CNG's Mike Gasvoda on the Ancient Coin Market

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by IdesOfMarch01, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. IdesOfMarch01

    IdesOfMarch01 Well-Known Member

    Probably many collectors here are registered with CNG and regularly get CNG's emails, as I do. Just now I received Mike Gasvoda's (CNG's CEO) "CNG Market Report Winter 2021." Apropos of some of the threads and posts about the recent price spikes in many ancient coin categories, I thought it would be interesting to post his entire written email, for those of you who don't receive these mailings.

    (If I've unintentionally violated any fair-use copyright laws, I hereby designate DonnaML as my acting attorney in this matter! I didn't see any copyright notices in the email I received.)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------

    CNG Market Report
    Winter 2021

    By Mike Gasvoda

    Now that we at CNG have completed our Triton XXIV sale, including the electronic session 5 (Electronic Auction 484), I can offer some thoughts on where we see the current market for ancient and world coins. Adding the five sessions of this year’s Triton sale, we had a total sale amount exceeding $14.2 million. This total is about $1.5 million more than the same auction cycle one year ago, which by itself points to a strengthening market. Even more impressive, the total pre-sale estimate for this year’s Triton XXIV sale was approximately $1 million less than it was for 2020. On that basis alone, you could say prices have risen, on average, by well over 10%. This despite (or, in part, due to?) the Covid pandemic, lockdowns, worldwide political unrest, and economic turmoil.

    In truth, the situation is quite complex. I will break down how we see things both at the moment, and moving ahead through 2021. One thing is certain, however you want to break it down: Now is a great time to consign and a more challenging time to buy. We are actively looking for consignments for our upcoming print sales. Should you choose to consign now, we are very confident you will be pleased with the results. A list of Triton highlights appears at the end of this report.

    As for the various market areas, I will break it down into several segments: Collector-driven areas where sales remain strong but within reasonable ranges; investor driven areas where prices are exploding; and collector driven areas that are seeing increased interest.

    The Stable Areas

    First, let’s explore the rather stable, but rising, areas we cover. Celtic, Roman Provincial, Judean, Sassanian, and Parthian coins all fall into this category. These are largely collector driven parts of the field and prices remain within a stable range and are affordable for most collectors. There are exceptions, generally high grade and rare types which, as always, can explode in price when two or more bidders go after them.

    Greek bronzes and Roman Republican coins are stable but rising rather more slowly in value. It appears these coins fall into the category of being up, on average, about 10% from a year ago. The same caveat holds, as above, for rare and high-grade examples. The exception to this would have to be later Roman Republic (after 60 BC) and Roman Imperatorial coinage, which have seen a rather dramatic increase in interest (see below).

    Rising Areas

    Greek silver and gold coinage have also seen a dramatic rise in interest and resulting prices during the past year. This includes the Classical, Hellenistic and some Oriental Greek areas. This has been a steadily rising part of the coin market driven, it seems, both by increased collector interest, and in some cases by investor interest. Greek coinage is highly artistic and often comes in rather large sizes. They are fun coins to collect, hold, and share at coin club meetings. While prices are definitely up in this area, they have not gotten beyond the means of many collectors. I would say overall prices for high quality Greek coins (Good VF or better condition) are up 15 to 20%. That said, the very high quality (Choice EF to Superb, or what NGC would call Choice AU to Mint State) coins, particularly in popular series (silver decadrachms, gold staters, quality Hellenistic portrait tetradrachms, and others), are all exploding in price. In many instances, these coin types are up 50 to 100% from just as recently as a year or two ago. See some of the prices realized below! We think this area of collecting will continue to see strong, if not increasing, prices.

    Roman Imperial coinage is somewhat of a mixed bag. This is still largely a collector-driven area of focus, but overall prices are certainly up 10 to 15%. Curiously, at the lower end of this market, prices are up perhaps even more. Where recently you could buy a worn denarius for $75, it might now be going for $100. This may not seem dramatic but if you have $300 to spend in an auction, it means you can now buy three coins instead of four.

    Better emperors (both in popularity and rarity) and better reverse types are garnering prices that are probably up 15 to 20% from a year ago. Roman gold has finally started to awaken from a years-long doldrum. Many Roman aurei are common enough to be considered collectible. Assembling a set of twelve Caesars in gold is a reasonably possible thing to do. Yet at the same time, some Roman gold is extremely rare, and these coins are awakening to both a collector base and an investor base. I would call the lower end Roman gold market stable to up perhaps 10 to 15%. The higher end Roman gold market has risen perhaps a bit more as well in the past year. It’s just that a difference in what 10% means on a $2,000 coin isn’t so exciting as it is on a $200,000 coin. Since Roman gold was relatively flat between about 2014 and 2020, after spiking between 2004 and 2014, this is a market correction that I think has been long overdue and I expect it to continue.

