OK, now that I have already introduced my self, I have a question. Like I previusly said, I reserected my coin collection from when I was a kid thousands of years ago. I have mostly pennies, nickles, dimes and quarters, 400 in total I have some pretty good coins, like flying eagles, Mercury dimes and silver dollars. When I was a kid I worked on filling those coin books. You know all the various mintages for each year. Of curse not all books all filled. Now that I have a little money to spend I am thinking to go after the years I don;t have a coin for. Some of my holes are not so expensive to fill and others are pretty pricey. I am thinking about spending about $400 for this next step. My question is, should I go for the more inexpensive variety or get a couple of more valuable ones? Inexpensive to me is less than $10 or $50 and coins around $50 to $100 or the ones I am wondering about.
It is almost always better to buy the keys or semi-keys before you buy the common coins. The keys tend to appreciate in value much faster and many times will actually pay for the common years in appreciation value alone. Hope this helps. Ryan
That strategy works very well and is the usual advice given. But - it assumes an upward trend in the coin market. What do you do when you have a downward trend in the coin market ? Which is what we have now and have had for a year or so.
By key or semi key you mean the more valuable ones? Thanks for the replies. I understand both arguments. It sounds like it may be a good time to buy coins?
For the most part yes. Or is it ? Most bear coin markets last for 8 to 10 years. We have have had 1. If prices drop another 50%, and they very well may - you still going to think it was a good time to buy ?
I think we are seeing/nearing the bottom now, unless another 9-11 happens. If it gets to much worse I will be using my coins for groceries.
Are you saying that because of the economy ? You shouldn't. Most often the economy has nothing to do with the coin market. Take the '90s for example - that was the biggest boom time we have ever seen for the economy - but the coin market was in toilet for the entire decade. In 2000 and 2001 the economy hit the skids - the stock market blew up in their faces - and yet the coin market took off like a rocket. One has nothing to do with the other - the coin market runs of its volition.
That makes sense. Shows how much I know. Back to my question though was common coins or keys as someone referred to it Maybe there is no right answer, just a preference on the buyers side. Anyhow I really appreciate all of the advice and I think this is a great forum.
Hate to argue, but I wish someone would point me to all the coins that are off by 50% in this 'bear' market. Like many others have said, I'm just not seeing it. In the past year I have seen some prices down maybe around 10%. Most others unchanged. If things aren't selling, they just don't sell. Prices aren't dropping. GD, have you ever identified the beginning of a bull market before it went into effect? Or do you always hold the opinion that we're in a bear market and it's getting worse? When would be a good time to buy a coin according to you? Right now we have the worst unemployment levels since the Great Depression. Using the old way of calculating and taking into account the underemployed and people that have dropped off the stat sheet, totals are close to 16-20%. Most of the rest are struggling. If somebody can't work out a good deal on a coin now, (or anything for that matter) I don't know what time they should be waiting for. Not that there's any real hurry in the next year or two.
You're saying the amount of disposable income the general population has available at a given time does not affect the market?
Normally it is best to buy the keys first as was said - and for the reasons stated. I wa sonly pointing out that right now might not be a good time to buy any coins because prices have been dropping and will likely continue dropping. I am saying that it would probably be better to wait and buy coins, common and keys alike, later after prices have reached the bottom. Of course determining where that bottom is is the tricky part.
I will take baby steps. Last thing I want to do is waste money. After all, I'm just now getting back into coin collecting and need to re-learn all the stuff. I thank everyone for their input. As I do this I remember when I was a kid how hard it was to get more of the key dates. Now that I have a few disposable dollars, it's a different matter. I can just see telling my wife I want to spend $5,000 on a 1909 penny....and then the fight started.
