Will the cent last another 10 years.

I am not a psychic but I think that within the next 10 years we will have the following (or something real close to it):

1c - Will still be produced, but only for Proof and Mint sets. There will be no more business strikes and everything will be rounded up/down to the nearest 5 cents.

5c - Will become the lowest denomination coin in circulation.

10c - Will be redesigned either with a totally new obverse/reverse or the obverse will be redesigned along the style of the current nickel with a forward facing portrait.

25c - After the initial run of Parks quarters, the quarter will become the de-facto "circulating commemorative coin" with a two to four different designs each year (possibly related to each other or even totaly different topics). Obverse will remain Washington, but redone to match the "style" of the forward facing portrait.

50c - Like the 1c, this will only be produced for Proof and Mint sets.

$1 - By this time, the $1 bill will be history and the $1 coin will have totally replaced it.

I doubt if there will be a $2 coin or even discussion about it. If there was a call for it, then the $2 bill would be in use daily for business transactions. I do think that there will be a debate about replacing the $5 bill with a bi-metallic coin. They will use the same logic and arguments that are currently being used in the coin vs. banknote debate for the $1 banknote.

 

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Perhaps they could, but not with aluminum. What you're overlooking is the fact that the compositions of the clad coinage were very carefully chosen precisely to make sure that existing vending machines could take them. This is one reason for the complicated three-layer structure of the coins: it's making sure that they've got the same electrical resistance as a 90% silver coin, since that's one thing vending machines often check in order to reject slugs. Ditto with the Sacagawea dollar--the reason that there are 1999 SBAs is that the Mint didn't have the "golden" alloy ready soon enough, since they had to do extensive metallurgical testing to find a composition that would be very different in color from the SBAs but indistinguishable to a vending machine.

The zinc cents weren't handled so carefully, as rather few vending machines take them; those machines did have to be readjusted in order to accept the new cents. But the main reason why the aluminum cents were rejected in 1974 was a vending machine problem too: If you put a regular copper (or zinc) cent into a vending machine that doesn't accept pennies, it just drops into the coin return tray. But if you put an aluminum cent into such a machine, it's so lightweight that friction can stop it halfway through the mechanism. The machine is then jammed until a repairman comes to remove the coin. Some vending machine companies demonstrated this at a congressional hearing, and that's why we didn't get aluminum cents.

Unrelated note on half-dollars: There's been no change of policy on these; they're still a circulating denomination. It's just that there's so little demand for them that the Federal Reserve hasn't ordered any from the Mint since 2001. If the Fed ever runs low and needs more, then more will be struck and issued. Meanwhile, small quantities of ordinary-finish business strikes are still being produced every year for the Mint's bag and roll sales, in addition to the mint set and proof set coins.

 

I agree that it won't happen anytime soon...but it should. The only way to make the coin accepted is to discontinue the dollar bill. With dollar coin production up as it is now, it is the perfect time to stop printing the bill and force the public to use the coin. Once they started and the the coin became normal...it would be fine.

Once a dollar coin is in common use...if a $2 coin was thought to be necessary it would be easy to introduce.

 

I agree with you that the dollar coin should replace the dollar bill, but I don't like the idea of forcing the public to use them by stopping prouduction of the bill, then again, that's about the only way to really get them to circulate. Another problem I see is the countless vending machines that won't accept dollar coins, my grandpa owns two, neither of which accept dollar coins. I know my grandpa wouldn't be to keen on the idea of buying two new vending machines.

 

The one cent will be around for more than 10 yrs - the material used to make it might change, but it will be around. I think the mass public (and probably retailers) is too scared that everyone will round up and "gasp" cost them more money during the year. I can see the retailers crying now because to get if for less than 20 dollars would be 19.95 versus 19.99. LOL.

 

This is a great and constant debate, as well, one which has been lively here on CT in just the last week. I shared a New Yorker article from 2008 in another forum on the exact same issue for CamaroDMD when we were discussing the cents worth. A lot of the comments and questions here are reflected in this article. It's quite worth reading as much of the speculations and questions posed here are addressed and can bring you up to date on where the issue stands publically.

Penny Dreadful: They’re horrid and useless. Why do pennies persist?
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/31/080331fa_fact_owen?currentPage=all

Another good debate on this issue was conducted amongst several economists and analysts by the Wall Street Journal a couple of years earlier, while a touch dated now, the issues are unresolved and remain relevant to this thread/issue, for those interested:

Managing Change: Is the Penny Worth Keeping?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116360150549923901.html

 

You're overestimating the "public sentiment". People NEVER like change. They cling to what they're used to. If the government decides to completely get rid of the 1 dollar bills, maybe some or many will whine for a while, then they'll suck it up, as always. People like drama a lot, that's why soap operas were invented.

 

Luis: Soap operas were invented when TV replaced earlier radio serial dramas. Drama existed in the theatre LONG beforehand. 'Soap' just means the stories continue on-and-on without end, while 'opera' has to do with topics of everyone's day to day life issues. Incidentally, I've never seen a direct marketing link tied to selling soap as some people tend to believe, but soaps targeted women and housewives (hence domestic products were advertised during commercial breaks) because the broadcast time slot was during daytime hours in an era when women more typically ran the home rather than going off to a career outside the home on a daily basis.