    The Exploding Market

    As previously noted, Roman Imperatorial coinage is exploding in value. As an example, one of the great Triton XXIV coins from the wonderful collection of Peter J. Merani was lot 54, an extremely rare gold stater of Brutus. One of only nine examples known, with only three in private hands, it was in Fine condition – one might term it a true collector’s coin, rather than the flashy Superb or Mint State pieces typically chased by investors. Considering the rising interest in this field, we estimated this piece at $150,000, which earned us a few raised eyebrows – why so much for a coin in only Fine condition, which sold in Triton III in 1999 for only $27,000 hammer? In the end it hammered for $280,000 – $336,000 with buyer’s premium – more than double the estimate and over 10 times the Triton III price. In this instance, the coin’s great rarity and immense historical importance trumped its rather humble condition.

    It would seem that those coming back into ancient coinage have familiarity with ancient history that begins during this timeframe and then continues into the Roman Imperial era. These likely newly returning collectors have caused prices in this area to increase 20% or more in the last year. It seems everyone wants a coin of Julius Caesar (as an example).

    Byzantine coinage ends my discussion on the ancient part of the market. And what a place to end. Byzantine coin interest has literally exploded. Many prices are up 50 to 100% (or more) from as little as a year ago. Byzantine gold is, in general, quite common. Enough so, that it is an easy field to enter and enjoy without breaking the bank. Yet, like Roman gold, completeness of a collection requires the addition of several rarities. It seems we have a broad base of collectors who are in both parts of this process. Common VF solidi that were bringing $300 a year ago now commonly sell for $450 to $500. And EF solidi that were bringing $500 to $700 a year ago are now bringing $1,000 to $1,500. Silver is equally popular. Only the bronzes seem to be lingering near prices from the recent past. Nothing seems to be slowing this part of the market down.

    The World and British Coin Arenas

    Turning to the “non-ancient” world, medieval coinage is a mixed bag. This coinage is highly collector driven with the exception of a few popular rarities. Prices are stable or up slightly. As a fan of Bracteates, I am surprised this field hasn’t grown in value more quickly along with others. I think it is because the coinage is difficult for a beginner, or investor, to understand. It takes a scholar to know these coins. If you are one, my expectation is you can find good value here.

    World coinage has been generally strong. Large silver – talers, crowns and the like – from the German States and France seem to be gaining in popularity, likewise the New World. Central and Eastern Europe seems rather flat at the moment, perhaps presenting a buying opportunity. Some areas of world gold are also seeing strong increases. We don’t specialize in machine struck coinage (except of course more recent British coinage) so my comments are generally limited to the prior era. Quality and eye appeal are seeing strong increases in price. This part of the market is following the general trend and seems to be up roughly 10% overall.

    Finally, ending with British coinage, I think it is safe to say this field is also seeing a renewed and strong collector influence. Prices are trending upward in the 10 to 20% range. One of the things that makes this field so popular is the uninterrupted line of rulers who can be collected and studied. It’s one of the few fields where you can span more than a millennium of uninterrupted rule over a single realm.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, what we are seeing is undoubtedly the impact of the pandemic-restricted world we live in. People from all walks of life are finding themselves in the same situation – stuck at home looking for things to do. And for many, that means rekindling old hobbies. Bring out the old coin collection, dust it off, and fill in some holes you had forgotten about. For those of us who have been steady collectors, it means the room just got a little more crowded. For those that are coming back into the field, or entering it for the first time, welcome aboard! You will quickly find you are among friends – just don’t bid against them!

    At the same time, in times of economic distress, people looking to preserve or enhance their wealth tend to grab and hold onto tangible objects of demonstrated long-term value, whether it is gold bullion, real estate, or collectible coins. Furthermore, ancient and world coins have the advantage of being a worldwide market, popular everywhere, not in any one particular country. This is perhaps the major factor in the price spikes we are seeing in high-end coins.

    Outlook

    Despite progress with vaccines and treatments, it is quite possible we are stuck in a restricted and isolated world for much of this year. I think coin prices will remain strong and probably continue to increase. Our hope is these new, and renewed, friends, will hang around into the future. Only time will tell.

    As for me, I could sure use a coin show about now. I am missing seeing so many of you and just having the chance to talk: about coins, family, even politics and the weather. If any of you wish to chat via Zoom, all you have to do is let me (or any of the numismatists) know. We would love to catch up and actually see you face to face (sort of) sometime soon.

    Let me know if you wish to discuss any of the above comments further. And please let us know if you are interested in consigning to an upcoming auction. The time may never be better!

    Below are a few highlights from Triton. Thank you for bidding with CNG. Happy collecting!
     