Hello texmech, IMO it is all good advice that you have received here at CT. I believe you want to rekindle your collecting and there is no need to dwell on the investing angle. Just keep the money you spend in perspective because the coin market can go up & down. Here is a quote from Kanga last year: "Numismatics is a hobby for me. Prices only affect my buying. If prices go up, I won't be able to afford as many or as good coins. If prices go down, I'll be able to afford more or better coins. It's unlikely I will ever benefit dollar-wise from my collection. Whoever gets them in my will, will be the beneficiary. My benefit is the pleasure of collecting and appreciating" Kanga (2008) I recommend that you spend your money on a couple problem-free key or semi-key coins. You can then match the key coin's condition as you fill the common holes with coins in similar condition. I'd like to stress "Problem-free". Avoid getting key coins that have obvious cleaning problems or coins that just don't look right. In the end, you will want all the coins to match in the collection. Please post the coins you get. Very best regards, collect89
It's kind of hard to miss. Do you ever read any of the coin magazines ? Apparently not, or you would see all of the articles, auction reports, even the ads, with lower prices. Even the guys who write the Coin Values column in Coin World and the Coin Market column in Numismatic News, have been talking about how weak the market is and how much prices are dropping for 6 months now. And these 2 guys are the biggest bulls there are in the coin market. It has to get really bad before either of them even starts talking about prices dropping. Then of course you can read all the reports from CT members who have been going to the shows, both large and small, where they talk about how slow it has been, how few people have been attending the shows and how prices have been dropping. Then you could access all of the coin news and market reports found on-line like those written by Laura Sperber of Legend Coins. She's been talking about the market downturn as long as I have - over a year now. And there are plenty of other similar reports. You can also check the coin indexes. What does this look like to you - sure doesn't look like an upwards trend, or even a stable trend to me. This is the market as a whole. This is the market for MS gold - This is the Mint State type coin index - This is the Morgan and Peace dollar index - This is the Key Dates and Rarities index - Now with all due respect, do any of those look to have an upward trend to you ? And if you don't call that prices dropping - what would you call it ? The only thing I can tell you guys who say they don't see the downturn is that you either need to get out more, start reading more, or find differnt places to buy. I sure have. Back in 2000 I started about the market showing signs of moving upwards. By 2001 I was writing about and telling everyone to start buying pretty much everything, in particular gold. I bought gold at $250. Now you haven't knowm me for that long, but there are plenty here who have. And I'll bet they can remember quite well when I was bullish on the market. They can also probably remember when I said that the Morgan and Peace dollar market was peaking back in 2004 and dropped like a hot rock until 2007. You cna find those predictions right here on this forum if you care to take the time to look. Here's a picture of what happened - A good time to buy in my opinion is when things start to settle down. We will probably have what is known is a "dead cat bounce" this fall and winter. The market will turn upwards a little, but it won't last long and it will continue its donward slide is my prediction. Things will probably stabalize in a year, maybe 2, and it might even last 10 years but I doubt it. Those indexes I posted will show the when, the buy time. So will reports in the coin mags and auction results. Buying in a dropping market is as they say - like trying to catch a falling knife. You may catch the knife, but you are almost certainly going to get cut in the process. Wait for stability, that's when to buy and not before. That is all very true. But don't forget that history shows us that the Great Depression was a boom time for time for the coin collecting hobby. Prices started moving upwards - not down. Don't ask me why, I can't explain it. All I know is that what the record shows. Now I get requests from various people all the time asking my advice on a particular coin or if they should buy or wait. The requests can range from common every day stuff to the very expensive stuff. There are even several people who will rarely buy any coin without asking my opinion first. You can ask them what my track record is - if they wish to volunteer the info that is. I keep who they are and what they buy private myself. But not long ago a member here on Coin Talk asked me about buying a somewhat expensive coin. It was the beginninmg of June this year. Here is portion of my response to him - Now granted, those are high dollar coins. But if that isn't a 50% drop then I'd like to know what is. I used those examples because they were readily available in Coin World in one of their auction reports. Even inexpensive stuff is doing the same thing if you care to take the time to look it up for yourself. Do you think I just make this stuff up or something ? The market is dropping folks, and dropping big time. It's all there to see, all ya have to do is look.
Wow, great responses. This sounds so much like all the other indrustries out their including mine, it stinks. I would not spend big money until I get more up to speed and see more positive remarks in forums like this. For the time being I will just, "kick the tires". Like the quote said, I do not intend to try and make a profit on anything. I just want to ADD to my collection. I like history and I like older things with value. I even hang on to old PC's, vinyl records, newspapers with history making headlines, etc. because this is for me and has value. I probably will just some of the common coins in the start because there is not so much risk there. Great community here, very helpful.
Thanks for taking the time with that informative post. I admit, I've never seen those price index charts. I never use PCGS's site. I couldn't agree more that prices should be falling!! It's just that when you watch ebay, heritage or talk to individuals in person, a lot of times, it's a whole different reality. Maybe it's just because some people don't realize how tough the market is actually getting? Some dealers do but don't care and would rather hold? I'll be going to another show this October. I have high expectations for being able to deal and negotiate some decent prices. In the back of my mind though, I have my doubts. It is my hope that it's not busy. But I haven't been to a show yet that wasn't so packed you could hardly get through.
I agree with Doug. I think we're just at the beginning of a long coin bear market. I've seen prices and sales drop at multiple large coin dealers shops over the past 6 months, to prices that beat any percentage lost I've ever seen in the market since I've collected coins. I was there just a few days ago when an 1893s Morgan NGC G4 sold for just over $800. If thats not a sign of a downward trend I don't know what is. Guy~
