Bargains galore...

Even when Book value is 200$ or more than you pay for a coin?

 

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Especially when. If you are getting that much of a discount on a $700 coin, I immediately think one of two things - either the price guide you are using is way off, or there is something wrong with the coin that you missed. You are usually not going to get a premium coin for a strong discount, just like most people would not pay a premium for a problem coin.

 

You say that the market is plummeting, but you paid 20+% more for yours than others had sold for prior to your purchase. Yet, you still say that you got a "bargain". That doesn't make sense to me.

A "bargain" has to be relative to something, as in what others sell for. Others have sold for considerably less than yours. So, while it might be fair to say that they were bargains (relative to yours), it's not accurate to say that yours was a "bargain" (relative to others).

And, if "book" is $700, obviously it's not close to accurate, or representative of what the coins are actually selling for.

I could have kept quiet and you would probably have felt better than you do. But I thought it was the right thing to make you aware of the current pricing, even if that makes me the bad guy here.

 

But what I am saying is that it isn't just this coin, it's Morgan's in general. They are falling in price faster than the published "value" can catch up, no matter how inflated that may be. You can't use your traditional logic in this declining market.

 

No your not the bad guy, I appreciate your researching those auctions.

And thanks for bursting my bubble. lol

 

I understand that many coins are dropping in price - we are in agreement on that point. But just because a lot of coins are less now than they were a few months ago, doesn't make therm bargains. Especially in your case, when you paid considerably MORE (not less) than a number of others realized.

Any time.

Sincerely, Mr. B(ubble)B(urster)

 

This doesn't make any sense. You're calling it a bargain compared to the PCGS guide value, yet you say the PCGS guide value is wrong - that its too high.

You can't have it both ways.

 

Interesting discussion. I've noticed the same thing in the coin market, and agree that it is potentially a good time to buy, but it is also quite risky if you are looking at coins as an "investment". Coin prices may decline a lot more before they go back up. As a collector, the dropping prices are great for me now, as I can more easily pick up coins that I need. I think the coins that are higher risk are the ones where the numismatic value greatly out weighs the (face value/metal content value).

I believe that common date gold coins are safer, because two markets have to crash in order for the coin to be worth less(both the PM market, and the numismatic market). Coins may lose significant numismatic value, but if gold continues to be a strong hedge against inflation, the coins won't drop much in price.

 

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I believe that common date gold coins are safer, because two markets have to crash in order for the coin to be worth less(both the PM market, and the numismatic market). Coins may lose significant numismatic value, but if gold continues to be a strong hedge against inflation, the coins won't drop much in price.

Currently, a number of generic gold coin types are selling at very large premiums over their bullion content. As just one example, MS64 Saints are over $1500. I could easily see a scenario under which gold holds steady at its current level, but some of the "numismatic market" price comes out of the coins.

 

No, what I am saying that the gap between the prices realized and the traditionally inflated PCGS/NGC published values is growing in size at the moment. I suppose you are all correct that "bargain" might not be the best word to describe what is happening because the prices are all falling, but compared to what I have been paying these past 6 months, they sure feel like bargains.

 

Now you're talking!

 

Agreed...
I like these prices much better than 6 months ago... :hug:

 

Collectors that use price guides need to be aware that the guide prices have not adjusted lower. Typical auction prices, typical wholesale offers (when a person offers to sell a coin to a dealer) are down 20% on average. Price guide prices, are down about 2% on average. Dealer retail asking prices, in ads, on websites, and on the bourse for new customers, are in line with the price guides.

I agree, that the auctions linked do not appear to be bargains, because similar coins have sold for less. The prices do show an overall lower market for those coins.

Cheap often becomes cheaper. Low prices often become lower. I no longer buy coins just because they are cheap. I am a student of financial markets. The most common mistake in a bear market is for investors to commit their cash reserves too early. This is generally true, in all kinds of markets, stocks, real estate, commodities. Only after the dust has settled will a person know where the bottom is. Buying into weakness is fine for a hobbyist, but folks should not fool themselves into thinking they are buying at or near a bottom. By definition, maximum number of sellers, and minimum number of buyers, is what makes for a market bottom.

 

I am kind of like the persianguys, buying coins when I thought were bargains, except they kept on falling, and I kept on buying, now I am out of money... Same way with stocks....