    Orfew, rrdenarius, Cucumbor and 15 others like this.
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  3. Lueds

    Lueds Well-Known Member

    Seeing that this is an email they are sending to subscribers, your putting this up can only increase their exposure to new non members I don't see an issue personally
     
    panzerman likes this.
  4. Mat

    Mat Ancient Coincoholic

    I can pretty much agree with everything written.

    I also seem to fall into the categories mentioned, I.E. getting more into Parthians the past 2 years, becoming a type collector of larger crown size world coins the past 5 years. I have seen the prices of them go up just since I jumped into those canoes alone.

    Regular Byzantine copper seems to be used toilet paper still. I could buy them cheap all day but don't. I'm pretty selective when I am in the mood to buy one, that's why it's so small.

    Greek Silver/Roman Republic, both are areas I don't have a huge amount of compared to Romans & medievals. I have always found them expensive to collect even when I got into ancients. And for some reason, small fractional greeks don't wet my noodle. I prefer to shift a $50 small greek silver to a $65 Caracalla Tet, like the ones I posted recently.

    I also wonder if people, like me, are f-en fed up with Ebay and all their changes/tax collecting and so on. Since the taxes & Covid, I have slowed down my buying drastically. I've moved to HJB Auctions, more Vcoin auctions, and a few others. And doing so has caused me to be more selective. And the covid issue is because of the shipping. I stay within the U.S & wonderful Canada. Overseas is no more, for the time being. Too damn expensive and the wait to deliver isn't worth it.
     
    philologus_1 and panzerman like this.
  5. svessien

    svessien Senior Member

    Julian II siliqua.jpg

    I bought this coin in late 2020 for 107 Swiss Franc.
    It had an old auction label with it, probably from the late 90s/early 2000 saying «395$».

    Those 395 dollars could probably have bought an ounce of gold.
    Not everything is booming.
     
  6. FitzNigel

    FitzNigel Medievalist

    Seems about right - I’ve noticed the higher prices for ancients, but noted medieval haven’t seemed to have change much except for British. Guess I’ll just continue with my lackluster medievals, and enjoy the lack of competition!
     
    Roman Collector and svessien like this.
  7. Andrew McCabe

    Andrew McCabe Well-Known Member

    This is the CNG I know. David Guest and Eric McFadden in my home looking at coins. The old guard. Don't really know the current owner.
    PSX_20210129_235854.jpg
     
  8. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    I know when I first got into "Ancients" thru NFA Auctions, prices back then seemed high too, when compared with inflation. Their "Mint state" and "FDC" coins sold very high. The same holds true in 2021. Of course certain auction events like Triton/ Nomos/Roma/Ars Classica draw in serious collectors/ higher bids. Some more obscure auctions like Golden Lion/ Solidus/ Naumann/ Savoca can have really exceptional coins with less competition.
     
    DonnaML and Johnnie Black like this.
  9. dougsmit

    dougsmit Member

    I thought the letter was well done and addresses the concerns/interests of the CNG target audience (which is not me). Covid has pretty much ended the hobby for me and it will not return until the Covid-bump is over and people with big money go back to travelling the world and buying fancy toys rather than collectibles. We just got the official notice that the Baltimore show in March was not happening but everyone knew that was the decision at least two cancelled shows ago. I don't know if I will be ready to become active again after the crash or not. About half of the coins I have had in the mail in the last year took unexpected side trips and one parcel is missing in action still. That takes the fun out of mail order. No coin shows, no safe mail and no local coin stores sent me off to spend my hobby money on other toys (taking bird pictures). I still enjoy most of the coins I have but wonder how many I will buy in 2021. I tore down my coin photo set up and plan on spending more time outside chasing nature. I do hope this is just a temporary blip in the hobby rather than a flatline. I hope some of the show dealers I knew are still in business when they start having shows again. CNG will be OK; the little guys???
     
    Alegandron, Kavax, DonnaML and 5 others like this.
  10. svessien

    svessien Senior Member

    Good for you!

    My favorite collections are of strong impressions and fond memories. They are usually not found inside my home.

    If the ancient coin market keeps going up, I’ll be looking into other areas, like art and furniture. And I can’t wait to climbing season starts again.
     
    DonnaML, Johnnie Black and panzerman like this.
  11. gsimonel

    gsimonel Well-Known Member

    Actually, I am glad that eBay is collecting the sales taxes for me. Over the course of a year, I sell maybe $2,000-3,000 worth of coins over eBay, (profits from which I then get to spend on coins for my collection). Every state has a different policy and rate, and it would be impossible for me to calculate, collect and report sales taxes on everything I sell. If eBay did not provide this service for me I would probably have to quite selling, or go back to selling 5 or 6 coins a year from my obscure, personal web site.
     
