delivered by DeVito's character...

"Amen!...Amen!...ladies and gentlemen, where I come from we say 'amen' after a prayer and what you just heard was nothing more than a prayer!"

 

I understand that many commercial jets are now landed by computer without or with minimal pilot assistance. That ought to keep you up a few nights in a row before your next flight. Sort of makes coin grading look easy.

 

I don't fly!!!!....and I have nooo want too either...I much rather stay on the good on US or A and on the dirt of good ol' KY!

Speedy

 

Many good points. I think computer grading is inevitable. First generation (successful) grading will be a whole number from 1 to 70 with 70 being a computer generated perfect reference. Later generations will have grades like "MS63.125 or MS64.875" The technology will eventually become affordable and portable to the collector. Example: CD player in 1984...$500, today...$5 at a tag sale. Each coin would have a signature image. "Crackouts" would be no more as the possible damage (invisible to human eyes) that occurs in the process would be detectible by the computer and lower toe grade. I'm working on "Securegrade," an anti-virus program for your future "ANA Hand Grader." "If we came from monkeys, why are there still monkeys?"