Chances for a 69 to upgrade to 70?

Suppose you send a recently minted coin to NGC or PCGS, and it comes back graded 69. You look and look with magnification and can’t find a flaw. So, any flaw the grader(s) saw has to be tiny or imagined. What are the chances of a 70 if you crack it out and send it back? Is the cost worth it?

Cal

 

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I'd be interested in a statistical look at that. I wonder how much it differs from browning motion.

 

How many different ways did you tilt it under a halogen light to try to find that tiny pinprick in the frost?

 

Depends on the coin.
And it's possible that it could come back as MS-68.
Or are we talking Proof?

 

the "flaw" usually comes down to the luster or depth of strike of the coin, which keeps it out of 70.

I'm actually a believer that they just randomly call things 69 and 70, as a percentage of what they look at... hahahaha, it's a joke but you have to think like that in some cases like when the 69 is a head scratcher on what was the imperfection to hold it back.
I have to assume this 69 or a 70 is a modern mint product anyways because it happens so rarely otherwise.

Maybe just a slightly inferior strike, or a slightly muted luster, something like that when no other flaws can be identified, that would be my guess as to why some coins get tagged at 69 instead of a 70.

as far as "is it worth cracking out and resubmitting", it depends on the particular coin in question what a 69 and what a 70 sells for and how much the fees are and of course, how many times you have to resubmit it to get it in a 70 slab.

 

The only thing you can be talking is Proof. MS-70 graded coins are rare as hen's teeth from what I have seen.

It might be an interesting study, but in the mean time, you would be making the grading services rich with your money.

I think that the grading services control the number PR-70 coins they put out to control the price. At first first they limit the quantity. They they get more liberal as time passes.

Remember that all you need is one mint caused blip on the surface of the coin to make it a PR-69. It can be as small as a pinhead sized pit in the field.

 

Simply said, “it depends.” Some moderns, it does not matter. Others have huge jumps in price for 70s, versus 69s. Check prices for specific coins, and see if it is worth it.

 

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There’s not a whole lot of them that would be worth the price to try again. Even on the ones that are worth it can happen especially if you use the other company, but the chances are low.

 

Lets stop this rumor right here. Normal submitters get 70s all the time when deserved, I’ve gotten numerous before as well as numerous 69s. The big dealers won’t be worried they won’t all get 70s, they already know they won’t all get 70s. If they want 2k of them they’ll send in at least 4K coins. No one gets a 70 every single time unless you could people that have only sent in like 1 or 2 coins and stopped

 

I was feeling a little crabby this morning. You are correct. I was erroneously spouting off. I'll fix it.

 

No worries, it was more for everyone else as I do know there are many that actually believe that

 

No idea how true it is or not, but I've heard with bulk submissions of ASEs for the tv shows and stuff, they just select like 30% of the monster box and give them 70s and the rest get 69s. I think this is a myth though LOL.
They do sell the 69s for like $60 and the 70s for like $100-$150. make a few dollars extra for a special label, ect.

And worst case they can dump it all for bullion since they are getting the "dealer rate" on them from the mint anyways. I mean the bullion dealers are between $17K and 19K for a 500 coin box. so $34-$38 a coin, and a SAE in silver melt is around $25 or so an oz, so there's thousands to be made of the monster box itself before even doing grading and 69s and 70s. not sure how much they pay the mint for it in their "authorized dealer" deal, but maybe they make $9-13 each before their bulk grading deal for grading a few thousand at a time. Mint probably sell them to them for $2 over spot each. worst case, they can offload the boxes on other authorized bullion dealers for $500-$1000 more than they paid for it when the mint is backed up probably.

the tv shows aren't losing in any way shape or form. like PCGS with bulk submissions, "each holdered coin will be charged a grading fee of $14. Coins that do not meet your requested minimum grade will be returned unholdered with a $2 reject fee." and set the minimum grad at 69. so as a mint "dealer" they are likely getting them around $2 above spot, so $27 each, JM bullion selling raw for $38-$40 as an example.
Home shopping getting them graded, selling for $60 or $100 depending on the grade they get, and have about $41 or so invested per coin whether it's a 69 or a 70.

It's quite a racket I suppose.... with silver eagles even if they did get some that don't make the 69 cut, the dealer markups still have profit on it for the tv shows to take the chance and be into it for around $29 a SAE.

I don't think they are worried at all about not getting 70s and they will get whatever they need with enough quantity submitted, and even if they didn't they still make about $6-8 more on the 69s than the bullion dealers selling raw. the 70s are just icing on the cake. and an extra $40 or more in their pockets each.

worst case, they're into them for right around ungraded bullion price from the majority of the dealers, maybe they have to wait a little or sell a little cheaper than their $60 per MS69 on an "unbelievable special" and sell it for $49.99.....

 

It is an internet rumor that refused to die

 

As others have stated, it would be nice if the Public had some idea of what separates an MS69 from an MS70. Is it one of many things or, at these high grades, is there a single focal point (e.g. Luster)?

 

Can be anything. Tic, milk spot, scratch, heavy toning will generally eliminate a 70, finger print etc. Some of the problem is that the spotting and things like that can happen after grading where they can only grade what they can see in front of them at the time of grading

 

True...any of those things can knock an MS70 down to an MS67/68, but I often put an MS69 next to an MS70 and can't tell the difference. It would be nice to know what criteria the TPGs use to make the 69/70 determination. Is there some characteristic the TPGs focus in on to make the call?

It's been posted on CT that TPG graders average six (6) seconds per coin. I find that hard to believe, but I can't argue with the experts. Still, If I can't tell the difference between an MS69 and an MS70 in six (6) hours, I find it hard to believe they can do it in six (6) seconds...without having some specific criteria in mind.

 

I have a 1999 Washington commemorative 1/4 ounce gold that is in an MS69 holder. I think it is the most beautiful coin I own. I have studied that coin every way from Sunday for years and have been unable to discern why it may not have achieved MS70. Doesn't matter though. It is a study in perfection to look at.

 

That's another myth. There's no shot clock they take the time they need. That's just people guessing from the average done a day based off the hours in the day. Most coins really only take a few seconds anyways, but the finished numbers go by when they ship. There's a lot more that goes into how many get "finished" a day than just grading time

 

I have two modern proofs that recently graded PR69. One was a fractional gold Brittania; one a US Pt coin. I can't find a fault with them and have compared them with similar coins that graded PR70. Could be there is a dinged reed on the edge which can't be seen when the coin is in a slab.

When I attended grading classes in Long Beach, PCGS personnel stated that their graders average 100 coins per hour. I would guess throughput is fastest for modern releases and slowest for uncommon coins, like patterns, or variety attribution. And I would guess the least experienced graders do the modern releases.

The risk of these coins going down to PR68 if resubmitted is very low. I've never seen a 68 coin where I couldn't see a ding or soft-struck area. These coins appear flawless.

Cal