  12. panzerman

    panzerman Well-Known Member

    I agree with you, it will hurt e-bay. When you buy a $1000 coin on V-Coin site=no added taxes/ that saves me $130 on that coin. Now for a person that won a $10K Aureus=$1300
    With the 20 percent comm. fees (most auctions) that adds $200 on $1K coin/ $2000 on the $10K one. Which makes certain coins more attractive from excellent dealers. Auction houses used to charge 10 percent/ when coin prices where way cheaper then now.
     
  13. Johnnie Black

    Johnnie Black Neither Gentleman Nor Scholar

    I’m currently in a holding position in terms of my collection. I’ve bid on a few auctions but the final prices were just too high. I’ll keep the hunt going but just not buying all that much lately and look forward to a return to normalcy whenever that may happen.

    Hope to hit the monthly Marietta, GA coin show in Feb if the ancients dealer is in attendance.
     
    panzerman likes this.
  14. Thelivinglady

    Thelivinglady Member

    At the present time, the show in Dalton, Georgia, is still on.
     
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  15. Johnnie Black

    Johnnie Black Neither Gentleman Nor Scholar

    That’s great! Last time I attended there were 5 or 6 ancient dealers and I found some cool stuff. Hopefully it goes on as planned in April.
     
  16. ancient coin hunter

    ancient coin hunter 3rd Century Usurper

    Just got the same email you did.
     
  17. AncientJoe

    AncientJoe Well-Known Member

    Mike struck a good tone of balanced and informative which is challenging to do objectively (probably why not many dealers publish "market reviews").

    However, it's hard to make wide-swath observations about a market based on a few sales especially during these times where every aspect of life is atypical.

    All I really care about is: are a few bidders acting in an entirely irrational manner? The Sheikh was infamously irrational and made buying utterly impossible. If that happens, we're all toast, and thankfully that doesn't seem to be the case today.
     
    Orielensis, svessien, Orfew and 6 others like this.
  18. physics-fan3.14

    physics-fan3.14 You got any more of them.... prooflikes?

    @GoldFinger1969 , you might be interested in this article, given our recent discussion of the hot world market.
     
    panzerman likes this.
  19. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    The sheikh bought high grade or rare coins irrespective of their provenance. The new sheikh has other criteria and provenance is one of them.

    CNG auctions became like a poker game, if you are not a calling station with endless money then you need skills and mainly lots of luck to get a coin.

    I got the coin below in the Triton esale part. It barely got any interest and sold just 2 steps above the starting price. While it has issues, it is quite rare. I am surprised that the description missed a critical element which was actually the key driving force of my interest. I am even more surprised that Mr Gasvoda who had one of the same dies in his collection didn't notice it either. Am I lucky or am I just a fool? I don't know anymore... In this craziness and with my ultra low success rate, whenever I manage to get something, I start to have second thoughts. I am happy for a few seconds and then it's gone. This hobby in the current context is not joyful any more for me.

    lucania-metapontion-circa-470-440-bc-6703516-O.jpg
     
  20. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    In 2016 sometime after I decided to change my collecting focus I came to the conclusion that I had to replace three of my tetradrachms from the mint of Syracuse They being Boehringer 315, 525, and 604 respectively. I was not concerned by replacing the exact die combination but getting one that was more or less from the same period of time. In the end, I bought some four tetradrachms starting with a B 515 and then getting much later a 85, a 438, and a 571. During this period I tried to acquire a number of these coin and was consistently out bid. Except for the 515 all the remaining coins came to me in 2020. What was interesting is that in the case of this coin, I thought I got it at a very good price.
    Syracuse Ar Tetradrachm 480-475 BC Time of Gelon I Obv. Charioteer driving slow quadriga right. Rv, Head of Arethusa right wearing pearl diadem. HGC 1396 Boehringer 85 17.36 grms 25 mm Purchased NAC Auction 120 Lot 264 6 October 2020. Photo by W. Hansen syracusetd19.jpg I know another CT er bought a Syracuse Tetradrachm from this auction as well This coin cost me less than many that I had attempted to purchase before. Ever since I started this project I might get maybe 5% of the coins that I bid on. So getting outbid is nothing new for me. I enjoy the hobby. It is fun to get a coin that I have been looking for for a while, and I get a great deal of satisfaction that when I am the underbidder on a coin at least I will "Make him pay"
     
  21. kazuma78

    kazuma78 Supporter! Supporter

    Thats a nice piece! I also picked up a Syracuse tet from that auction. For some reason, it seemed the Syracuse section went pretty reasonable in NAC 120. If I would have had a little more cash, I would have bid on a couple others. There are a couple regrets from lots I was bidding on in 2020 that went for what I would consider "reasonable" now, but didn't quite have enough cash to go the distance or the primary focus lots were later in the auction which I got skunked on, but I would have bid higher on the earlier lots had I known the results of the primary target. I hate it when you have 2-3 lots you want to focus on but the primary target is the last of the 3 and usually the best and likely most expensive piece. Right now in the current environment, patience is definitely the name of the game.
     
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