Also, 'public sentiment' is changed enmass, often. This just takes the right concoction of market research and timing of the consumer emotional response to change. If any government is going to streamline their currency or update designs it's only a matter of an accurately timed media campaign, one which elevates the public/consumer to think/feel that they have a say in the matter, through voting, in being engaged or 'interactive' with the new policy or campaign, etc., while simultaneously (subversively) proceeding with pre-determined plans that introduce the new currency. The build up to the Euro was a good example. Lots of complaining and lots of campaigning preceeded the switch. A lot of consumer retail advertising works via 'awareness campaigns' and are easily applied to anything you are planning to change or introduce.

I too like the approach Canada took to streamline their currency by phasing out paper notes of the lower denominations. While the US $1 note is a global symbol of the USA and the power of the US economy, I would like to see the US follow suit by replacing small notes with $1, $2, $5 coins and paper currency for $10 and up IF streamlining occurs. I am also an advocate that forums like this can rally behind currency streamlining decisions and coin redesign by staying in contact with our Congressional Reps and let them know what we think about currency changes that are important to us. Some of them are purported to be numismatists or know one, themselves.

 

Luis, you might be right. I may very well be overestimating actual public sentiment, but I don't think I'm overestimating our politicians fear of this sentiment. Of course the public would adapt, what choice would they have?

 

Krispy:

Thank you for the lesson on the history of drama and the origin of the term soap as applied in this context. However, I was already very aware of the former, and by no means did I ever state that the TV format had no predecessors. Rather, I merely stated that the reason why they are around is that people like them.

As for the major point, comparing the Euro to the situation being debated makes no sense. We're not dealing with a major change in people's lives here. We're not forcing little old ladies and gents to learn how to deal with a totally different currency after 70 or 80 years of dealing with the old, familiar system. It is but a very simple change: so far we had this bill right here, and from now on we'll have this coin right here. I'm all for campaigning and informing the public of the reasons for the change, when it will take place, and how long it will last, but I fail to see the reason for all this drama, just like I failed to see the reason for all the drama when the Euro came along.

 

If the politicians were to look at what happened in a dozen European countries when a much larger change occurred, they would realize that such sentiment is short-lived.

People will whine a lot when changes are announced. We'll have news reports, op-eds, public debates, even the unavoidable on-line petition. I firmly believe that by the time the dollar bills are gone (it would certainly take some months), people will already have forgotten the catastrophic scenario they posed when thinking about how hard it would be to use dollar coins.

 

In '07 or '08 I think the mint spent forty-million dollars on a "sell" campaign of the one dollar coin. It was a waste of money, gee imagine our government wasting money. Anyway, would anyone disagree with: a. We can get along fine without the cent. and b. We can get along fine without the paper dollar.

The only thing that does bother me about the dollar is the as the leading world currency. A lot of things are based on our dollar. I think though it might be the word being symbolic more than the paper note.

 

Of course it was a waste of money, as well as the dumbest idea ever. If given two equal options, people will prefer doing what they always did. To believe an add campaign can revert this is to be totally oblivious to how people behave.

 

Luis: I was precisely talking about the marketing and campaigning aspects, not about how people have to deal with the change in their personal lives. Public sentiment is corralled by marketing applications when the public is detached from their own ability to affect change by begetting it themselves instead of being steered to it by marketers, politicians and bankers. The switch to the Euro did enact a massive awareness campaign and was met with a lot of public anxiety and complaining. People never need a lesson in how to spend money regardless of it's form or their age. As evidenced by this economy they do though need lessons in saving it.

Thanks.

 

My point is that to the abyssal differences in the two situations (changing to the Euro or using a coin instead of a bill) correspond a similarly abyssal difference in the need for campaigning. Seriously, it's not the end of the world.

My understanding is that the public anxiety and complaining you're talking about increased linearly with age, so I do think age matters in a currency change situation.

 

*Off Topic*

How does that work, tmoney? I found a couple of 2001P Kennedy Halves the other day and according to my 2010 Red Book, they weren't issued for circulation. I kept them for now. Should I hold on to them?

 

Some people buy mint rolls, and pop em' open and spend them.
Some people go out and spend their fathers collection, and don't know what they are doing.
I would say, as to holding onto them, do what you want to, I don't see them becoming rare, because they were available for sale at mint's website, and met collector demand, so they won't be really rare, because they are high mintages, but I think if you like em', keep em'

 

I'm an engineer who likes things simple, convenient, and cost effective. I've saved pennies my whole life and would hate to see them go. On the other hand, it is a useless coin for its currency purpose and should be discontinued. However, politicians are spineless and will take a miracle to make it happen. They can't balance the budget nor stop the penny, which might lose them votes. If I was running the mint business and it cost 1.6 cents for every cent, I would shut it down tomorrow. Isn't it obvious? As far as switching from the paper dollar to a dollar coin, I would need to see the cost/benefit. Does the paper dollar really cost more than clad dollar? How much does it cost to switch the systems in place to handle paper money? I'm sure someone on this site will tell me the answers.

 

That's a good enough reason for me!

 

Dare I say that all forms of regular currency may go? What about everything being on credit cards or something similar. A tragidy yes, but i t may happen IMHO